• WR Dontayvion Wicks (69.7 PFF receiving grade), Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Wicks’ downfield dynamism will be needed against Kansas City.
• QB Jalen Hurts (83.0 PFF offense grade), Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco’s defense provides a quietly winnable matchup for Hurts.
• Dominate your fantasy league in 2023: For up-to-date fantasy draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool!
Estimated reading time: 9 minutes
Daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups require smart matchups analysis and rostership leverage opportunities to succeed. The analysis below details five fantasy assets capable of gaining significant leverage on the field.
WR Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs – $5,000 on FanDuel
Green Bay’s rookie wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks (69.7 PFF receiving grade) is a high-upside GPP tournament play against Kansas City. His $5,000 FanDuel salary is $5,000 short of the positional maximum, allowing for convenient roster building. He is cash-game viable as an extreme contrarian option. Wicks’ Limited Participant practice designation (knee) likely suppresses his FanDuel rostership rate.
Kansas City is a six-point FanDuel road favorite, signaling a pass-heavy game script for Green Bay.
PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Green Bay a 15.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 13’s seventh-best. Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love (72.7 PFF passing grade) has played very well over the last three weeks. Among 37 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks in Weeks 10-12, Love’s 7.8% big-time-throw rate ties for No. 4 and his 76.5% adjusted completion rate ranks No. 11.
Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur began incorporating Wicks as a deep threat in Week 7 before pushing his role into the splash zone in Week 8. The splash zone was first studied by then-Rotoworld analyst Hayden Winks in 2019 and named by Legendary Upside’s Pat Kerrane in Week 7, 2023. The term refers to the area of the field both between the painted numbers and at least 10-plus yards downfield. Targets thrown into the splash zone yield more fantasy points, on average, than those thrown along the sideline at an equivalent depth.
Wicks’ splash zone receiving data among 25 NFL wide receivers with at least seven splash zone targets in Weeks 8-12:
| NFL WR Splash Zone Receiving – Weeks 8-12 | Dontayvion Wicks |
| PFF Receiving Grade | 92.3 (No. 5) |
| YPRR | 19.86 (No. 2) |
| Catch % | 85.7% (T-No. 1) |
| Yards Per Reception | 23.2 (No. 6) |
| Yards After Catch Per Reception | 7.3 (No. 6) |
| Explosive Pass Plays | 5 (T-No. 5) |
| Explosive Pass Play % | 83.3% (T-No. 7) |
Kansas City’s pass defense ranks top 10 in both expected points added (EPA) per pass play allowed (0.127) and explosive pass play rate allowed to opposing wide receivers (17.5%), but its potent offense forces opponents to relentlessly target wide receivers downfield in an attempt to keep pace. Opposing passing games thusly target their wide receivers 11.4 yards downfield, the 10th deepest average depth of target (aDot) allowed among NFL teams.
Green Bay’s No. 3 wide receiver Jayden Reed (70.7 PFF receiving grade, chest injury) failed to practice on both Wednesday and Thursday, likely reducing Wicks’ Week 13 target competition.
The matchup is tailor-made for Wicks’ strengths. He is a high-upside, if volatile, GPP-tournament and cash-game option.
RB De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins @ Washington Commanders – $7,400 on FanDuel
Miami’s rookie running back De’Von Achane (93.6 PFF offense grade) is expected to return in Week 13 after aggravating his sprained MCL in Week 11. Like Wicks, Achane is a high-upside GPP tournament player who can also be used as a cash-game differentiator. Achane’s Limited Participant practice designation likely suppresses his Week 13 FanDuel rostership rate, however, Miami’s No. 1 running back Raheem Mostert (84.6 PFF offense grade) notably failed to practice due to ankle and knee injuries. Achane’s $7,400 FanDuel salary is $2,400 short of the positional maximum.
Doctor of Physical Therapy (DPT) Adam Hutchison’s Injury Report notes running backs returning from a one-week absence following an MCL sprain experience a 10.0% dip in fantasy-scoring production. This occurrence is ignorable for a player who boasts top-five finishes in three-of-five games played, per PFF’s Finishes tool.
The game’s 49.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 13’s highest game total. FanDuel implies Miami to score 29.5 points as 9.5-point road favorites.
Achane is featured as both a rusher and receiver in Miami’s explosive offense. Miami’s 48.0% offensive success rate ranks No. 3 among NFL teams and their 0.086 EPA per play ranks No. 4.
Washington traded away its Nos. 1 and 2 edge rushers prior to the NFL’s Week 9 trade deadline and lost both strong safety Darrick Forrest (61.1 PFF defense grade) and edge rusher Efe Obada (44.4 PFF defense grade) to injured reserve. Among NFL teams in Weeks 9-12, Washington’s run defense ranks No. 22 in EPA allowed per play (-0.033) and the defense ranks No. 29 overall (0.098).
Achane’s rushing data among 68 NFL running backs with at least 35 rushing attempts and Achane’s receiving data among 68 NFL running backs with at least 55 receiving snaps:
| NFL RB Rushing & Receiving | De’Von Achane |
| PFF Rushing Grade | 94.6 (No. 1) |
| Yards Per Rush Att. | 11.8 (No. 1) |
| Missed Tackles Forced Per Rush Att. | 0.38 (No. 2) |
| Yards After Contact Per Rush Att. | 7.3 (No. 1) |
| Explosive Run Play % | 28.2% (No. 1) |
| PFF Receiving Grade | 72.9 (T-No. 8) |
| Target % – YPRR | 18.6% (No. 21) – 1.20 (T-No. 16) |
| Catch % | 90.9% (T-No. 6) |
| Yards After Catch Per Reception | 10.2 (No. 10) |
| Missed Tackles Forced Per Reception | 0.4 (No. 12) |
Among 41 NFL running backs with at least seven green zone rushing attempts, Achane’s 42.9% first-down gained and/or touchdown-scored rate ranks No. 10.
Achane is a high-upside option in both FanDuel GPP tournaments and cash games.
QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers – $9,000 on FanDuel
Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts (83.0 PFF offense grade) brings week-winning potential to the Week 13 slate. Philadelphia’s dominant offense pairs particularly well with San Francisco’s injury-induced weaknesses and Hurts’ $9,000 FanDuel salary ranks No. 1 among Week 13 FanDuel quarterbacks. Skittish FanDuel users may fade Hurts, fearing San Francisco’s nominally strong defense and Hurts’ high salary and savvy users should exploit this in both cash games and GPP tournaments.
The game’s 47.5-point FanDuel over/under ties for Week 13’s second-highest.
San Francisco lost 2022 first-team All-Pro and Pro Bowl strong safety Talanoa Hufanga (70.5 PFF defense grade) and backup George Odum (64.5 PFF defense grade) to injured reserve over the last two weeks and interior defender Arik Armstead (81.7 PFF defense grade) failed to practice on Wednesday due to a Week 12 foot injury.
PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Philadelphia a 37.0% run-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 13’s second-highest, and San Francisco allows a 60.0% rushing touchdowns allowed rate inside its own five-yard line. The dynamic bodes well for Hurts, whose 11 rushing attempts inside the opponent’s five-yard line rank No. 1 among NFL quarterbacks. His 81.8% first-down gained and/or touchdown-scored rate inside the opponent’s five-yard line likewise ranks No. 1 among 10 NFL quarterbacks with at least three such rushing attempts.
San Francisco’s run defense ranks No. 16 in average depth of tackle (3.92) and No. 17 in both rushing success rate allowed (37.7%) and EPA allowed per run play (-0.083).
Hufanga’s absence in the passing game is significant. Among 66 NFL safeties with at least 230 coverage snaps, Hufanga ranks top 10 in both yards allowed per coverage snap (0.26) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (0.5%). San Francisco’s struggling starting cornerbacks all rank outside the top 36 in yards allowed per coverage snap among 94 NFL cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps.
PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Philadelphia’s No. 1 wide receiver A.J. Brown (90.9 PFF receiving grade) a good 72.3 receiving matchup advantage rating against San Francisco’s cornerbacks.
Philadelphia’s passing offense ranks No. 12 in success rate (46.9%) and No. 7 in EPA per play (0.099) among NFL passing offenses and Hurts boasts similarly impressive individual statistics. Among 40 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, Hurts’ 6.1% big-time-throw rate ties for No. 4, his 7.5 yards per passing attempt rank No. 7 and his 77.9% adjusted completion rate ranks No. 8.
Hurts is a week-winning FanDuel QB1.
RB D’Ernest Johnson, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $5,500 on FanDuel
Jacksonville’s No. 2 running back D’Ernest Johnson (65.6 PFF offense grade) is a speculative, high-volume FanDuel GPP tournament option with extreme contrarian cash-game potential against Cincinnati’s pushover run-defense unit.
No. 1 running back Travis Etienne (71.1 PFF offense grade) suffered fractured rib cartilage in Week 11 and failed to practice on Thursday. Per DPT Hutchison’s Injury Report, running backs average 2.1 games missed with nonspecific rib injuries and carry a 15.8% re-injury rate if active and FanDuel currently implies Jacksonville to score 23.5 points as 8.5-point home favorites. Both factors work heavily in Johnson’s favor.
Johnson earned a respectable role over the last two weeks and would likely take over as the dual-threat lead-back if Etienne were to either miss Week 13 or exit the game early.
Johnson’s Weeks 11-12 usage data among Jacksonville running backs:
| D’Ernest Johnson Usage | Weeks 11-12 |
| Rush Att. % | 24.1% |
| Routes Run % – Target % | 36.9% – 12.5% |
| 3rd+4th-&-Long Snap % | 31.6% |
| 2-Min. Drill Snap % | 28.6% |
| Green Zone Snap % – Green Zone Rush Att. % | 20.0% – 42.9% |
Johnson has demonstrated shocking efficiency as a pass catcher. Among 76 NFL running backs with at least 45 receiving snaps, Johnson ranks No. 1 in yards per route run (2.48, YPRR), yards per reception (17.0) and yards after the catch per reception (16.7).
Cincinnati’s run-defense unit ranks No. 24 in success rate allowed (40.1%), No. 27 in EPA allowed per run play (-0.029) and ties for dead last in average depth of tackle (4.92).
Johnson is a high-volume FanDuel GPP tournament option with extreme contrarian cash-game potential.
WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams vs. Cleveland Browns – $7,200 on FanDuel
Los Angeles wide receiver Puka Nacua (83.1 PFF receiving grade) is a Week 13 leverage play facing Cleveland’s banged-up defense. His $7,200 FanDuel salary is $2,800 short of the positional maximum, making for a dirt-cheap WR1.
Cleveland edge rusher Myles Garrett (94.1 PFF pass-rush grade) injured his left shoulder in a 2022 automotive collision and reportedly re-injured the same shoulder in Week 12, requiring assistance dressing himself post-game.
No. 1 cornerback Denzel Ward (66.1 PFF coverage grade) missed Week 12 with a shoulder injury and his Week 13 availability remains jeopardized. The occurrence forced slot cornerback Greg Newsome II (64.4 PFF coverage grade) into perimeter duties on the defensive-left, where he surrendered a 10.5% explosive pass plays allowed rate, the second-highest among 66 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 15 perimeter coverage snaps in Week 12.
Both Garrett and Ward failed to practice on Wednesday and Thursday.
Free safety Juan Thornhill (60.7 PFF coverage grade) is playing through a multi-week calf strain.
Fill-in slot cornerback Mike Ford (76.4 PFF coverage grade) is a career special teams player.
Since slot receiver Cooper Kupp (71.9 PFF receiving grade) returned to the lineup in Week 5, Nacua lines up wide-right at a 40.0% pre-snap alignment rate, followed closely by a 39.6% slot rate. Should Cleveland’s Week 12 cornerback deployment hold, Nacua will have ample advantageous opportunities. Should Cleveland defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz shift Newsome back into the slot to cover Kupp, Nacua only stands to benefit from Ford becoming his primary coverage defender.
Nacua’s 39 first-read targets in Weeks 5-12 trail Kupp by one and the two players tie with a team-high eight splash zone targets during that span.
Among 38 NFL wide receivers with at least 50 first-read targets, Nacua ranks No. 12 in YPRR (2.63) and ties for No. 5 in explosive pass plays (20). Among 24 NFL wide receivers with at least 15 splash zone targets, he ranks No. 7 in yards per reception (20.8) and ties for No. 10 in explosive pass plays (eight).
Nacua is a high-leverage FanDuel WR1 in Week 13.
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