Fantasy Football: Later-round QB superflex draft strategy

• Can fading the most important position in superflex pay off?: What a build looks like from different draft ranges when targeting the top skill position players early.

• Not the popular strategy, but banking on the strong production floor at QB could still pay off: There will be a lot of skill position value to target, and some ideal later round QBs with upside, for those able to pull this off.

• Dominate your fantasy draft: Subscribe to PFF+ to get full access to PFF’s full suite of fantasy football tools, including the fantasy mock draft simulator, live draft assistant, fantasy rankings, cheat sheets and more! Click here to subscribe!

Estimated Reading Time: 13 minutes

I recently covered an RB-heavy draft strategy as well as a WR-heavy draft strategy, looking at the upside potential of for each build. However, what about for superflex leagues? Waiting on quarterback can work in standard fantasy leagues but is there a way to capitalize on offensive upside by fading the most important position early in drafts? While it isn’t going to be a popular strategy given how tilted standard superflex scoring leagues are toward the smaller pool of quarterbacks, it doesn’t mean it’s impossible to pull off, which is what we’ll dive into today.

While having a set strategy heading into a draft can help a player feel prepared, it’s important to be ready to pivot from the original game plan if things don’t go as planned, or if there’s significant value that falls to you.

Know your scoring

Before diving into the pick-by-pick strategy, it’s going to be very important to familiarize yourself with the overall league and scoring settings, especially when it comes to superflex settings.

• As highlighted in the tables below, full PPR scoring allows a much more balanced scoring of the skill position players compared to quarterbacks, although, quarterbacks still hold an advantage at the top.
• As scoring moves away from full PPR, quarterbacks will dominate the leaderboards in scoring even more. As more advantages are given to the skill positions, expect to see a more even distribution among the league’s top scorers.
• As league size increases, the quarterback position also becomes more valuable as there are only 32 starters at most on any given week, so it becomes all the more important to load up on the position early.

PPR Scoring top finishers by position since 2014

0.5 PPR Scoring top finishers by position since 2014

Non-PPR Scoring top finishers by position since 2014

As highlighted in the charts above, the quarterback position offers by far the most scoring upside when it comes to potential overall fantasy finish. It’s why locking up two starting quarterbacks early in superflex drafts is so valuable, but for those who are willing to get risky with their roster construction and believe in some of the fantasy potential of later-round quarterbacks, this is likely the strategy for you.

Part of the appeal for waiting on quarterback in one-QB formats is because of the strong production floor offered by even the later options at the position. For example, just looking at last season, the average points per game from quarterbacks who finished 13-24 in scoring on the year was 16.2, while we’re looking at 13.6  at running back and 14.0 at wide receiver, respectively. While we can find strong producers beyond the top-12, it’s important to be aware of your draft board as the position will still dry up quicker, so we don’t want to wait too long before drafting the position.

Targeting high-end skill position players, especially those with overall top-five upside, and still finding a way to get consistently strong production from your quarterback slots, has the potential for a significant advantage…if you can pull it off. While it won’t necessarily many people’s preferred draft strategy for superflex, it doesn’t mean that it can’t work and isn’t worth exploring for those willing to zig while the rest of the league zags.

For those willing to take that swing, targeting players who are in the best position to deliver top-five upside is going to be the key, of course. Below are two charts looking at what the average top-five wide receivers and top-five running backs from recent years have had in common.

Key metrics from past fantasy wide receivers who finished inside the top five since 2019:

Key metrics from past fantasy running backs who finished inside the top-five since 2019:

Before getting into the breakdowns of the potential builds, you’ll also notice that none of the early picks where we could be drafting a quarterback will be used on a tight end, despite four to five of them going in the first four rounds. Look no further than the historic scoring charts above to see that tight ends to not offer anywhere close to the level of fantasy production to make up for passing on QB. Even for a shallower position, there are enough similar fantasy tight ends to target once we have our quarterback(s) locked up.

Picks 1-4 ideal build

• R1 – RB Christian McCaffrey
• R2 – WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
• R3 – RB Kyren Williams/Travis Etienne
• R4 – WR Jaylen Waddle
• R5 – QB Jayden Daniels/Trevor Lawrence
• R6 – TE George Kittle
• R7 – QB Aaron Rodgers
• R8 – WR Rashee Rice
• R9 – QB Will Levis

Whether you’re looking to start your draft with McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb or Tyreek Hill, you’ll more than likely have your pick of the litter because this is a prime spot to draft one of the top quarterbacks. Passing on Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and/or Jalen Hurts carries risk since they’re excellent bets for top-five finishes at the position, but there could be at least one quarterback with similar upside to target later to help fill that role.

Jayden Daniels has the darkhorse QB1 potential (or at the very least top-five) that we’ll be looking for if passing on the Tier 1 quarterbacks from an early draft position. Daniels’ ADP on Sleeper (QB15) isn’t as high as it likely should be, which could also cause him to go earlier depending on your fellow drafters, but he’s the type of player we can reach to acquire in order to lock up that upside.

Loading up on skill position players early from this draft spot doesn’t mean we have to abide by the ADP when selecting our first, or even second quarterback, if you feel strongly enough about their potential and don’t want to be left with the less-exciting options. For those targeting Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams, or whoever it happens to be, then make sure you can land them because others in your league will likely be looking at the same quarterback(s).

Picks 5-8 ideal build

• R1 – WR CeeDee Lamb/Tyreek Hill
• R2 – RB Jahmyr Gibbs
• R3 – WR Drake London/Chris Olave
• R4 – RB Josh Jacobs/De’Von Achane
• R5 – WR DJ Moore/Deebo Samuel
• R6 – QB Matthew Stafford/Kirk Cousins
• R7 – QB Baker Mayfield
• R8 – TE David Njoku
• R9 – QB Geno Smith

This middle-round pick build is a look at fading the quarterback position the longest possible, at least according to ADP, before our options run so dry that we’re really banking on surprise performances at the position. Stafford and Mayfield were top-15 fantasy quarterbacks last season, while Cousins was top-five in points per game prior to his injury. There’s not likely top-five upside from this group in 2024, but they’re all good examples of that production floors we referenced earlier, where they won’t sink your week as we rely on more of that upside from the earlier draft picks.

In each of these first five rounds there is a legitmate case for every player to finish within the top 10 at their position, if not higher, and when sacrificing that potential at quarterback, it’s something we should absolutely be aiming for in the early rounds. Taking big swings on players like Gibbs and Achane at running back offers top-five potential. Meanwhile, the wide receiver position being led by the first players drafted from that position on top of the potential addition of either players who have finished top-five at their position in the past or hold that potential this season is the way to approach the early portion of drafts for those determined to wait on quarterback.

Picks 9-12 ideal build

• R1 – WR Justin Jefferson/Ja’Marr Chase
• R2 – RB Breece Hall/Bijan Robinson
• R3 – RB Derrick Henry
• R4 – QB Caleb Williams/Tua Tagovailoa
• R5 – WR Malik Nabers/DK Metcalf
• R6 – TE Kyle Pitts
• R7 – WR Terry McLaurin/Jayden Reed
• R8 – QB Deshaun Watson
• R9 – RB Javonte Williams

This build highlights the earliest spot to come back to the quarterback position after fading through the first three rounds. Williams and/or Tagovailoa offer top-12 fantasy potential for their position after Tagovailoa finished as QB8 last season and considering Williams’ talent and weapons around him for Year 1. 

This is likely the safest way to play a QB fade in superflex drafts where we’re at the third-fourth round turn and will have a better sense of which players will/won’t be available to us when it’s time for that fourth round pick. Henry or your quarterback target in the third round doesn’t make much of a difference here as you’re getting similar results, especially if Henry becomes available in the fourth. If you feel more comfortable taking the quarterback first here in the third round, you should still get a comparable skill position player when the draft comes back around shortly for the fourth.

Going slightly earlier for our first quarterback could even open things up to continue targeting the other positions for more upside before coming back to get QB2. This is still a great spot to draft non-QBs, having not quite filled our starting lineup at these positions yet, and having players like Malik Nabers, DK Metcalf, and Kyle Pitts all still on the board. Compared to quarterbacks, Stafford, Cousins, Mayfield in similar rounds here, the optimal path likely figures to wait just a bit longer for that second QB spot since we should be feeling relatively good about our QB1 pick.