Fantasy Football: Hunting Week 9's best DFS stacks

Stack the Packers: The combination of the Green Bay Packers‘ Aaron Rodgers and Allen Lazard is projected to be the top stack this week with relatively affordable combined salaries.

High-upside RB-DST stack for Week 7: The Las Vegas Raiders have a high chance of being the highest-scoring RB-DST stack at a lower cost.

Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

This DFS main-slate stacks analysis is a variation of the methodology used in analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates. It uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each team’s QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE, QB-RB-WR stacks will be the highest scoring of the slate. These are some of the most popular stack combinations employed in DFS strategy.

The numbers below harness the unexpected connections and reactions between players that have happened over the past several years and thereby point to under/overvalued stacks that won’t be identified through traditional projections and logical deduction.

QUARTERBACK/WIDE RECEIVER STACK

QB/WR players

Team	Opponent	Highest %	Player	Pos	DK Fpts	DK Salary	FD Fpts	FD Salary
GB	DET	10.9	Aaron Rodgers	QB	23.6	5,900	22.2	7,000
GB	DET	10.9	Allen Lazard	WR	13.6	6,000	11.1	6,500
BUF	NYJ	9.2	Josh Allen	QB	26.3	8,500	24.7	9,300
BUF	NYJ	9.2	Stefon Diggs	WR	17.8	8,400	14.0	8,900
ATL	LAC	8.1	Marcus Mariota	QB	21.0	5,300	19.6	7,100
ATL	LAC	8.1	Drake London	WR	15.9	4,900	12.5	5,600
LAC	ATL	7.7	Justin Herbert	QB	22.6	7,200	21.2	7,800
LAC	ATL	7.7	Josh Palmer	WR	12.5	5,100	9.9	6,200
CIN	CAR	6.4	Joe Burrow	QB	22.8	6,600	21.3	8,500
CIN	CAR	6.4	Tee Higgins	WR	19.7	7,300	15.7	8,000
JAX	LV	6.2	Trevor Lawrence	QB	17.9	5,200	16.6	6,800
JAX	LV	6.2	Christian Kirk	WR	13.7	5,500	10.9	6,300
ARZ	SEA	6.1	Kyler Murray	QB	22.8	7,400	21.5	8,200
ARZ	SEA	6.1	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	19.5	7,900	15.2	8,600
LA	TB	5.6	Matthew Stafford	QB	18.2	5,600	16.9	6,700
LA	TB	5.6	Cooper Kupp	WR	21.1	8,900	16.3	9,000
LV	JAX	4.9	Derek Carr	QB	19.0	5,400	17.6	6,800
LV	JAX	4.9	Davante Adams	WR	17.9	8,100	14.0	8,100
DET	GB	4.5	Jared Goff	QB	15.1	5,500	14.2	7,100
DET	GB	4.5	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	14.7	6,600	11.2	7,100
MIN	WAS	4.4	Kirk Cousins	QB	17.9	6,200	16.7	7,900
MIN	WAS	4.4	Justin Jefferson	WR	18.8	8,600	14.8	9,000
TB	LA	4.0	Tom Brady	QB	22.0	6,000	20.2	6,900
TB	LA	4.0	Mike Evans	WR	19.2	7,200	15.2	7,700
SEA	ARZ	3.7	Geno Smith	QB	19.9	5,800	18.5	7,500
SEA	ARZ	3.7	D.K. Metcalf	WR	15.7	6,400	12.6	7,400
CHI	MIA	3.4	Justin Fields	QB	17.6	5,300	16.4	7,400
CHI	MIA	3.4	Darnell Mooney	WR	11.2	4,700	8.9	6,100
CAR	CIN	3.4	P.J. Walker	QB	15.4	5,200	14.3	6,500
CAR	CIN	3.4	D.J. Moore	WR	18.1	5,800	14.0	7,000
MIA	CHI	3.0	Tua Tagovailoa	QB	21.8	6,700	20.3	8,000
MIA	CHI	3.0	Tyreek Hill	WR	23.2	8,500	18.1	8,700
NE	IND	2.9	Mac Jones	QB	17.1	5,100	16.1	6,400
NE	IND	2.9	Jakobi Meyers	WR	13.2	5,400	10.3	6,800
IND	NE	2.4	Sam Ehlinger	QB	15.9	5,000	15.0	6,300
IND	NE	2.4	Michael Pittman Jr.	WR	12.6	6,800	9.8	6,400
NYJ	BUF	2.4	Zach Wilson	QB	14.8	5,100	14.0	6,600
NYJ	BUF	2.4	Garrett Wilson	WR	12.9	4,800	10.2	5,800
WAS	MIN	2.4	Taylor Heinicke	QB	16.9	5,400	15.9	7,200
WAS	MIN	2.4	Terry McLaurin	WR	13.5	5,900	10.6	7,200

RUNNING BACK/DST

RB/DST players

Team	Opponent	Highest %	Player	Pos	DK Fpts	DK Salary	FD Fpts	FD Salary
LAC	ATL	11.1	Austin Ekeler	RB	18.5	8,800	15.6	9,400
LAC	ATL	11.1	Chargers DST	DST	6.5	3,400	6.5	3,900
LV	JAX	8.6	Josh Jacobs	RB	16.4	7,300	14.4	8,800
LV	JAX	8.6	Raiders DST	DST	6.7	3,200	6.7	3,500
GB	DET	8.1	Aaron Jones	RB	16.0	7,400	14.0	7,800
GB	DET	8.1	Packers DST	DST	7.1	3,700	7.1	4,100
SEA	ARZ	6.4	Kenneth Walker III	RB	16.4	6,200	14.4	8,300
SEA	ARZ	6.4	Seahawks DST	DST	6.2	2,500	6.2	4,100
TB	LA	5.9	Leonard Fournette	RB	12.7	6,600	11.1	7,100
TB	LA	5.9	Buccaneers DST	DST	6.8	3,000	6.8	4,700
DET	GB	5.9	D'Andre Swift	RB	14.3	6,400	12.1	7,500
DET	GB	5.9	Lions DST	DST	3.5	2,600	3.5	3,200
ARZ	SEA	5.9	James Conner	RB	11.1	5,800	9.8	6,600
ARZ	SEA	5.9	Cardinals DST	DST	7.3	2,900	7.3	4,000
ATL	LAC	5.8	Tyler Allgeier	RB	9.9	5,400	8.9	6,400
ATL	LAC	5.8	Falcons DST	DST	5.4	2,800	5.4	3,100
NE	IND	5.7	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	14.0	6,200	12.4	8,000
NE	IND	5.7	Patriots DST	DST	7.7	4,100	7.7	4,900
MIA	CHI	5.6	Raheem Mostert	RB	14.4	6,100	12.6	6,500
MIA	CHI	5.6	Dolphins DST	DST	9.6	3,800	9.6	3,600
BUF	NYJ	5.5	Devin Singletary	RB	9.5	5,700	8.5	6,000
BUF	NYJ	5.5	Bills DST	DST	8.8	4,300	8.8	5,000
CIN	CAR	5.1	Joe Mixon	RB	17.6	6,500	15.2	8,100
CIN	CAR	5.1	Bengals DST	DST	10.6	4,000	10.6	4,400
MIN	WAS	5.1	Dalvin Cook	RB	18.4	7,800	15.8	8,500
MIN	WAS	5.1	Vikings DST	DST	7.6	3,500	7.6	4,500
IND	NE	3.8	Jonathan Taylor	RB	16.7	7,700	14.5	6,800
IND	NE	3.8	Colts DST	DST	6.7	2,700	6.7	4,200
NYJ	BUF	3.5	James Robinson	RB	8.0	5,400	7.1	6,000
NYJ	BUF	3.5	Jets DST	DST	5.2	2,000	5.2	3,400
JAX	LV	3.1	Travis Etienne	RB	15.3	6,300	13.3	7,600
JAX	LV	3.1	Jaguars DST	DST	5.7	3,100	5.7	3,800
CAR	CIN	2.8	D'Onta Foreman	RB	10.4	6,000	9.3	7,300
CAR	CIN	2.8	Panthers DST	DST	5.4	2,300	5.4	3,300
WAS	MIN	2.3	Antonio Gibson	RB	10.7	5,500	9.3	6,100
WAS	MIN	2.3	Commanders DST	DST	5.8	2,400	5.8	3,700
CHI	MIA	0.8	David Montgomery	RB	10.1	6,000	9.0	7,000
LA	TB	0.8	Darrell Henderson	RB	12.0	5,100	10.7	5,700
CHI	MIA	0.8	Bears DST	DST	5.6	2,500	5.6	3,000
LA	TB	0.8	Rams DST	DST	4.3	3,300	4.3	4,300

QUARTERBACK/WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END

QB/WR/TE players

Team	Opponent	Highest %	Player	Pos	DK Fpts	DK Salary	FD Fpts	FD Salary
GB	DET	11.0	Aaron Rodgers	QB	23.6	5,900	22.2	7,000
GB	DET	11.0	Allen Lazard	WR	13.6	6,000	11.1	6,500
GB	DET	11.0	Robert Tonyan	TE	11.3	3,800	9.0	5,000
ARZ	SEA	9.2	Kyler Murray	QB	22.8	7,400	21.5	8,200
ARZ	SEA	9.2	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	19.5	7,900	15.2	8,600
ARZ	SEA	9.2	Zach Ertz	TE	10.6	5,100	8.3	6,600
LAC	ATL	9.2	Justin Herbert	QB	22.6	7,200	21.2	7,800
LAC	ATL	9.2	Josh Palmer	WR	12.5	5,100	9.9	6,200
LAC	ATL	9.2	Gerald Everett	TE	12.4	4,800	9.8	5,800
BUF	NYJ	9.1	Josh Allen	QB	26.3	8,500	24.7	9,300
BUF	NYJ	9.1	Stefon Diggs	WR	17.8	8,400	14.0	8,900
BUF	NYJ	9.1	Dawson Knox	TE	10.2	3,500	8.2	5,100
LV	JAX	8.9	Derek Carr	QB	19.0	5,400	17.6	6,800
LV	JAX	8.9	Davante Adams	WR	17.9	8,100	14.0	8,100
LV	JAX	8.9	Darren Waller	TE	10.0	4,900	7.9	6,000
CIN	CAR	7.9	Joe Burrow	QB	22.8	6,600	21.3	8,500
CIN	CAR	7.9	Tee Higgins	WR	19.7	7,300	15.7	8,000
CIN	CAR	7.9	Hayden Hurst	TE	9.6	3,600	7.6	5,300
ATL	LAC	7.1	Marcus Mariota	QB	21.0	5,300	19.6	7,100
ATL	LAC	7.1	Drake London	WR	15.9	4,900	12.5	5,600
ATL	LAC	7.1	Kyle Pitts	TE	13.0	4,500	10.4	6,300
MIN	WAS	6.0	Kirk Cousins	QB	17.9	6,200	16.7	7,900
MIN	WAS	6.0	Justin Jefferson	WR	18.8	8,600	14.8	9,000
MIN	WAS	6.0	T.J. Hockenson	TE	9.5	5,000	7.6	6,200
MIA	CHI	5.8	Tua Tagovailoa	QB	21.8	6,700	20.3	8,000
MIA	CHI	5.8	Tyreek Hill	WR	23.2	8,500	18.1	8,700
MIA	CHI	5.8	Mike Gesicki	TE	8.0	4,000	6.5	5,500
LA	TB	4.6	Matthew Stafford	QB	18.2	5,600	16.9	6,700
LA	TB	4.6	Cooper Kupp	WR	21.1	8,900	16.3	9,000
LA	TB	4.6	Tyler Higbee	TE	11.3	3,700	8.7	6,100
TB	LA	3.8	Tom Brady	QB	22.0	6,000	20.2	6,900
TB	LA	3.8	Mike Evans	WR	19.2	7,200	15.2	7,700
TB	LA	3.8	Cade Otton	TE	7.5	3,100	6.0	4,800
SEA	ARZ	3.3	Geno Smith	QB	19.9	5,800	18.5	7,500
SEA	ARZ	3.3	D.K. Metcalf	WR	15.7	6,400	12.6	7,400
SEA	ARZ	3.3	Noah Fant	TE	7.9	2,900	6.2	4,800
CAR	CIN	3.0	P.J. Walker	QB	15.4	5,200	14.3	6,500
CAR	CIN	3.0	D.J. Moore	WR	18.1	5,800	14.0	7,000
CAR	CIN	3.0	Tommy Tremble	TE	5.3	2,700	4.2	4,500
DET	GB	2.9	Jared Goff	QB	15.1	5,500	14.2	7,100
DET	GB	2.9	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	14.7	6,600	11.2	7,100
DET	GB	2.9	Brock Wright	TE	8.8	2,500	6.9	4,400
NYJ	BUF	2.2	Zach Wilson	QB	14.8	5,100	14.0	6,600
NYJ	BUF	2.2	Garrett Wilson	WR	12.9	4,800	10.2	5,800
NYJ	BUF	2.2	Tyler Conklin	TE	6.8	3,200	5.2	5,200
CHI	MIA	2.0	Justin Fields	QB	17.6	5,300	16.4	7,400
CHI	MIA	2.0	Darnell Mooney	WR	11.2	4,700	8.9	6,100
CHI	MIA	2.0	Cole Kmet	TE	7.6	3,000	5.9	4,700
NE	IND	2.0	Mac Jones	QB	17.1	5,100	16.1	6,400
NE	IND	2.0	Jakobi Meyers	WR	13.2	5,400	10.3	6,800
NE	IND	2.0	Hunter Henry	TE	8.0	3,000	6.4	4,700
JAX	LV	2.0	Trevor Lawrence	QB	17.9	5,200	16.6	6,800
JAX	LV	2.0	Christian Kirk	WR	13.7	5,500	10.9	6,300
JAX	LV	2.0	Evan Engram	TE	9.0	3,300	7.0	5,200
WAS	MIN	0.8	Taylor Heinicke	QB	16.9	5,400	15.9	7,200
WAS	MIN	0.8	Terry McLaurin	WR	13.5	5,900	10.6	7,200
WAS	MIN	0.8	Logan Thomas	TE	6.3	2,900	5.0	5,000
IND	NE	0.8	Sam Ehlinger	QB	15.9	5,000	15.0	6,300
IND	NE	0.8	Michael Pittman Jr.	WR	12.6	6,800	9.8	6,400
IND	NE	0.8	Kylen Granson	TE	3.2	2,700	2.5	4,400

QUARTERBACK/RUNNING BACK/WIDE RECEIVER

QB/RB/WR players

Team	Opponent	Highest %	Player	Pos	DK Fpts	DK Salary	FD Fpts	FD Salary
GB	DET	10.8	Aaron Rodgers	QB	23.6	5,900	22.2	7,000
GB	DET	10.8	Aaron Jones	RB	16.0	7,400	14.0	7,800
GB	DET	10.8	Allen Lazard	WR	13.6	6,000	11.1	6,500
BUF	NYJ	10.7	Josh Allen	QB	26.3	8,500	24.7	9,300
BUF	NYJ	10.7	Devin Singletary	RB	9.5	5,700	8.5	6,000
BUF	NYJ	10.7	Stefon Diggs	WR	17.8	8,400	14.0	8,900
LAC	ATL	9.5	Justin Herbert	QB	22.6	7,200	21.2	7,800
LAC	ATL	9.5	Austin Ekeler	RB	18.5	8,800	15.6	9,400
LAC	ATL	9.5	Josh Palmer	WR	12.5	5,100	9.9	6,200
JAX	LV	7.3	Trevor Lawrence	QB	17.9	5,200	16.6	6,800
JAX	LV	7.3	Travis Etienne	RB	15.3	6,300	13.3	7,600
JAX	LV	7.3	Christian Kirk	WR	13.7	5,500	10.9	6,300
ATL	LAC	6.7	Marcus Mariota	QB	21.0	5,300	19.6	7,100
ATL	LAC	6.7	Tyler Allgeier	RB	9.9	5,400	8.9	6,400
ATL	LAC	6.7	Drake London	WR	15.9	4,900	12.5	5,600
DET	GB	6.5	Jared Goff	QB	15.1	5,500	14.2	7,100
DET	GB	6.5	D'Andre Swift	RB	14.3	6,400	12.1	7,500
DET	GB	6.5	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	14.7	6,600	11.2	7,100
SEA	ARZ	5.4	Geno Smith	QB	19.9	5,800	18.5	7,500
SEA	ARZ	5.4	Kenneth Walker III	RB	16.4	6,200	14.4	8,300
SEA	ARZ	5.4	D.K. Metcalf	WR	15.7	6,400	12.6	7,400
CIN	CAR	5.2	Joe Burrow	QB	22.8	6,600	21.3	8,500
CIN	CAR	5.2	Joe Mixon	RB	17.6	6,500	15.2	8,100
CIN	CAR	5.2	Tee Higgins	WR	19.7	7,300	15.7	8,000
ARZ	SEA	4.9	Kyler Murray	QB	22.8	7,400	21.5	8,200
ARZ	SEA	4.9	James Conner	RB	11.1	5,800	9.8	6,600
ARZ	SEA	4.9	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	19.5	7,900	15.2	8,600
LA	TB	4.4	Matthew Stafford	QB	18.2	5,600	16.9	6,700
LA	TB	4.4	Darrell Henderson	RB	12.0	5,100	10.7	5,700
LA	TB	4.4	Cooper Kupp	WR	21.1	8,900	16.3	9,000
LV	JAX	4.2	Derek Carr	QB	19.0	5,400	17.6	6,800
LV	JAX	4.2	Josh Jacobs	RB	16.4	7,300	14.4	8,800
LV	JAX	4.2	Davante Adams	WR	17.9	8,100	14.0	8,100
TB	LA	3.8	Tom Brady	QB	22.0	6,000	20.2	6,900
TB	LA	3.8	Leonard Fournette	RB	12.7	6,600	11.1	7,100
TB	LA	3.8	Mike Evans	WR	19.2	7,200	15.2	7,700
CAR	CIN	3.4	P.J. Walker	QB	15.4	5,200	14.3	6,500
CAR	CIN	3.4	D'Onta Foreman	RB	10.4	6,000	9.3	7,300
CAR	CIN	3.4	D.J. Moore	WR	18.1	5,800	14.0	7,000
CHI	MIA	3.2	Justin Fields	QB	17.6	5,300	16.4	7,400
CHI	MIA	3.2	David Montgomery	RB	10.1	6,000	9.0	7,000
CHI	MIA	3.2	Darnell Mooney	WR	11.2	4,700	8.9	6,100
MIN	WAS	3.2	Kirk Cousins	QB	17.9	6,200	16.7	7,900
MIN	WAS	3.2	Dalvin Cook	RB	18.4	7,800	15.8	8,500
MIN	WAS	3.2	Justin Jefferson	WR	18.8	8,600	14.8	9,000
NYJ	BUF	2.8	Zach Wilson	QB	14.8	5,100	14.0	6,600
NYJ	BUF	2.8	James Robinson	RB	8.0	5,400	7.1	6,000
NYJ	BUF	2.8	Garrett Wilson	WR	12.9	4,800	10.2	5,800
IND	NE	2.5	Sam Ehlinger	QB	15.9	5,000	15.0	6,300
IND	NE	2.5	Jonathan Taylor	RB	16.7	7,700	14.5	6,800
IND	NE	2.5	Michael Pittman Jr.	WR	12.6	6,800	9.8	6,400
MIA	CHI	2.4	Tua Tagovailoa	QB	21.8	6,700	20.3	8,000
MIA	CHI	2.4	Raheem Mostert	RB	14.4	6,100	12.6	6,500
MIA	CHI	2.4	Tyreek Hill	WR	23.2	8,500	18.1	8,700
NE	IND	2.4	Mac Jones	QB	17.1	5,100	16.1	6,400
NE	IND	2.4	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	14.0	6,200	12.4	8,000
NE	IND	2.4	Jakobi Meyers	WR	13.2	5,400	10.3	6,800
WAS	MIN	1.7	Taylor Heinicke	QB	16.9	5,400	15.9	7,200
WAS	MIN	1.7	Antonio Gibson	RB	10.7	5,500	9.3	6,100
WAS	MIN	1.7	Terry McLaurin	WR	13.5	5,900	10.6	7,200

METHODOLOGY

For each game on the DFS Sunday main slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014-2021 and found the closest analogies according to the following parameters: Betting spread, over/under, average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

Once I find the 75 most similar matchups for each upcoming game, I then simulate the main slate 10,000 times by randomly choosing one of the 75 matchups for each game and then find the highest scoring QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE and QB-RB-WR stacks on the entire simulated slate.

Every match of historical and current games is not perfect, but by matching 75 different matchups to each game and simulating 10,000 times, we can smooth out the bumps and get a strong picture of how a slate of similar games would have played out.

The last step is totaling up the number of times a particular team shows up as the top stacks for each of the three stacks projected and then dividing that number by the total simulations. That number is what I call the “Highest scoring %” on the Y-axis of the plots below labeled by team logo. Below the plots by team, I join the highest projected players that make up the stacks for that team and list their projected fantasy points and salaries for DraftKings and FanDuel.

HOW TO VIEW THE PLOTS

Each plot below has every team on the main slate positioned by the combined salary of the stack and the percentage of time that team’s stack was the highest scoring in the 10K simulations.

A way to look at them is that anything above the dashed horizontal line is a good scoring stack, and anything to the right of the dashed vertical line is a high-priced stack. You should pay most attention to the upper-right (high-scoring and high-priced) and upper-left (high-scoring and low-priced) quadrants. Ideally, you’ll find something in the upper-left that you’re confident in, but often paying up and moving into the upper-right can be beneficial.