Fantasy Football: Most overvalued players in Rounds 11-20 on Underdog Fantasy

• Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson: Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson could miss more than half of the 2024 fantasy football season recovering from his late-December 2023 ACL tear.

• Washington Commanders wide receiver Jahan Dotson: Washington Commanders wide receiver Jahan Dotson’s first two NFL seasons signal a third-season flop. 

• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF's fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!

Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes

Best ball scoring formats have made fantasy football a year-round endeavor and enthusiastic Underdog Fantasy drafters are already pushing fan favorites into precarious average draft position (ADP) territory. The article below breaks down three overvalued NFL players whose current ADPs should be avoided on Underdog Fantasy’s half-points per reception (half-PPR) platform.

11.06, TE14 T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson is liable to miss more than half of the 2024 fantasy football season following his December 23rd, 2023 Grade 3 ACL tear. Hockenson underwent ACL reconstruction (ACLR) on January 29th, 2024, making a Week 1 return-to-play (RTP) date effectively impossible. He remains overvalued at his 11.06, TE14 ADP.

Hockenson’s 82.4 PFF receiving grade ranks third among 31 NFL tight ends with at least 45 targets. His 24.4% target rate ranks second and his 1.89 yards per route run (YPRR) ranks fifth. 

Tight end performance data for year one post-ACLR is difficult to come by. Year one post-ACLR data for running backs and wide receivers is widely available though, thanks to Doctor of Physical Therapy (DPT) Edwin Porras, and is at least somewhat applicable to the tight end position. Both positions experience significant production declines immediately following ACLR but positive outliers can occur when a player is 26 years old or younger, possesses elite athleticism and was drafted in Round 3 or earlier. Returning 10 months post-op and avoiding the physically unable to perform list (PUP) are pluses in this regard. 

Unfortunately for Hockenson, he turns 27 in July and will certainly land on PUP. He will be just 7 months and 11 days post-op come Week 1, per DPT Jeff Mueller. Should Hockenson return nine months post-op, his first on-field appearance would occur in Week 9 (November 3). This outcome appears highly unlikely:

In addition to clinical research showing returning prior to 9 months is suboptimal after ACL surgery, here’s the small sample of NFL athletes who tore an ACL between roughly 12/15 and 1/15 of an NFL season and the outcome.

You just don’t see returns as early as Godwin’s pic.twitter.com/5aoLIQxkJH

— Edwin Porras, DPT (@FBInjuryDoc) July 26, 2022

Should Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell play it safe by waiting until the 10-month mark, Hockeson would not return until Minnesota’s Week 13 game on November 1. The former RTP date costs him 47.1% of the 17-week fantasy football season while the latter costs him 70.6%. 

On the plus side, Hockenson was drafted with the eighth overall pick in 2019 and boasts an elite 9.18 relative athletic score (RAS). 

It is reasonable to expect Hockenson to produce as a back-end TE1 late in the season but a complete return to week-winning form is unlikely–both in 2024 and beyond. Underdog Fantasy drafters are currently overvaluing Hockenson. He should not be drafted while impact starters remain available in the 11th round. 

12.07, WR63 Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders 

Washington Commanders wide receiver Jahan Dotson enters a make-or-break third season with a 12.07, WR63 ADP after delivering WR50 and WR56 results, respectively, in his first two seasons. While a Grade 2 hamstring strain at least partially excuses his rookie season flop, his encore performance was injury-free. With significant target competition and a new coaching staff at the helm, Underdog Fantasy drafters should Dotson despite the slight discount.

Dotson produced a worrying 1.39 YPRR in his rookie season before plummeting to a panic-worthy 0.82 average the following year. With a new coaching staff in town, no longer concerned about returning value on Dotson’s 2022 first-round draft capital, Dotson must prove himself worthy of being Terry McLaurin’s sidekick in two-receiver sets. Third-round rookie wide receiver Luke McCaffrey should be considered the dark horse for the role and is already a must-draft late-round draft pick. 

McCaffrey’s ability to win in traffic (60.7% contested catch rate) and produce after the catch (6.0 yards after the catch per reception) as a centerfield dominator is far superior to Dotson’s. Among 64 NFL wide receivers with at least 65 targets, Dotson’s 33.3% contested catch rate ties for 48th and his 2.4 yards after the catch per reception rank 63rd. His 58.5 PFF receiving grade ranks 61st and McLaurin’s 74.6 PFF receiving grade ranks 36th.

Dotson must also contend with second-round rookie tight end Ben Sinnott, plus running backs Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr. Sinnott’s 22.0% target rate ranks seventh and 81.0 PFF receiving grade and 2.02 YPRR both rank fourth among 27 NFL tight ends with at least 45 targets. 

Among 33 NFL running backs with at least 40 targets, Ekeler’s 19.8% target rate and 1.25 YPRR rank 14th and 12th, respectively, while Robinson’s 71.4 PFF receiving grade and 1.64 YPRR rank eighth and fourth.

Dotson is unlikely to beat his prior season-long fantasy finishes playing in such a talented pass-catching corps. He is currently overvalued at this 12.07, WR63 ADP.

13.06, WR68 Xavier Legette, Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers selected 6-foot-1, 221-pound X-wide receiver Xavier Legette with the 2024 NFL draft’s final first-round pick following his fifth-year college breakout at South Carolina. Legette bears all the hallmarks of an impending NFL bust who only found college success as a fully developed, hyperathletic 22-year-old man, dominating younger, smaller defenders. Underdog Fantasy drafters are selecting him with a 13.06, WR68 ADP despite a litany of superior dart-throw wide receivers lining up behind him. 

Spotting early-career college breakouts is an easy means of identifying a promising NFL wide receiver profile. Legette’s first four years at South Carolina were an abject disaster.

Legette’s college receiving data:

Drafters are sacrificing enticing positional value at Legette’s current ADP. NFL wide receivers who possess a higher upside, available later than Legette’s ADP include Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. (64.6 PFF receiving grade), Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Darnell Mooney (58.9 PFF receiving grade), Carolina Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen (75.3 PFF receiving grade), New England Patriots wide receivers DeMario Douglas (75.6 PFF receiving grade), Ja’Lynn Polk (76.0 PFF receiving grade) and Javon Baker (84.3 PFF receiving grade), New York Giants wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson (67.0 PFF receiving grade), Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Jermaine Burton (82.0 PFF receiving grade), Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Demarcus Robinson (69.2 PFF receiving grade) and Washington Commanders stud rookie wide receiver Luke McCaffrey (82.7 PFF receiving grade).

Thielen, Legette’s 2024 teammate, is coming off his fifth 100-plus-target season and the fourth-best target rate (21.3%) of his ten-year career. The front office also traded for sixth-year wide receiver Diontae Johnson, whose respective seasonal target rate finishes from 2019-to-2023, among NFL wide receivers with at least 85 seasonal targets, rank as follows; 25th, second (tied), fourth, 18th and 22nd. Johnson’s 79.1 PFF receiving grade ranks 22nd among 46 NFL wide receivers with at least 85 targets in 2023. Both Thielen and Johnson should lead Legette in 2024 team target shares. 

It is entirely possible Legette made the rare fifth-year talent turnaround in 2023, signaling a successful NFL career to come. It is far more likely though that Underdog Fantasy drafters are severely overvaluing a prospect who briefly succeeded in his physically mature fifth college season.