Fantasy football mock drafts: A full redraft with all the rookies in place

“April is the cruelest month, breeding lilacs out of the dead land, mixing memory and desire, stirring dull roots with spring rain. Winter kept us warm, covering Earth in forgetful snow, feeding a little life with dried tubers.” – T.S. Eliot

I was told by a high school teacher that when Eliot wrote these lines in The Waste Land he was speaking of his own battles with depression. I like to re-imagine these lines in terms of my own symptoms of withdrawal following the end of fantasy season. Despite the harsh weather winter provides, it’s too often negated by the joys and excitement fantasy football provides us. February is not the cruelest month because the season is finally over. April instead earns that distinction because we know how close we are and, yet, how slow those final days seem to drag on. But, alas, here we are in May. The NFL draft is over and fantasy season begins again.

Our next several months will be spent tea-leaf-reading coach-speak and agonizing over the various draft strategies we may or may not employ. Earlier this week we concluded a staff mock draft. This will ultimately look far different than our drafts in July, but today, it is a mock draft at its most pure — not yet corrupted by fantasy group-think or something a head coach had said that was inevitably blown-out of proportion and taken far out of context.

As much as I love inventing new stats or agonizing over rookie landing spots, there’s nothing I’d rather do at present than review our most recent mock draft. If you’re a true degenerate such as myself, real-life drafts are currently taking place at MyFantasyLeague here.

Round 1

Pick	Ovr	Franchise	Selection
1.01	1	Mike Castiglione	Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB
1.02	2	Dan Schneier	Johnson, David ARI RB
1.03	3	Jeff Ratcliffe	Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB
1.04	4	Michael Moore	Brown, Antonio PIT WR
1.05	5	Joey Cartolano	Jones, Julio ATL WR
1.06	6	Brandon Marianne Lee	Beckham, Odell NYG WR
1.07	7	Pat Thorman	Green, A.J. CIN WR
1.08	8	Scott Barrett	Gordon, Melvin LAC RB
1.09	9	Daniel Kelley	Evans, Mike TBB WR
1.10	10	Tyler Loechner	McCoy, LeSean BUF RB
1.11	11	Walton Spurlin	Thomas, Michael NOS WR
1.12	12	Jon Moore	Ajayi, Jay MIA RB

Round 1 went pretty much as expected. The three “uber-backs” were selected in the first three picks, followed by four consecutive wide receivers. After A.J. Green fell at No. 7, my first tier of players was gone and I was left picking between Melvin Gordon and Mike Evans from the start of my second tier of players. Given the lack of depth behind Gordon, I feel strongly about his potential as a bell-cow running back on, what’s looking like, one of the most potent offenses in football.

Round 2

2.01	13	Jon Moore	Howard, Jordan CHI RB
2.02	14	Walton Spurlin	Bryant, Dez DAL WR
2.03	15	Tyler Loechner	Freeman, Devonta ATL RB
2.04	16	Daniel Kelley	Gurley, Todd LAR RB
2.05	17	Scott Barrett	Nelson, Jordy GBP WR
2.06	18	Pat Thorman	Murray, DeMarco TEN RB
2.07	19	Brandon Marianne Lee	Fournette, Leonard JAC RB (R)
2.08	20	Joey Cartolano	Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR
2.09	21	Michael Moore	Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE
2.10	22	Jeff Ratcliffe	Hilton, T.Y. IND WR
2.11	23	Dan Schneier	Robinson, Allen JAC WR
2.12	24	Mike Castiglione	Cooper, Amari OAK WR

There were relatively few surprises in Round 2, outside of Brandon Marianne Lee selecting rookie running back Leonard Fournette. I’m not as in love with the landing spot as she appears to be, but I do understand the appeal. The Jaguars are likely shifting to a more run-first approach in 2017, and Fournette projects to dominate goal-line carries as early as Week 1, and in standard leagues his deficiencies as a receiver are far less detrimental. Coming off of their pedestrian 2016 seasons, I also would have preferred a better discount on DeAndre Hopkins (2.08) and Allen Robinson (2.11).

Round 3

3.01	25	Mike Castiglione	McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB (R)
3.02	26	Dan Schneier	Cooks, Brandin NEP WR
3.03	27	Jeff Ratcliffe	Jeffery, Alshon PHI WR
3.04	28	Michael Moore	Mixon, Joe CIN RB (R)
3.05	29	Joey Cartolano	Davis, Corey TEN WR (R)
3.06	30	Brandon Marianne Lee	Baldwin, Doug SEA WR
3.07	31	Pat Thorman	Miller, Lamar HOU RB
3.08	32	Scott Barrett	Watkins, Sammy BUF WR
3.09	33	Daniel Kelley	Allen, Keenan LAC WR
3.10	34	Tyler Loechner	Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB
3.11	35	Walton Spurlin	Hyde, Carlos SFO RB
3.12	36	Jon Moore	Cook, Dalvin MIN RB (R)

In the last round, we saw a rookie running back get drafted too high for my liking. In the third round, rookie fever hit pandemic-status as three more rookie running backs went off the board. Christian McCaffrey going 3.01 seemed like a reach, especially given the standard format, for a running back projected to do most of his damage in the passing game, while likely splitting carries with Jonathan Stewart. Soon after (3.04), we saw rookie Joe Mixon get selected by Michael Moore. Several picks later, at 3.12, Dalvin Cook went off the board. I think both running backs are fairly safe bets to lead their team in running back touches by the end of the year, but still feel hesitant taking them over more well-established veterans still on the board.

Rounds 4-6

4.01	37	Jon Moore	Moncrief, Donte IND WR
4.02	38	Walton Spurlin	Wilson, Russell SEA QB
4.03	39	Tyler Loechner	Adams, Davante GBP WR
4.04	40	Daniel Kelley	Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR
4.05	41	Scott Barrett	Sanders, Emmanuel DEN WR
4.06	42	Pat Thorman	Pryor, Terrelle WAS WR
4.07	43	Brandon Marianne Lee	Kelce, Travis KCC TE
4.08	44	Joey Cartolano	Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB
4.09	45	Michael Moore	Luck, Andrew IND QB
4.10	46	Jeff Ratcliffe	Reed, Jordan WAS TE
4.11	47	Dan Schneier	Diggs, Stefon MIN WR
4.12	48	Mike Castiglione	Crabtree, Michael OAK WR
5.01	49	Mike Castiglione	Bryant, Martavis PIT WR
5.02	50	Dan Schneier	Coleman, Tevin ATL RB
5.03	51	Jeff Ratcliffe	Lacy, Eddie SEA RB
5.04	52	Michael Moore	Montgomery, Ty GBP RB
5.05	53	Joey Cartolano	Ware, Spencer KCC RB
5.06	54	Brandon Marianne Lee	Coleman, Corey CLE WR
5.07	55	Pat Thorman	Olsen, Greg CAR TE
5.08	56	Scott Barrett	Anderson, C.J. DEN RB
5.09	57	Daniel Kelley	Abdullah, Ameer DET RB
5.10	58	Tyler Loechner	Landry, Jarvis MIA WR
5.11	59	Walton Spurlin	Henry, Derrick TEN RB
5.12	60	Jon Moore	Dixon, Kenneth BAL RB
6.01	61	Jon Moore	Matthews, Jordan PHI WR
6.02	62	Walton Spurlin	Peterson, Adrian NOS RB
6.03	63	Tyler Loechner	Benjamin, Kelvin CAR WR
6.04	64	Daniel Kelley	Eifert, Tyler CIN TE
6.05	65	Scott Barrett	Brady, Tom NEP QB
6.06	66	Pat Thorman	Lynch, Marshawn OAK RB
6.07	67	Brandon Marianne Lee	Brees, Drew NOS QB
6.08	68	Joey Cartolano	Hill, Tyreek KCC WR
6.09	69	Michael Moore	Tate, Golden DET WR
6.10	70	Jeff Ratcliffe	Edelman, Julian NEP WR
6.11	71	Dan Schneier	Marshall, Brandon NYG WR
6.12	72	Mike Castiglione	Henry, Hunter LAC TE

I wasn’t in love with Jon Moore’s selection of the inconsistent and inefficient Donte Moncrief at 4.01, especially after his general manager’s most-recent comments. Over the last three seasons, among all 54 wide receivers with at least 200 targets, Moncrief ranks bottom-six in both yards per route run and yards per target. I also felt like Derrick Henry was a bit of a reach for a running back who, in all likelihood, will be playing backup to or be stuck in a committee with Demarco Murray this season.

However, perhaps the worst pick of this range belongs to me, selecting C.J. Anderson at 5.08 — just hours before the Denver Broncos signed Jamaal Charles. At this point, with running back talent drying up, I realized I needed to shift my strategy to more of a “zero-RB”-approach (or rather, one-RB with Gordon on my team.) I felt slightly better about my team after drafting Tom Brady in the next round at 6.05. After trading for Brandin Cooks, this might be Brady’s best offense on paper since the Randy Moss Golden Era. He finished third in fantasy points per game last season without Cooks and without Rob Gronkowski for 50 percent of his games. The next pick, by Pat Thorman, again brought me to a state of T.S. Eliot-like melancholy. I must have been using a set of outdated rankings, not realizing Marshawn Lynch was still on the board – a steal at 6.06.

Rounds 7-10

7.01	73	Mike Castiglione	Hunt, Kareem KCC RB (R)
7.02	74	Dan Schneier	Charles, Jamaal DEN RB
7.03	75	Jeff Ratcliffe	Cobb, Randall GBP WR
7.04	76	Michael Moore	Perkins, Paul NYG RB
7.05	77	Joey Cartolano	Graham, Jimmy SEA TE
7.06	78	Brandon Marianne Lee	Woodhead, Danny BAL RB
7.07	79	Pat Thorman	Jackson, DeSean TBB WR
7.08	80	Scott Barrett	Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR
7.09	81	Daniel Kelley	Gillislee, Mike NEP RB
7.10	82	Tyler Loechner	Crowder, Jamison WAS WR
7.11	83	Walton Spurlin	Williams, Tyrell LAC WR
7.12	84	Jon Moore	Ingram, Mark NOS RB
8.01	85	Jon Moore	Williams, Mike LAC WR (R)
8.02	86	Walton Spurlin	Meredith, Cameron CHI WR
8.03	87	Tyler Loechner	Prosise, C.J. SEA RB
8.04	88	Daniel Kelley	Ertz, Zach PHI TE
8.05	89	Scott Barrett	Walker, Delanie TEN TE
8.06	90	Pat Thorman	Snead, Willie NOS WR
8.07	91	Brandon Marianne Lee	Matthews, Rishard TEN WR
8.08	92	Joey Cartolano	Perine, Samaje WAS RB (R)
8.09	93	Michael Moore	Brown, John ARI WR
8.10	94	Jeff Ratcliffe	Doctson, Josh WAS WR
8.11	95	Dan Schneier	Mitchell, Malcolm NEP WR
8.12	96	Mike Castiglione	Parker, DeVante MIA WR
9.01	97	Mike Castiglione	Newton, Cam CAR QB
9.02	98	Dan Schneier	Martin, Doug TBB RB
9.03	99	Jeff Ratcliffe	Perriman, Breshad BAL WR
9.04	100	Michael Moore	Maclin, Jeremy KCC WR
9.05	101	Joey Cartolano	Winston, Jameis TBB QB
9.06	102	Brandon Marianne Lee	Thielen, Adam MIN WR
9.07	103	Pat Thorman	Decker, Eric NYJ WR
9.08	104	Scott Barrett	Gore, Frank IND RB
9.09	105	Daniel Kelley	Britt, Kenny CLE WR
9.10	106	Tyler Loechner	Powell, Bilal NYJ RB
9.11	107	Walton Spurlin	Bennett, Martellus GBP TE
9.12	108	Jon Moore	Shepard, Sterling NYG WR
10.01	109	Jon Moore	Ebron, Eric DET TE
10.02	110	Walton Spurlin	Forte, Matt NYJ RB
10.03	111	Tyler Loechner	Murray, Latavius MIN RB
10.04	112	Daniel Kelley	Kelley, Rob WAS RB
10.05	113	Scott Barrett	Garcon, Pierre SFO WR
10.06	114	Pat Thorman	Wallace, Mike BAL WR
10.07	115	Brandon Marianne Lee	Riddick, Theo DET RB
10.08	116	Joey Cartolano	Howard, O.J. TBB TE (R)
10.09	117	Michael Moore	Lockett, Tyler SEA WR
10.10	118	Jeff Ratcliffe	White, Kevin CHI WR
10.11	119	Dan Schneier	Ryan, Matt ATL QB
10.12	120	Mike Castiglione	Mariota, Marcus TEN QB

At the 6.12 and 7.01 turn, Mike Castiglione selected Chiefs’ rookie running back Kareem Hunt and Chargers’ sophomore tight end Hunter Henry. Chiefs’ incumbent starting running back, Spencer Ware, went off the board at 5.05. Of the two backs, I prefer Hunt, even if we excluded his discount. Few landing spots provide more fantasy value than locking up the starting running back job in an Andy Reid offense, and while I’m not sure Hunt is an immediate contributor, I think he’ll be the more valuable back to own by the time the fantasy playoffs rolls around. With the selection of Henry, Mike wrote, “What Scott said about the Year 2 tight end jump.” Here, Mike is referring to an article I wrote earlier in the season where I explain, “Henry just posted the 13th-best fantasy season by a rookie tight end ever. On average, tight end fantasy production increases by 86 percent from Year 1 to Year 2.” Again, Thorman got a steal, this time in DeSean Jackson at 7.07, forcing me into Larry Fitzgerald at 7.08.

Rounds 11-14

11.01	121	Mike Castiglione	Smallwood, Wendell PHI RB
11.02	122	Dan Schneier	Williams, Jamaal GBP RB (R)
11.03	123	Jeff Ratcliffe	Bernard, Giovani CIN RB
11.04	124	Michael Moore	Njoku, David CLE TE (R)
11.05	125	Joey Cartolano	Jones, Marvin DET WR
11.06	126	Brandon Marianne Lee	Johnson, Duke CLE RB
11.07	127	Pat Thorman	Cousins, Kirk WAS QB
11.08	128	Scott Barrett	Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE
11.09	129	Daniel Kelley	Lee, Marqise JAC WR
11.10	130	Tyler Loechner	Engram, Evan NYG TE (R)
11.11	131	Walton Spurlin	Gordon, Josh CLE WR
11.12	132	Jon Moore	Prescott, Dak DAL QB
12.01	133	Jon Moore	Hooper, Austin ATL TE
12.02	134	Walton Spurlin	Nelson, J.J. ARI WR
12.03	135	Tyler Loechner	Sanu, Mohamed ATL WR
12.04	136	Daniel Kelley	Rivers, Philip LAC QB
12.05	137	Scott Barrett	Gallman, Wayne NYG RB (R)
12.06	138	Pat Thorman	Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB
12.07	139	Brandon Marianne Lee	Brate, Cameron TBB TE
12.08	140	Joey Cartolano	Sproles, Darren PHI RB
12.09	141	Michael Moore	Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB
12.10	142	Jeff Ratcliffe	Kamara, Alvin NOS RB (R)
12.11	143	Dan Schneier	Blount, LeGarrette NEP RB
12.12	144	Mike Castiglione	Ross, John CIN WR (R)
13.01	145	Mike Castiglione	Mack, Marlon IND RB (R)
13.02	146	Dan Schneier	Broncos, Denver DEN Def
13.03	147	Jeff Ratcliffe	Manning, Eli NYG QB
13.04	148	Michael Moore	Ginn Jr., Ted NOS WR
13.05	149	Joey Cartolano	Foreman, D'Onta HOU RB (R)
13.06	150	Brandon Marianne Lee	Richardson, Paul SEA WR
13.07	151	Pat Thorman	Woods, Robert LAR WR
13.08	152	Scott Barrett	Burkhead, Rex NEP RB
13.09	153	Daniel Kelley	Samuel, Curtis CAR WR (R)
13.10	154	Tyler Loechner	Fuller, Will HOU WR
13.11	155	Walton Spurlin	Palmer, Carson ARI QB
13.12	156	Jon Moore	Enunwa, Quincy NYJ WR
14.01	157	Jon Moore	Dalton, Andy CIN QB
14.02	158	Walton Spurlin	Witten, Jason DAL TE
14.03	159	Tyler Loechner	Carr, Derek OAK QB
14.04	160	Daniel Kelley	Taylor, Tyrod BUF QB
14.05	161	Scott Barrett	Mathews, Ryan PHI RB
14.06	162	Pat Thorman	Williams, Jonathan BUF RB
14.07	163	Brandon Marianne Lee	Richard, Jalen OAK RB
14.08	164	Joey Cartolano	Williams, Joe SFO RB (R)
14.09	165	Michael Moore	Wright, Kendall CHI WR
14.10	166	Jeff Ratcliffe	Stafford, Matthew DET QB
14.11	167	Dan Schneier	Thomas, Julius MIA TE
14.12	168	Mike Castiglione	Hill, Jeremy CIN RB

I really liked the selections of Dak Prescott at 11.12, Phillip Rivers at 12.04, Ben Roethlisberger at 12.09, and Derek Carr at 14.03. This appears to be the sweet spot for “late-round QB” teams. Not feeling incredibly comfortable with my running back stable of Frank Gore and C.J. Anderson fighting over RB2 status after Melvin Gordon, I began making dart throws at high-upside low-ceiling running backs for my “one-RB” team. After hating on all of the rookie running back picks in Rounds 2 and 3, I love the upside in Joe Williams at 14.08. I also liked Walton Spurlin’s pick of Jason Witten at 14.02. Already we’d had three rookie tight ends get taken off the board, but I’d prefer old reliable to all of them.

Rounds 15-16

15.01	169	Mike Castiglione	Chiefs, Kansas City KCC Def
15.02	170	Dan Schneier	Bryant, Matt ATL PK
15.03	171	Jeff Ratcliffe	Gostkowski, Stephen NEP PK
15.04	172	Michael Moore	Patriots, New England NEP Def
15.05	173	Joey Cartolano	Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def
15.06	174	Brandon Marianne Lee	Texans, Houston HOU Def
15.07	175	Pat Thorman	Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC Def
15.08	176	Scott Barrett	Rawls, Thomas SEA RB
15.09	177	Daniel Kelley	Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def
15.10	178	Tyler Loechner	Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def
15.11	179	Walton Spurlin	Eagles, Philadelphia PHI Def
15.12	180	Jon Moore	Chargers, Los Angeles LAC Def
16.01	181	Jon Moore	Tucker, Justin BAL PK
16.02	182	Walton Spurlin	Bailey, Dan DAL PK
16.03	183	Tyler Loechner	Vinatieri, Adam IND PK
16.04	184	Daniel Kelley	Crosby, Mason GBP PK
16.05	185	Scott Barrett	Doyle, Jack IND TE
16.06	186	Pat Thorman	Janikowski, Sebastian OAK PK
16.07	187	Brandon Marianne Lee	McManus, Brandon DEN PK
16.08	188	Joey Cartolano	Aguayo, Roberto TBB PK
16.09	189	Michael Moore	Boswell, Chris PIT PK
16.10	190	Jeff Ratcliffe	Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def
16.11	191	Dan Schneier	Reynolds, Josh LAR WR (R)
16.12	192	Mike Castiglione	Bullock, Randy CIN PK

Though I did like Spurlin’s pick of Witten in the last round, I think my selection of Jack Doyle 16.05 was one of the big steals of the draft. Though dependable, Witten certainly lacks Doyle’s upside. I tried treating this as if it were truly a real-life draft. This is why I did not select a back-up quarterback, a kicker, or defense. If I were in an actual draft in May (with waivers), I’d rather not have those positions occupying roster spots for the next four months. Instead I’ll likely continue to add and drop the various buzzed-about fliers, hoping someone sticks or I can trade one away for an upgrade somewhere else. Several days before Week 1, I’ll drop the two players I feel least comfortable about for the top kicker in my rankings and the defense with the most attractive Week 1 schedule. I’ll continue to stream these two positions throughout the rest of the season, or until I’ve found an every-week starter.