Offseason ADP movements for rookie running backs and the ascension of Jonathan Taylor

This week I’m putting out a series on the movement of early offseason average draft positions (ADP) for incoming rookies on the heels of my analysis of free agency winners and losers. This second piece will look at the running back position, following yesterday’s analysis of rookie quarterback ADP. Running backs are less replaceable than quarterbacks and are typically relatively strong rookie contributors. For those reasons, rookie running backs go earlier than any other position in fantasy drafts.

This article is based on ADP information from BestBall10s.com, which has significant historical data for comparing this year’s draft class to previous seasons (known as MFL10s prior to 2018).

The 2020 Running Back ADPs

This first plot shows the trends of ADPs at BestBall10s.com for the top tiers of rookie running backs, with Jonathan Taylor and D’Andre Swift drafted around 30th overall, and J.K. Dobbins in a tier bye himself around 45th overall.