NFL Week 16 DFS Cheat Sheet: 5 recommended plays for all contests

• Geno Smith should thrive: The Seattle Seahawks QB is primed to excel against a suspect Tennessee Titans defense.

• Tanner Hudson could be in for a big day: The Cincinnati Bengals TE should see ample opportunities with injuries to the team's receiver corps.

• Dominate your fantasy league in 2023: For up-to-date fantasy draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool!

Estimated reading time: 11 minutes

Daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups require smart matchups analysis and rostership leverage opportunities to succeed. The analysis below details five fantasy assets capable of gaining significant leverage on the field. 

QB Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans – $6,600 on FanDuel

Seattle quarterback Geno Smith returns from a two-game absence (Week 13 groin strain) to a $6,600 FanDuel salary falling $2,900 short of the positional maximum. Smith’s low salary likely results in chalky Week 16 rostership, though skittish FanDuel users may seek to avoid him over re-injury concerns. Smith’s matchup against a vulnerable Tennessee pass defense increases Smith’s odds of pushing his No. 13-ranked 78.3 PFF passing grade, ranked among 40 NFL quarterbacks with at least 140 dropbacks, into the top 12. He is both cash-game and GPP-tournament-viable.

Smith should be stacked with No. 1 wide receiver D.K. Metcalf, whose matchup details are found in Week 16’s WR/CB Matchups to Target and Avoid. PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Metcalf and No. 2 wide receiver Tyler Lockett respectively good 84.3 and 77.4 receiving matchup advantage ratings against Tennessee’s cornerback corps.

FanDuel implies Seattle will score 22.0 points as 2.5-point FanDuel road favorites after upsetting the Philadelphia Eagles at home in Week 15’s Monday Night Football game, 20-17.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Seattle a -13.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating but two-time defending second-team All-Pro interior defender Jeffery Simmons remains sidelined since suffering a Week 13 right-knee injury. Simmons’ 75.2 PFF pass-rush grade ranks No. 21 among 65 NFL interior defenders with at least 220 pass-rush snaps and ranks top 12 in quarterback pressure rate (12.8%), pass-rush productivity (7.2) and NFL sacks (6.0).

Tennessee’s blitz-specialist linebacker Jack Gibbens is playing through a back injury and managed just one Limited Participant designation last week. Among 75 NFL linebackers with at least 20 blitz pass-rushing snaps, Gibbens’ 67.6 PFF pass-rush grade ranks No. 26 and both his 23.8% quarterback pressure rate and 14.3 pass-rush productivity rank top 10. 

Among 40 NFL quarterbacks with at least 140 dropbacks, Smith ranks No. 18 in average depth of target (8.4, aDot), No. 11 in adjusted completion rate (77.0%), No. 10 in yards per passing attempt (7.3) and No. 6 in big-time-throw rate (5.8%). 

Tennessee’s paltry pass defense ranks No. 25 or worst in success rate allowed (48.8%), expected point added (EPA) allowed per play (0.063), catch rate allowed (73.3%) and yards allowed per coverage snap (6.56) and excitingly boasts equally poor marks in splash zone coverage. The term splash zone denotes the area of the field found between the painted numbers, at least 10 yards downfield. Targets thrown in this region yield more fantasy points than those thrown at an equivalent depth along the sidelines.

Smith’s 22.2% big-time-throw rate on splash zone-targeted passing attempts ranks No. 1 among 38 NFL quarterbacks with at least 15 splash zone-targeted passing attempts by a 1.9% margin.

Tennessee’s splash zone coverage unit ranks No. 25 or worse success rate allowed (61.5%), catch rate allowed (61.5%), yards allowed per coverage snap (13.40) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (42.3%) and ranks dead last in EPA allowed per play (1.072). 

Smith is an elite QB1 with a slate-winning upside.

TE Tanner Hudson, Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers – $$5,300 on FanDuel

Cincinnati tight end Tanner Hudson is primed for a featured pass-catching role against Pittsburgh’s decimated interior defense. His cause is further aided by the team’s No. 1 and highest-graded wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase’s (88.2 PFF receiving grade, AC joint sprain) absence and No. 2 wide receiver Tee Higgins’ impending shadow matchup against Pittsburgh’s No. 1 cornerback Joey Porter Jr. Hudson’s $5,300 FanDuel salary is $1,900 short of the positional maximum, making for easy roster inclusion. Hudson is unlikely to draw a weighty rostership rate, given Pittsburgh’s nominally strong defense and his generally accepted status as a never-was. Hudson is an affordable, elite TE1 offering flex consideration in Week 16. 

Among 48 NFL tight ends with at least 150 receiving snaps, Hudson’s 79.3 PFF receiving grade ranks No. 7. 

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Higgins a below-average 32.8 receiving matchup advantage rating against Porter Jr. 

Pittsburgh’s top-four safeties, Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee injury), Damontae Kazee (suspension, 62.7 PFF coverage grade), Keanu Neal (injured reserve, 56.4 PFF coverage grade) and Trenton Thompson (neck, 63.8 PFF coverage grade) are all unavailable, as are its top-two coverage linebackers Kwon Alexander (injured reserve) and Cole Holcomb (injured reserve).  

Among 68 NFL safeties with at least 275 coverage snaps, Fitzpatrick’s 66.6 PFF coverage grade ranks No. 30. Kazee serves as Pittsburgh’s primary tight end-coverage defender and his 4.9% targeted rate ranks No. 4 among 61 NFL safeties with at least 50 tight end-coverage snaps.

Alexander’s 74.3 PFF coverage grade ranks No. 16 among 73 NFL linebackers with at least 150 coverage snaps and Holcomb (55.2 PFF coverage grade) ties for No. 17 in targeted rate (10.8%). 

The debacle leaves linebackers Mykal Walker and Elandon Roberts to roam the defensive interior while head coach Mike Tomlin patches together a safety platoon. Hudson should have little issues picking up chunk gains on seam-stretching routes. PFF’s TE matchup chart gives Hudson a 30.0% receiving matchup advantage rating against Walker, Week 16’s third-best.

Roberts’ and Walker’s tight end-coverage data among 71 NFL linebackers with at least 30 tight end-coverage snaps:

Since backup quarterback Jake Browning checked in for starting quarterback Joe Burrow in Week 11, Hudson ranks No. 1 among Cincinnati pass catchers with at least 30 receiving snaps in both target rate (27.8%) and yards per route run (2.39, YPRR) and Hudson’s 19 first-read targets during that span trail only Chase’s 20. 

Among 25 NFL tight ends with at least 10 first-read targets in Weeks 11-15, Hudson ranks No. 1 across the board in target rate (38.8%), YPRR (3.51) and catch rate (94.7%).

Hudson earned just two splash zone targets during that span, catching both passes for a 16.0-yard average. Pittsburgh’s interior devastation and Chase’s absence should result in multiple seam-stretching opportunities in the high-fantasy-value zone. 

Hudson is an affordable, elite TE1.

RB Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $7,700 on FanDuel

Tampa Bay running back Rachaad White is an affordable FanDuel RB1 with explosive-play upside against Jacksonville’s linebacker corps, reinforced by a high-volume, dual-threat workload. White’s 74.1 PFF offense grade ties for No. 16 among 34 NFL running backs with at least 380 offensive snaps. 

White’s rushing profile is inversely mirrored by Jacksonville’s run-defense performance. White plays inefficiently on a per-play basis, but his sheer volume occasionally results in explosive plays. Tampa Bay’s run defense conversely defends the run well on a per-play basis but routinely permits explosive gains. Among 31 NFL running backs with at least 145 rushing attempts, White ranks outside the top 20 in yards per rushing attempt (3.8), missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.14), yards after contact per rushing attempt (2.7) and first-downs-gained and touchdowns-scored rate (18.5%). Thanks to his voluminous role, White still produces gaudy results, ranking top 15 in missed tackles forced rushing (32) and first-downs gained (41) and tying for No. 12 in rushing touchdowns (five) and No. 10 in explosive run plays (18). Tampa Bay’s run-defense unit ranks No. 9 in success rate allowed (36.4%) but No. 24 in EPA allowed per play (-0.043) and No. 26 in explosive run plays allowed rate (14.0%). 

Standing 6-foot, 214 pounds, White profiles as an unorthodox pass-catching specialist. Among 32 NFL running backs with at least 180 receiving snaps, White ranks top 10 in both total targets (55) and YPRR (1.23), top 5 in missed tackles forced receiving (18), yards per reception (9.4) and yards after the catch per reception (10.6) and No. 1 overall in catch rate (90.9%) and explosive pass plays (11). 

Jacksonville’s subpar linebackers Foyesade Oluokon and Devin Lloyd are ill-prepared to stop him. 

Oluokon’s and Lloyd’s running back-coverage data among NFL linebackers with at least 30 running back-coverage snaps: 

White is an affordable FanDuel RB1.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings – $8,400 on FanDuel

Detroit running back Jahmyr Gibbs makes for a smart RB1 stacking partner with quarterback Jared Goff against Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense, protected from the elements by U.S. Bank Stadium’s enclosed field. Gibbs’ 63.8 PFF receiving grade against the blitz ranks No. 15 among 32 NFL running backs with at least 45 receiving snaps against the blitz. As detailed in Week 16’s QB Matchups to Target, Streamer of the Week, Rankings and More, “Goff’s 86.9 PFF indoor passing grade ranks No. 3 among 35 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 indoor dropbacks.” Minnesota’s league-high (54.5%), ineffectual blitzing volume and atrocious running back coverage play key roles in Gibbs’ matchup. 

FanDuel users should expect Gibbs to be rostered at a moderately high rate but the quarterback-plus-running back stack’s contrarian nature should create leverage on the field. He is viable in both cash games and GPP tournaments. 

The game’s 46.5-point FanDuel over/under ties for Week 16’s second-highest. FanDuel implies Detroit will score 24.75 points. 

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Detroit a 38.0% pass-blocking matchup rating and a 40.0% run-blocking matchup advantage rating. Both ratings rank No. 1 among NFL teams. 

Among NFL linebackers with at least 30 running back-coverage snaps, Minnesota linebacker Ivan Pace Jr.’s 60.8 PFF running back-coverage grade ranks No. 37 and opposing quarterbacks find his coverage stunningly fruitful. Pace Jr.’s 35.4% targeted rate ranks No. 42 and he is one-of-eight qualifying linebackers to allow a 100.0% catch rate. His sidekick linebacker Jordan Hicks’ 72.5 PFF running back-coverage grade ranks No. 21 but he helpfully allows a 75.0% catch rate. 

Gibbs’ overall passing-game usage pushes for positional league-best revels. He ranks No. 2 among 32 NFL running backs with at least 45 receiving snaps against the blitz in both total targets (22) and target rate (31.4%) and No. 3 among 14 NFL running backs with at least 15 first-read targets in both total targets (25) and target rate (14.5%). 

Gibbs tears up defenses with the ball in his hand, tying for No. 15 in YPRR (1.10) and No. 10 in missed tackles forced receiving (11) among 35 NFL running backs with at least 175 receiving snaps. Among 41 NFL running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts, he ranks No. 13 in first-downs-gained and touchdowns-scored rate (24.5%), No. 11 in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.21), No. 6 in yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.2), No. 5 in explosive run plays (22) and No. 1 in yards per rushing attempt (5.7). 

Minnesota’s run defense ranks No. 18 in success rate allowed (38.4%).

Gibbs is a FanDuel RB1.

WR Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Chargers – $8,900 on FanDuel

Buffalo’s No. 1 wide receiver Stefon Diggs is a FanDuel WR1 against Los Angeles’ explosive-pass-play-friendly defense. Diggs offers contrarian leverage in both cash games and GPP tournaments following Buffalo’s run-heavy shift since quarterbacks coach Joe Brady was promoted to offensive coordinator in Week 11, keyed by the team’s 31-10 run-based demolition of the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15. Diggs’ $8,900 FanDuel salary is $1,100 short of the positional maximum, making him a moderately pricey, likely low-rostered WR1. Diggs maintains a No. 20-ranked 79.6 PFF receiving grade despite low-volume outings in consecutive weeks, ranked among 64 NFL wide receivers with at least 325 receiving snaps.

The game’s 43.5-point over/under is Week 16’s sixth-highest game total. FanDuel implies Buffalo will score 28.0 points as 12.5-point road favorites.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Buffalo a 14.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, tying for Week 16’s seventh-best.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Diggs an excellent 88.5 receiving matchup advantage rating against perimeter cornerback Michael Davis, an average 47.8 receiving matchup advantage rating against perimeter cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. and a good 76.0 receiving matchup advantage rating against slot cornerback Essang Bassey. 

Los Angeles elevated defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley to the playcalling role following former head coach Brandon Staley’s firing earlier this week, so tactics are subject to change. However, Davis typically covered the opposition’s X-wide receiver under Staley’s watch while Samuel Jr. handled the primary field-stretcher. Unless drastic changes are made, FanDuel users should expect Diggs to face Davis on at least a plurality of routes. Among 65 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 120 perimeter wide receiver-coverage snaps, Davis ranks No. 54 in explosive pass plays allowed rate (7.2%) and No. 61 in yards allowed per coverage snap (2.99).

Bassey is questionable to play on Saturday, working through the NFL concussion protocol’s final step. 

Diggs runs routes lined up on the perimeter pre-snap at a 63.6% rate, followed by a helpful 35.1% slot rate.

Among qualifying NFL wide receivers, Diggs ties for No. 16 in YPRR and No. 5 in explosive pass plays (29) and ranks No. 7 in target rate (26.9%) and No. 2 in missed tackles forced (19).

He remains a featured No. 1 wide receiver in his age-30 season, ranking top 15 in both first-read targets (92) and target rate (27.8%) and top 10 in explosive pass plays via first-read targets (20), ranked among 30 NFL wide receivers with at least 65 first-read targets. Diggs crucially ties for No. 6 in splash zone targets (24) and ranks No. 4 in explosive pass plays via splash zone targets (14), ranked among 35 NFL wide receivers with at least 15 splash zone targets.

Los Angeles’ pass defense allows explosive pass plays to opposing NFL wide receivers at the league’s sixth-highest rate (22.4%) and ranks No. 26 and No. 30, respectively, in explosive pass plays allowed rate via splash zone targets (43.4%) and yards allowed per splash zone coverage snap (14.34). 

Diggs is a contrarian FanDuel WR1.