It's hard to believe we've already reached the quarter-season mark across the league — everyone but Miami and Tampa Bay, anyway. There are some absolutely scorching running back production paces right now. It's dangerous to project from small samples, but the samples, and especially the usage behind the samples, can be helpful for knowing which players to target to win your leagues. Which players look like good candidates to maintain these paces, or, at minimum, their production rankings for the rest of the season? Let's review a few of the more eye-popping statistical paces and see what usage trends tell us. There may be some league-winning bets ready for the making.
*PPR projections exclude projected fumbles.
Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Gurley is the overall RB1 through four weeks of the season. That's right, it's Gurley, not Kareem Hunt. He's flourished into a true bell cow in head coach Sean McVay's new system.
16-game pace:
2,384 yards from scrimmage
80 receptions
28 touchdowns
Gurley's current production pace would result in a staggering 486.4 PPR points at season's end, a truly legendary performance. This would be just the second 400-point effort in the past five years and would obliterate David Johnson‘s 2016 campaign. How is he doing it? He ranks second in carries per game and seventh in targets per game at his position, putting him on pace for 444 opportunities (carries plus targets). He's also getting five red-zone touches per game. Do I think he'll score 486.4 PPR points in 2017? No. But unless McVay significantly reduces his usage, Gurley does look like a strong bet for 20 touchdowns and could challenge for 2,000 yards from scrimmage. It looks like he's finally going to live up to our lofty expectations. I wouldn't be moving Gurley in redraft leagues… enjoy your seat at the table while you watch him eat.
Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Speaking of Hunt, he's off to the best fantasy start by a rookie, nay, any player, in NFL history.
16-game pace:
2,636 yards from scrimmage
52 receptions
24 touchdowns
Hunt's current production pace would result in 459.6 PPR points, just shy of Gurley. What's concerning for me about Hunt is his incredible efficiency. Unlike Gurley, who is producing with enormous volume, Hunt is only pacing for 324 opportunities (carries plus targets). He's caught all of his 13 targets so far — that won't continue — and his passing-game usage has actually diminished slightly after his Week 1 outburst against the Patriots. I've discussed Hunt at-length with Scott Barrett, and he raises a good point about elite efficiency giving the appearance of less opportunity. I agree with this premise; however, we can't be sure that Hunt can offset a decrease in efficiency with additional volume until Andy Reid shows us that's how he'd manage it. In redraft, I'd be tempted to try to move Hunt for Le'Veon Bell.
Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears
Howard owners were losing their minds after his atrocious Week 2 performance and the emergence of diminutive rookie sensation, Tarik Cohen. However, in Weeks 3 and 4, Howard bounced back with strong performances which were reminiscent of 2016.
16-game pace:
1208 yards from scrimmage
40 receptions
16 touchdowns
Howard is on pace for 256.8 PPR points. His yardage and receptions totals are very attainable given current usage. He's behind 2016 pace, so we also know he's capable of doing more. However, his touchdown pace is due for regression and is likely unsustainable in a bad Chicago offense that is transitioning to a rookie quarterback in Week 5. He's ranked fourth in total touchdowns among running backs, but just 18th in red-zone touches. Something has to give here. Try to sell his recent bounceback if possible, perhaps for the guy I'll mention next…
Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions
I'm warming up to Abdullah in redraft leagues based on his current volume. I'll admit, I never saw him as a player who could sustain 18-20 touches per week, but we're a quarter of the way through the season and he's proving me wrong. Abdullah is averaging 19.25 opportunities (carries plus targets) per game.
16-game pace:
1288 yards from scrimmage
36 receptions
4 touchdowns
Abdullah is on pace for a very modest 188.8 PPR points, but I expect him to eclipse that number safely. The Lions are off to a 3-1 start and figure to provide Abdullah with more favorable game scripts than what Howard will see in Chicago. His remaining schedule is among my favorites for any running back in the league. There's also room for Abdullah to increase his receiving production, as he out-targeted Theo Riddick for the first time in Week 4.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
Kamara entered the season in an undefined three-way mess of a timeshare in New Orleans. Just four games in, we are already getting a glimpse of clarity regarding forward-looking usage. Coach Sean Payton has been phasing Adrian Peterson out gradually, and was even quoted as saying he'd prefer to only use two running backs each week.
16-game pace:
920 yards from scrimmage
80 receptions
8 touchdowns
Kamara is on pace for 220 PPR points. Gotta love PPR scoring, no? A couple warning signs to consider: I don't expect Kamara to hit any of these numbers with Willie Snead close to returning from injury, and Kamara also only has a 34 percent snap share, good for just 47th among all running backs. However, I think owners can view Kamara as having a nice enough weekly floor to be a weekly flex option, particularly in favorable matchups or to cover bye weeks. I'm not sure many of us expected this from Kamara in the crowded backfield. If you own him, just view it as a draft-day win and enjoy the solidified depth.
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