NFL Week 1 fantasy football start ’em, sit ’em

• Geno Smith should dominate the new Los Angeles Rams: Smith played well against the Rams last season, and now they don’t have several of their once-great players.

• Take advantage of wide receiver injuries: Injuries to Terry McLaurin and Jerry Jeudy should lead to Courtland Sutton and Jahan Dotson having big games.

• See where these players rank: Our weekly rankings landing page will show where all of these players rank relative to each other and everyone else to help you with all of your start-sit decisions.

Estimated Reading Time: 16 minutes

Deciding who to start or sit in fantasy football can be as easy as looking at the PFF rankings and going with the higher-ranked player. This start’em, sit’em column digs a step deeper, looking into why someone you might typically start might not have a good week, or why someone overlooked might have a good week. In many cases, it’s the usual starters who should star, but we want to explore the borderline players, too.

QUARTERBACKS

START

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

• Smith finished last season with 314.9 fantasy points, which ranked fifth among quarterbacks.
• The Seahawks are the only team with a perfect matchup for quarterbacks this week, according to PFF's strength of schedule tool. They face the Los Angeles Rams‘ defense.
• Smith faced the Rams' defense twice last season, gaining 580 passing yards and 54 rushing yards and throwing for four touchdowns.
• He was QB3 and QB13 in the respective weeks.
• The Rams' defense had six players last season with 500 or more snaps and a PFF defensive grade of 65.0 or better. Defensive tackle Aaron Donald is the only one still on the roster.
• Los Angeles is going from Jalen Ramsey (86.4) and Troy Hill (65.4) at outside cornerback to Ahkello Witherspoon (45.4) and Derion Kendrick (43.7).
• The Seahawks are clear favorites in this game. The only concern is if they build a big lead, after which they could run too much in the second half.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

• Cousins finished last season with the eighth-most fantasy points but was inconsistent as a weekly fantasy starter.
• He had five games as a top-six fantasy quarterback but also six games outside of the top 16.
• Minnesota plays the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week — a good enough matchup for Cousins, who should have one of his better games.
• Cousins has played much better against zone defenses than man defenses in his career, including last season. He achieved an 80.3 passing grade against zone compared to a 64.2 mark against man.
• His completion percentage is over 20 percentage points higher against zone compared to man.
• The Buccaneers played zone at the seventh-highest rate last season.
• Cousins should also benefit from the Buccaneers' lack of pass rush.
• The Vikings' offensive line has the eighth-best matchup against the Buccaneers' defensive line in terms of pass protection and pass rushing, according to PFF's offensive line matchup chart.
• Tampa Bay recorded the fourth-lowest team pass-rush grade in 2022.
• The Buccaneers added some rookies, but they might not make an immediate difference.
• This all adds up to a relatively safe situation for Cousins in Week 1.