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Estimated Reading Time: 15 minutes
Welcome to the MagicSportsBreakdown!
For those who have followed my work at previous outlets, thank you for your continued support. For PFF readers who may not know me — which is likely most of you — it’s great to be here. As a PFF subscriber myself, writing here is an honor and a privilege.
This breakdown can be used for cash games, single-entry, three-max and high-dollar GPPs. For max-entering GPPs, use the recommended players to build your player pool (players are listed in order based on exposure). All pace and pass rates refer to “neutral situations” (+/-8 points) unless otherwise noted.
How do I best use the Sunday AM Update?
The “Sunday AM Update” offers a game-by-game analysis of the DraftKings main slate, focusing on key injuries, advanced stats, trends and expected pace and playcalling.
I also provide my “optimal lineups” for DraftKings (“DK”). These lineups (“LUs”) consist of 7-of-9 players to comply with DraftKings regulations of not giving out complete teams. One is designed for GPPs, and one is for Cash Games.
In addition to the optimal lineups, I also share my personal “core” player pool (usually 16-20 players) that I’m rolling out in three-max (contests that allow three lineups per user) and other multi-entry GPPs (contests that allow as many as 150 lineups per user).
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BUF@HOU | MIA@NE | IND@JAX | BAL@CIN CAR@CHI | CLE@WAS | LV@DEN | ARI@SF | NYG@SEA | GB@LAR
EARLY SLATE
CAROLINA PANTHERS VS. CHICAGO BEARS
- CHI -3.5, O/U 41
- Implied team totals: CAR (18.75), CHI (22.25)
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
• Carolina ranks 24th in explosive pass rate allowed and has given up the 13th-most fantasy points to wide receivers on the ninth-fewest attempts against.
• Caleb Williams is 14-for-36 under pressure (3.8 yards per attempt, 39% completion rate) and 73-for-105 when kept clean (6.2 yards per attempt, 70% completion rate). Only Jalen Hurts and Will Levis have a lower PFF pressure grade.
• Carolina ranks 32nd in defensive pressure rate.
• Williams leads the league in deep pass attempts per game (5.8) but ranks 31st among 32 qualifying quarterbacks in deep-ball accuracy.
• Carolina has earned a top-five team pass-blocking grade but will be challenged against Chicago, which has the fourth-highest pressure rate.
• The Panthers have scored 36 and 24 points with Andy Dalton as the starter, compared to averaging just 6.5 points per game in Bryce Young‘s starts.
• Chicago’s defense led the league in interceptions per game in 2023 (1.3) and ranks fourth this season (1.3).
• With Keenan Allen back, Rome Odunze’s route participation dropped from 82% to 66%.
• As expected, D.J. Moore’s average depth of target (aDOT) increased from 8 to 15 yards in Week 4 with Keenan Allen back, while Allen had a 3.0-yard aDOT.
• Moore is averaging 16.7 expected fantasy points per game but only delivering 11.9 fantasy points per game.
• Carolina wants to run the ball (53% pass rate in the first half of games), but their defense forces them into a high second-half pass rate (63%).
• The Panthers rank 30th in yards before contact. Despite the offensive line's struggles, Chuba Hubbard has averaged 5.75 yards per carry over his last three games, surpassing 100 yards in both games with Dalton under center.
• Chicago ranks fifth in overall EPA allowed, 16th against the run, and third against the pass. This translates to fantasy, where they have allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, the eighth-fewest to wide receivers, and the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs, thanks to five rushing touchdowns allowed.
• D'Andre Swift saw his route participation increase from 43% in the first three games to 58%. He was second on the team in target share, with seven targets (7-72-0). Carolina has allowed 18-of-19 targets to running backs to be completed.
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