Fantasy football mock drafts: 0.5 PPR after some big player news

We’re now just weeks away from the start of the NFL season and fantasy drafts are in full swing. Below is a 12-team, 16-man roster mock draft from the PFF staff. This latest mock was the first after several developments, including the Ezekiel Elliott suspension and the Sammy Watkins and Jordan Matthews trades. The scoring is also slightly different than most, with 0.5 PPR scoring but with usual roster allocations. Without further ado, the PFF mock draft, along with my thoughts on strategy and approach:

Round 1-2

There were no real surprises in Round 1. You can’t go wrong with either David Johnson or Le’Veon Bell at the top of the draft. You also can’t go wrong with any of the elite receiving options that followed in Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones, or Antonio Brown, especially in a 0.5 PPR league. But the second round certainly got interesting, as the eventual landing spot for running back Ezekiel Elliott. Considered a top-three pick before his suspension, it’s uncertain how much he’ll actually play in 2017. It’s certainly a risk to make him your RB1 but Pat Thorman deemed the reward too high to pass. You can also see T.Y. Hilton starting to slip slightly in the wake of the injury bug taking over the Colts. Andrew Luck’s status for the beginning of the season is questionable and the offensive line isn’t doing backup Scott Tolzien any favors. The second also saw our first rookie off the board in Leonard Fournette, which was also a surprise since it’s a 0.5 PPR league and rookie backs like Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook were still available.

Round 3-4

Round 3 saw two more rookie running backs in Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon, both the third running backs taken for Scott Barrett and Jeff Ratcliffe, respectively. By not relying on them to be one of their top running backs, their season won’t be torpedoed if they don’t work out. However, both backs are capable of quickly turning into RB1s by the end of the season, giving both Jeff and Scott excellent options. Round 3 also saw the second non-RB/WR taken in Travis Kelce. Early in draft season, it wasn’t surprising to see Jordan Reed taken ahead of Kelce but Reed was taken a whole round later this time around thanks to lingering injury concerns.

Another player whose stock dropped was the recently-traded Sammy Watkins. Regularly taken in the third round before his move to Los Angeles, the PFF staff isn’t as high on him now that Jared Goff is his quarterback.

Round 5-6

Round 5 might seem far removed from the first round, but there is still a lot of value to be had. For example, Jeff Ratcliffe took three running backs with his first three picks but took Allen Robinson in the fourth and, my favorite pick of the fifth, Michael Crabtree. Not many realize that Crabtree actually finished as a top-15 fantasy receiver in both standard scoring and PPR. The same goes for Emmanuel Sanders, a top-20 receiver no matter what type of scoring. Yet he’s being drafted in the fifth. Rounds 5 and 6 is also where you start to see teams fill in the rest of their fantasy roster. Two quarterbacks and two tight ends were taken over both rounds.

Round 7-8

In Rounds 7 and 8, we start to see non-starters who could turn into something. Derrick Henry, who racked up nearly 500 rushing yards on just 110 carries as a rookie, is in perhaps the best running situation east of the Mississippi should DeMarco Murray go down. That group also includes players like DeVante Parker, who, despite starting only eight games last year, finished second on the team in targets. Parker’s always teased fantasy owners with his skill set but has yet to put it together for a full season.

These two rounds also saw a lot of tight ends taken, five to be exact. After Gronk, Kelce or even Greg Olsen, there’s a logjam of capable, productive tight ends that are not much different than the others whether it’s Tyler Eifert, Zach Ertz, or Delanie Walker. All are TE1s but none are worth taking until the rest of your starting lineup is set.

My favorite pick of these two rounds was Frank Gore. Every year we think this is the last year Gore will be productive yet he keeps producing, finishing as a top-12 running back in standard scoring leagues last year. And yet, Dan Clasgens got him in the seventh.

Rounds 9-10

Much like the previous two rounds were tight end-heavy, rounds 9 and 10 are quarterback-heavy, as it should be. Unless you can get an elite option at the position (i.e. Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, or Drew Brees), it’s just not worth it. Any one of Dak Prescott, Marcus Mariota, or Jameis Winston will be a viable option. Another one of those quarterbacks has seen quite the fall in recent weeks. Andrew Luck, taken in the fifth round in a previous PFF mock draft, falls to the ninth in this one. If it weren’t for a lingering shoulder injury, Luck would be right behind the likes of Brees or Brady, but now he’s squarely in the mid- to low end of QB1 territory.

Another mover is Jordan Matthews. Taken in the 11th round of the mock draft mentioned above, Matthews moved to Buffalo where he won’t be competing with Alshon Jeffery for targets. He has translated to a positive shift in his draft position.

Rounds 9 and 10 showed the value of having pass-catching backs in a 0.5 PPR league with C.J. Prosise, Giovani Bernard, and James White all taken. None are between the tackle running backs or do a lot of their damage in the passing game. In a standard league, none should be considered quite this high.

Round 11-13

This part of the draft is definite lottery ticket territory, especially at the running back position. Darren McFadden is slated to take over for Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas and is entering an ideal situation behind a top-five run-blocking offensive line and an ascending quarterback. It’s not unreasonable to expect McFadden to be a top-10 scoring running back during the weeks he starts. Rookie running backs Marlon Mack, Alvin Kamara, D’Onta Foreman, and Jamaal Williams will have the reverse path of McFadden, unlikely to see significant playing time early in the season but they could be a factor towards the end.

Rookies were not just represented at the running back position. From Zay Jones to Kenny Golladay to John Ross, there are several rookie receivers that could carve out a big role on their teams early on. It’s also interesting to note that Evan Engram was the first rookie tight end taken over O.J. Howard or David Njoku. Engram was a distant third when it came to rookie tight ends entering the NFL draft but he entered a pass-happy offense that drafted him specifically to be a pass-catching tight end.

Rounds 14-16

And last but not least, we get to kickers and defenses. In this case, the first defense went to Mike Castiglione at 14.02. I may be in the minority but I’m all for taking the top kickers and/or defense a tad earlier than conventional wisdom says, which is normally the last two rounds. By doing that, it allows you to take some super lottery ticket position players. For example, Mike was able to take James Conner, the presumed backup to stud Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell in the 15th round. As we saw with DeAngelo Williams in the past, the Steelers running back position can be very lucrative, no matter which player is there.

Of course, you could also go the route some of our writers did and just wait until after the draft to pick up your kickers and defenses. Unless you’re getting an elite defense or kicker, say the Seahawks defense or Stephen Gostkowski, it’s not crazy to keep drafting position players until the very end. This way, you can maximize the number of lottery tickets while letting the pre-season sort out who will and will not be contributing early in the season. Whether it’s a surprise cut or, God forbid, an injury, crazy things happen in the days before the season starts and it doesn’t hurt to cover as many bases as possible. Then, you can make a more informed decision on who to cut and go get your kicker and defense to start the season.