(“Today’s Crazy Fantasy Stat” is an occasional offseason offering from PFF that highlights something that catches our eye and aids in our preparation for the 2017 fantasy season.)
Odell Beckham Jr. and Antonio Brown are tied for the most receiving touchdowns over the last three years, at 35 apiece. They’re well clear of the next group, a three-way tie with 27 each, shared by Mike Evans, Dez Bryant, and Jordy Nelson.
If you’re like me, one of the names there really stood out. Because Jordy Nelson is tied for the third-most receiving touchdowns over the last three years … despite missing 2015 altogether. He has 27 touchdowns in 32 games over the last three years. Just to note a few things about that:
- The total for the next-most touchdowns by any player who missed at least a full season in that time belongs to Calvin Johnson, who in 29 games in 2014-15 had 17 touchdowns, a full 10 behind Nelson.
- Nelson’s touchdowns-to-games rate is 0.84 over the three years, best in the league over second-place Beckham. Michael Thomas, who just had a monster rookie season and as such has only one year to tabulate, managed only 9 touchdowns in 15 games, a rate of 0.60.
- The last three years, Baldwin has the No. 2 WR rating (passer rating when targeted) in the last three years, at 125.31, just behind Doug Baldwin’s 125.82. Over three years, and 292 targets, passes Nelson’s way have been intercepted twice.
- He’s finished second or better in standard fantasy scoring three times in the last six years (2011, 2014, and 2016. No other receiver has finished top-two in fantasy scoring more than twice in the PFF era (since 2006), let alone in a six-year window. Antonio Brown (2014 and 2015) and Larry Fitzgerald (2005 and 2008) are the only other active receivers who have finished top-two more than once.
Obviously, Nelson has had the benefit over his entire career of being on the Packers and having Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball — Andre Johnson might have been able to do something like what Nelson had done if he hadn’t had, you know, Texans quarterbacks throwing him the ball. Still, Nelson has outperformed Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, Jeff Janis (cough)…
Working against Nelson at this point, obviously, is his age — he turned 32 in May. But a year ago, he was a 31-year-old coming off a season missed to an ACL tear, and he responded by leading the league in touchdown receptions and finishing top-six in targets, receptions, and yards. Yes, yes, the cliché that Father Time is undefeated is of course true, but some contenders hold off the opponent a bit longer than others.
Most people would agree that there’s a clear top tier of fantasy receivers that includes, in some order, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., and Julio Jones, plus perhaps A.J. Green and Mike Evans. The next tier — again, order is debatable, includes Green and Evans (if they weren’t in the first), plus Nelson, T.Y. Hilton, Michael Thomas, maybe Amari Cooper. Per Fantasy Football Calculator, Nelson is currently the sixth receiver off the board, basically the top of the second tier, while on My Fantasy League, he’s going ninth, the bottom of that tier. And considering the relative sure thing Nelson has been in his career when healthy, it seems like the MFL drafters are underrating him. He should be leading off the second tier, no lower than sixth among receivers, and you could argue for him above Evans.
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