NFL Week 11 Fantasy Football: Buy Low & Sell High Targets Based on High-Value Opportunities

High-end fantasy football performances and weekly finishes are fueled by routes run and high-value targets and touches. The majority of top scorers from last week saw healthy doses of end-zone targets, air yards, routes run, deep targets and goal-line carries.

CeeDee Lamb, Bryan Edwards, Dalvin Cook and Tyler Higbee were all overdue to score based on their previous opportunity volume inside the red zone. Each hit paydirt in Week 10. Lamb and Tyreek Hill also ranked back-to-back in air yards in Week 9. Both finished Week 10 as top-five fantasy WRs. 

Trust the process.

To find Week 11’s version of Lamb or Cook in the fantasy football rankings or as a waiver wire pickup, fantasy managers can leverage PFF’s fantasy stats tool to identify the players who saw the most high-value opportunities but failed to cash in.

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These guys are the perfect “buy-low” candidates and will soon exceed fantasy expectations for weekly fantasy matchups, large-field DFS contests or player props.

END-ZONE TARGETS

Most end-zone targets | Week 10

Rostering Tyler Lockett in fantasy football is a hell of a roller coaster ride — he's one of the most volatile receivers in the game. Week 10 represented the bad side of Lockett, who caught only two of eight targets for 23 yards. 

With trade deadlines approaching, frustrated fantasy managers are convinced they have to rid themselves of the Seattle Seahawks wide receiver. Let them, and buy him for pennies on the dollar: The underlying high-value targets — two end-zone targets, 229 air yards — paint the picture of a volcano on the cusp of eruption. 

#Buythedip on Lockett on DraftKings at his $6,000 suppressed salary. 

Tua Tagovailoa is also in line for a blow-up performance with the New York Jets up next. Gang Green has allowed the most fantasy points to QBs over the last four weeks, and Tagovailoa was a few end-zone throws away from finishing as a top-12 fantasy quarterback despite playing less than 50% of the snaps last Thursday. 

The Dolphins starting QB went 0-for-5 on his end-zone throws. He missed Mike Gesicki and Mack Hollins twice each. Don’t expect that to happen for a second straight week, as the Jets rank fifth-worst in PFF coverage grade versus end-zone throws. 

Tagovailoa was PFF’s 15th-highest-graded passer on throws to the end zone entering Week 10. 

Tre’Quan Smith is starting to heat up. The Saints wide receiver had his best game of the season in Week 10, converting his season-high 22% target share (nine targets) into four catches for 44 yards and a touchdown. 

Smith would have had an even bigger day had he brought down either of his two end-zone targets. Consider him at $4,400 on DraftKings this week with a plus-matchup versus Philly in Week 11. Smith operates from the slot more than any other Saints receiver and could thrive against a zone-heavy Eagles defense.

The Eagles have allowed the fourth-highest passer rating and third-highest touchdown rate on targets to the slot this season. 

Other wide receivers/tight ends who should experience positive touchdown regression based on their target volume inside the 5-yard line include Lockett, Waller, Tee Higgins, Diontae Johnson, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, A.J. Brown and Brandin Cooks.

DEEP TARGETS AND AIR YARDS