• WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams vs. Washington Commanders: Nacua is a high-end WR1 against Washington’s dismal defense.
• TE Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers: Savvy FanDuel users should exploit the field’s concerns over McBride’s nominally difficult matchup against San Francisco.
• Dominate your fantasy league in 2023: For up-to-date fantasy draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool!
Estimated reading time: 9 minutes
Daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups require smart matchups analysis and rostership leverage opportunities to succeed. The analysis below details five fantasy assets capable of gaining significant leverage on the field.
WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams vs. Washington Commanders – $8,000 on FanDuel
Los Angeles wide receiver Puka Nacua is set to build on his No. 10-ranked 84.7 PFF receiving grade (among 66 NFL wide receivers with at least 310 receiving snaps) as one-third of a Week 15 team stack, featuring Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford and a tight end listed below, facing Washington’s pushover pass defense.
Nacua’s $8,000 salary is $2,200 short of the positional maximum. He is a moderately chalky WR1 in both cash games and GPP tournaments.
As extensively detailed in Week 15’s “QB Matchups, Streamer of the Week, Rankings and More,” Los Angeles and Washington’s offensive and defensive complexions make for an explosive, high-scoring fantasy football environment.
The game’s 48.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 15’s second-highest game total. FanDuel implies Los Angeles will score 27.5 points.
PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Nacua a good 82.0 receiving matchup advantage rating against Washington cornerbacks, Week 15’s 11th-best.
Nacua runs routes at a 41.7% wide-right pre-snap alignment plurality rate followed by a 33.6% slot rate and a 24.7% wide-left rate, giving him complete access to Washington’s injury-riddled, talentless secondary.
Among 73 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 195 perimeter-coverage snaps, Washington’s rotational perimeter cornerbacks Emmanuel Forbes (2.16 and 5.9%, respectively) and Benjamin St-Juste (2.18 and 6.2%, respectively) hold the bottom two spots in both yards allowed per coverage snap and explosive pass plays allowed rate. Backup safety Jartavius Martin auditioned as the starting slot defensive back in Weeks 12-13 (Week 14 bye), surrendering an 88.9% catch rate, 5.89 yards per coverage snap and a 14.8% explosive pass plays rate.
Los Angeles’ dynamic rookie wide receiver ranks No. 7 or better among qualifying NFL wide receivers in target rate (27.1%), yards per route run (2.49, YPRR) and explosive pass plays (28). His 5.3 yards after the catch per reception ranks No. 11.
Nacua’s target volume is reinforced by his continued first-read-target volume. His excellent splash zone usage signals an incoming swath of explosive gains. Nacua’s 13 first-read targets and 29.5% first-read target rate both rank top 16 among NFL wide receivers with at least 10 first-read targets in Weeks 13-14. The term “splash zone” denotes the area of the field found between the painted numbers at least 10 yards downfield. Targets thrown in this region yield more fantasy points than those thrown at an equivalent depth along the sidelines. Nacua (four) is the only Los Angeles pass catcher with more than one splash zone target over the last two weeks. Among 33 NFL wide receivers with at least 15 season-long splash zone targets, Nacua ties for No. 8 in explosive pass plays (10), ranks No. 4 in both targets (25) and yards per reception (26.0) and No. 2 in yards after the catch per reception (10.3).
Washington’s splash zone coverage unit ranks No. 26 in explosive pass plays allowed rate (42.1%) and No. 27 in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play (0.714).
Nacua is a week-winning FanDuel WR1.
TE Davis Allen, Los Angeles Rams vs. Washington Commanders – $4,800 on FanDuel
Los Angeles rookie tight end Davis Allen received a 72.6 PFF receiving grade en route to the TE7 finish in half-PPR scoring in Week 14. His breakout game occurred in conjunction with No. 1 tight end Tyler Higbee’s (neck stinger) inactive status and No. 2 tight end Hunter Long suffering a season-ending MCL tear. Allen’s 1.92 YPRR ranked No. 8 among 18 Week 14 NFL tight ends with at least targets, an efficiency mark that Higbee surpassed just once in 12 games played this year. Higbee failed to practice last week and his Week 15 status is yet unknown. Fantasy managers should employ Allen and his highly affordable $4,800 as the third, differentiating member of the aforementioned Los Angeles game stack, regardless of Higbee’s status.
Both Washington’s strong safety Darrick Forrest (58.4 PFF coverage grade) and the team’s highest-graded coverage linebacker Jamin Davis (56.5 PFF coverage grade) are on injured reserve, leaving linebacker Cody Barton to function as the primary mid-field defender. Among 11 Washington defenders with at least 10 tight end-coverage snaps, Barton’s 29.9 PFF tight end-coverage ranks dead last.
PFF’s TE matchup chart gives Allen a 10.0% receiving matchup advantage rating against Washington linebacker Khaleke Hudson, Week 15’s 10th-best.
Allen excitingly tallied three first-read targets and one splash zone target in his full-time debut last week. He caught three-of-four such passes, generating an explosive pass play on all three. As detailed above, Washington’s splash zone coverage is among the league’s worst.
Allen makes for a contrarian third member of this Los Angeles game stack.
TE Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens – $6,100 on FanDuel
As detailed in Week 15’s “QB Matchups, Streamer of the Week, Rankings and More“ and “WR/CB Matchups to Target and Avoid,” Jacksonville’s passing game faces its worst possible opponent with quarterback Trevor Lawrence playing through a Week 13 high-ankle sprain. Tight end Evan Engram is the lone player with an advantageous matchup and Lawrence was entirely dependent on him in a similar Week 14 scenario. Engram is a potentially chalky cash game and GPP tournament flex-position leverage player.
Lawrence produced a 90.8 PFF passing grade on first-read throws to the tight end position last week but earned just a 35.6 PFF passing grade on all non-tight end targets. Engram’s 11 first-read targets ranked No. 1 among Week 14 NFL tight ends by a four-target margin. He finished as the overall TE1.
Engram functions as Jacksonville’s de facto slot receiver with actual slot receiver Christian Kirk (Week 13 core muscle injury) now on injured reserve. Engram is among just three NFL players in Weeks 13-14 to earn at least 10 first-read targets when lined up in the slot, producing a quick-hitting 6.9-yard average depth of target (aDot) while averaging 2.66 YPRR.
Baltimore tasks safety/slot defensive back Kyle Hamilton (33 slot-coverage snaps) and slot cornerback Arthur Maulet (30 slot-coverage snaps) to co-man the slot, regardless of the opposing pass catcher’s position. Hamilton suffered an MCL sprain in Week 13 but Baltimore’s aggressive training staff allowed him to practice in a limited capacity on Wednesday. Hamilton’s No. 2-ranked 84.1 PFF coverage (among 36 NFL slot defensive backs with at least 150 slot coverage snaps) accurately reflects his elite talent, but playing through a partially torn knee ligament will undoubtedly slow him and Maulet’s coverage is far more inviting. Maulet’s 1.45 yards allowed per coverage snap rank No. 29 among qualifying slot defensive backs.
PFF’s TE matchup chart gives Engram a 5.0% receiving matchup advantage rating against Baltimore linebacker Roquan Smith, who is currently playing through a back injury.
Engram is a FanDuel flex-position leverage play against Baltimore in Week 15.
TE Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers – $6,600 on FanDuel
Arizona tight end Trey McBride has a nominally difficult, realistically winnable matchup against San Francisco linebacker Fred Warner in Week 15. Savvy fantasy managers should exploit McBride’s likely suppressed rostership rate, firing up McBride as a tight end or flex option in both cash games and GPP tournaments.
McBride’s high $6,600 salary is just $900 short of the positional maximum but fits comfortably as a contrarian stacking partner with quarterback Kyler Murray ($7,500), whose 68.5 PFF offense grade ranks No. 24 among 47 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 offensive snaps, and No. 1 wide receiver Marquise Brown ($6,400), whose 68.8 PFF receiving grade ranks No. 40 among 66 NFL wide receivers with at least 310 receiving snaps. Both players’ matchup breakdowns can be found in Week 15’s respective positional columns.
As detailed in the latter article, “[i]n Weeks 12-14, San Francisco’s injury-weakened coverage unit ranks No. 16 in [EPA] allowed per pass play (-0.069)… and No. 23 in explosive pass plays allowed rate (14.6%)” since losing 2022 first-team All-Pro safety Talanoa (torn ACL). Hufanga ranks top-six among 64 NFL safeties with at least 270 coverage snaps in both yards allowed per coverage snap (0.26) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (0.5%), doubling as the team’s primary tight end coverage defender.
Among San Francisco’s top-five most frequent tight end coverage defenders, only Warner is available for mid-field duties following a rash of recent injuries. The medical maladies negatively impact all three defensive levels and are exhaustively detailed in the quarterback matchups article.
49ers injury updates:
* LB Oren Burks (knee) A couple of weeks
* DT Arik Armstead (foot/ankle) Might miss one more game
* CB Charvarius Ward (groin) May have chance to play SUN
* DT Javon Hargrave (hamstring) May have chance to play SUN
* LB Dre Greenlaw (hip/ankle) Day to day— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) December 11, 2023
Among 65 NFL linebackers with at least 210 coverage snaps, Warner’s 83.7 PFF coverage grade ranks No. 8 yet his 84.8% catch rate ranks outside the top 55, and both his 0.95 yards allowed per coverage snap and 1.6% explosive pass plays allowed rate rank outside the top 25.
Since losing Hufanga, San Francisco’s splash zone coverage unit ranks No. 27 or worse in both EPA allowed per play (1.106) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (57.1%).
Among 33 NFL tight ends with at least 220 receiving snaps, McBride ranks No. 9 in yards after the catch per reception (5.3), ties for No. 5 in missed tackles forced (11) and No. 4 in explosive pass plays (15) and ranks No. 3 in YPRR (2.20) and No. 1 in target rate (26.4%). His 85.2 PFF receiving grade ranks No. 3.
McBride helpfully dominates via both first-read targets and splash zone targets. Among 30 NFL tight ends with at least 25 first-read targets, McBride ties for No. 8 with 54 targets and ranks No. 5 in YPRR with 2.35. McBride is one among 11 NFL tight ends to earn at least 10 splash zone targets, ranking or tying for No. 6 in both YPRR (11.10) and explosive pass plays (five).
McBride is an elite FanDuel TE1 in a nominally difficult, realistically winnable matchup.
WR Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills vs. Dallas Cowboys – $5,200
Buffalo slot receiver Khalil Shakir is a matchup-based FanDuel GPP tournament option with extreme cash game contrarian appeal. He forms a high-leverage sans-quarterback stack, paired with field-stretching perimeter wide receiver Gabe Davis, whose writeup can be found in “WR/CB Matchups to Target and Avoid.”
Shakir’s 75.8 PFF slot-receiving ranks quietly ranks No. 5 among 33 NFL slot receivers with at least 155 slot-receiving snaps. The slippery post-catch runner ran a route on 65.4% of quarterback Josh Allen’s dropbacks last week, despite tight end Dawson Knox’s return from injured reserve. Allen’s 88.0 PFF passing grade ranks No. 3 among 44 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks.
Shakir presents as an obvious slot-based target earner playing alongside Knox, whose 56.1 PFF receiving grade ranks third-worst among Buffalo pass catchers with at least 100 receiving snaps, and injured rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid (68.2 PFF receiving grade, thumb/shoulder injuries).
Among qualifying slot receivers, Shakir ranks top 12 in both missed tackles forced per reception (0.13) and explosive pass plays rate (30.4%), No. 4 in YPRR (2.04) and No. 1 in yards after the catch per reception (7.7).
Dallas slot cornerback Jourdan Lewis’ 36.7 PFF slot-coverage grade ranks dead last among 36 NFL slot defensive backs with at least 150 slot-coverage snaps. He ranks bottom four in both yards allowed per coverage snap (1.57) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (3.5%).
Shakir has earned five splash zone targets over his last seven games. Though admittedly limited usage, he delivered explosive pass plays on three-of-four splash zone receptions, signaling untapped potential.
Dallas’ splash zone coverage unit ranks No. 29 in EPA allowed per play (0.816) and No. 26 in yards allowed per coverage snap (12.98).
Shakir is a matchup-based FanDuel GPP tournament option.
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