In May, I released my top-50 PPR rankings and caught quite a bit of heat for including Bilal Powell’s name on that list. Since then, Powell has jumped about a round in ADP, despite Jets’ offensive coordinator John Morton announcing his plans for a committee approach in 2017. Today, I wanted to revisit my original thoughts on Powell’s fantasy value, in light of recent news.
My argument was two-fold.
- I like Powell’s chances of supplanting Matt Forte as the Jets’ lead back.
- Even if Powell is not the team’s lead back, he will serve in the more attractive role for fantasy.
To support my first argument, I wanted to highlight several efficiency stats.
In terms of yards per carry, Powell ranked second-best among all running backs with at least 100 carries in 2016. Forte ranked well below league average.
In terms of yards after contact per attempt, Powell ranked fourth-best, while Forte ranked well below league average.
In terms of missed tackles forced per attempt, Powell ranked 10th-best, while Forte ranked below league average.
Powell joined Le'Veon Bell, Jay Ajayi, and Mark Ingram as the only running backs to rank top-10 in each rushing metric. Needless to say, Powell vastly outperformed Forte last season as a runner. As a receiver, New York’s preference was clear, targeting Powell 69 times to Forte’s 37. I had hoped this disparity in efficiency might mean Forte would take a backseat to Powell, who would serve in a “bell cow” capacity in 2017, but obviously, Morton’s recent comments put a damper on this.
Over the final four weeks of last season, Powell already proved what his potential would be if Forte were to suffer an injury. With Forte amassing just eight touches over this stretch, Powell was outscored by only Aaron Rodgers and Le’Veon Bell, among all positions in PPR leagues.
At age 31, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Forte vastly improves in efficiency or production. All-time, there have only been 25 rushers to accumulate 1,000 rushing yards in their age 30 season. Among all running backs at age 31, that number shrinks to just 12.
Powell could very well end up being the 1A to Forte’s 1B in the committee, but it’s unlikely he reaches the heights he saw at the tail-end of last season without an injury to Forte. However, even if the split is more in line with last season’s numbers, Powell is again at an advantage over Forte.
Last season, Powell played on 88.7 percent of the Jets‘ snaps when it was third down with more than five yards to go for a first down or touchdown. This was the highest rate in the league among all running backs. Despite Forte being one of the most prolific pass-catching backs of our era, the Jets clearly preferred to use Powell in obvious passing downs. This is especially important given the current state of the Jets roster. Vegas projects the Jets to win only 4.5 games this season, tied for the lowest total in the league. Or, in other words, the Jets are projected to trail far more often than they lead this season. We’ve already discussed in previous articles how negative gamescript benefits a team’s passing down back, because teams throw more often when trailing.
The other issue here, tied to our last point, that negatively impacts both running backs, is limited scoring opportunities. On top of this, the Jets offensive line earned our eighth-worst snap-adjusted run blocking grade last season.
As much as I want to like Powell, at current ADP (RB26), he is too expensive just to target based on a potential injury to Forte. Forte’s limited upside and advanced age negate his advantage of being the superior ADP value (RB40). I might take chances on either player in best ball leagues or in favorable matchups based on projected gamescript in DFS, but in season-long this projects as a frustrating tandem to own.
I’ve since updated my rankings. Consider this my public apology.
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