(This week, PFF Fantasy’s writers will be highlight the common pitfalls drafters run into, the most common errors fantasy players make on draft day. Monday, it was standard leagues. Tuesday it was auction leagues. Today it’s IDP. Welcome to Draft Mistakes Week.)
With NFL training camps opening up across the country, fantasy football draft days are right around the corner. Rankings as well as projections are coming out and the wise IDP fantasy owners are already compiling their initial draft lists.
As draft day approaches, it’s important for owners to not only be flexible in their approach to the ebbs and flow of the draft but to avoid making mistakes that could sabotage the season. This is especially true when navigating an IDP draft, as there are quite a few potholes to watch out for. Let’s take a look a closer look at some of the more common snafus that could trip up IDP owners as the draft unfolds.
Draft preparation mistakes
Owners need to make sure they understand the roster limits as well as the scoring format of their particular leagues. It may seem like I’m overstating the obvious here, but year after year there will be those owners that come into the draft seemingly flying blind. Nothing leads to fantasy failure more than failing to realize a league’s scoring system.
In IDP formats there are basically three scoring formats. There are “balanced,” “tackle-heavy,” and “big-play” scoring formats. In “big-play” formats, sacks, interceptions or forced fumbles are usually given five points (or more) while tackles count for one. In a “tackle-heavy,” league, it’s a 3-1 ratio from big plays to tackles, while in a “balanced” format, it’s roughly a 4-1 ratio.
A firm grasp of the scoring will tell owners which positions benefit from the format, with edge-rushing outside linebackers and defensive ends being gold in “big play” leagues. Their sack potential helps to provide an edge over interior linemen or inside linebackers. Defensive backs that are considered “ballhawks” (aka, those that produce interceptions) also carry more value in “big-play” formats.
In “tackle-heavy” as well as “balanced” scoring, it’s the middle as well as the weakside linebackers that carry above-average value. On the whole, defenses are designed to funnel running plays inside where these linebackers are set up to rack up big tackle totals. Understanding the leagues scoring will help owners finalize their draft rankings as they head into fantasy draft day.
Player designation
Another mistake is simply not keeping up with news of any changes to player’s designations on the league site or to the position they’ll be playing on their NFL team. Both of these occurrences can factor heavily into the fantasy value of a player.
A great example of how a designation change can affect the fantasy value of a player is Oakland Raiders stud defender Khalil Mack. Last year Mack was far and away the top defensive lineman in fantasy football (granted, J.J. Watt missed most of the season). A defensive scheme tweak for the Raiders will now see Mack designated as an outside linebacker in 2017. While Mack will likely still be able to put up top-10 numbers at LB, he is no longer a top-10 overall IDP draft selection.
Owners often overlook players being moved different positions on their NFL team and the positive or negative effect that can have on their fantasy production. Two such examples heading into this season could be occurring in Miami and Jacksonville.
Early reports have rookie Raekwon McMillon manning the middle for the Dolphins with Kiko Alonso lining up on the weakside. That means newly acquired Lawrence Timmons could end up as the strongside linebacker. Timmons’ fantasy value takes a big hit if these positions remain the same throughout the preseason and into Week 1. Strongside linebackers face more blockers and generally score less than middle or weakside backers.
The same situation is occurring in Jacksonville, with Myles Jack taking over the middle and Telvin Smith manning the weakside. This move kicks veteran Paul Posluszny to the strongside and submarines his fantasy value. The savvy IDP owner will keep abreast of these types of moves when putting together draft rankings.
Drafting mistakes
Now we can deal with some common mistakes that occur during the actual draft. In mixed leagues that utilize both offensive and defensive players do not reach for IDP options, it’s a good rule of thumb to fill out all the offensive skill position players before dipping into IDP options. Generally, these leagues start more offensive players than IDP so shoring up quality players on that side of the ball first is a wise move.
There was a time when selecting J.J. Watt in the early rounds was a possibility but his recent back issues have brought him back to the IDP pack. Until we see Watt able to play a whole season again at the level he displayed when dominating the league, do not reach for him.
Let’s examine some pitfalls to avoid in IDP-only leagues that derail seasons before they begin. In these formats, there are generally more players starting at each designation and knowing when and where to select them is vital.
Do not wait on defensive linemen, as the position lacks the depth of the linebackers and the well runs dry very quickly. A quick look at last season reveals that in most “balanced” scoring systems that 30-35 linebackers outscored the top defensive linemen (that’s with Mack’s totals now being listed at linebacker for 2016).
Getting a top-10 defensive lineman in the first three rounds of the draft can give a team at least one significant weekly producer at the position. There will be plenty of linebacker options to stock up on throughout the draft. Waiting on the DL position will leave owners with marginal hit-or-miss options and that is a big mistake.
It’s smart to wait on the defensive back position until being set at linebacker and the defensive line. Defensive backs are generally the hardest to predict on a weekly basis and often streaming the position is the way to go. Due to the pass-happy nature of today’s NFL and the increase in sub packages defensive back help can often be found on the waiver wire depending on matchups.
The only defensive backs to consider drafting in the first five rounds are tackle-producing safeties such as Landon Collins and Reshad Jones.
In-season mistakes
Generally, in-season mistakes are failing to pull the cord on players that are simply not producing and failing to look at the weekly matchup for our IDP options. Just because a player has been productive in the past does not mean he needs to simply be plugged in on a weekly basis if he’s underperforming consistently.
A perfect example is Lavonte David of the Buccaneers and his underwhelming 2016 season. After years of producing top-10 numbers, David saw a dramatic drop in tackle totals last year and failed to reach double-digit stops in a single game. There comes a time when the writing is on the wall, yet owners continued to roll him out hoping he’d turn things around. Don’t be afraid to insert a player drafted lower than a struggling player just because of name value. “Hope” is not a strategy.
Along those same lines is knowing the matchup your IDP players have on a weekly basis. As the season unfolds the numbers will begin to become clear as to which teams allow the most points to which IDP position. If the top linebackers on your team are facing an offense that doesn’t run the ball well (teams such as Green Bay or Detroit in 2016) then do not be afraid to insert a reserve player with a better matchup. It’s tough to bench a top draft choice but it can be the best route to victory and knowing the matchups are key.
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