Fire & Ice: Top starts, sits and sleepers in fantasy football for Week 4

• C.J. Stroud will have his first huge game of his sophomore season: After tough matchups over the last two weeks, Stroud will face the Jacksonville Jaguars at home, who just allowed Josh Allen to score 30 fantasy points against them.

• Rome Odunze is the Chicago Bears wide receiver with the most upside in Week 4: While DJ Moore is seeing shorter targets, Odunze has a knack for coming down with big plays. The Los Angeles Rams are allowing the second most yards per reception in the NFL to WRs this season.

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Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes

Are you struggling to set your fantasy lineups? Maybe I can help… Below you can find my top fire (boom) and ice (bust) players at each position for Week 4. I also include my sleeper of the week at each position in case you are in a deeper league or in need of a replacement for an ice player.

Don’t miss my Fire & Ice chart at the bottom of this page. There, I have listed out all of my fire, good, sleeper and ice plays for Week 4 of the 2024 fantasy football season.

Quarterbacks

Fire QB Start of the Week: C.J. Stroud (vs. JAX)

It has been a disappointing start to his sophomore season for C.J. Stroud., who is only averaging 14.3 fantasy points per game over the first three weeks. He has had tough matchups in back-to-back weeks against the Bears and Vikings, but he should have a much easier time against the Jaguars struggling defense.

The Jaguars are allowing the third most passing yards per game in the NFL, and they have zero defensive turnovers on the season. Josh Allen just put up over 30 fantasy points against them, and he didn’t even play in the fourth quarter. The Jaguars simply do not have good enough defensive personnel to effectively cover Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Stroud is a top-five fantasy play this week.

Sleeper QB of the Week: Caleb Williams (vs. LAR)

The Bears run game is so incredibly bad that Caleb Williams is being asked to pass at an alarming rate for a rookie — Williams’ 118 pass attempts are second most in the NFL, behind only Dak Prescott (122). He put up awful fantasy performances over the first two weeks but finished as the QB10 in Week 3 on the back of 52 pass attempts.

The Rams defense has now allowed a quarterback to score 25 fantasy points against them in each of the last two weeks — both Kyler Murray and Brock Purdy threw for three touchdowns and zero interceptions against them. It is likely that Williams will still make some errant throws this Sunday, but I expect that he will finish as a top-10 fantasy QB again in Week 4.

Ice QB Start of the Week: Patrick Mahomes (vs. LAC)

Something that no one seems to want to admit is that Patrick Mahomes has not been a good fantasy quarterback for a long time. It has now been eight straight games, dating back to Week 13 of last season, that Mahomes has finished as the QB14 or worse on the week. He has not finished a top eight fantasy quarterback since Week 7, 2023 — well over 300 days ago.

Mahomes is averaging 4.6 air yards per attempt, which is by far the lowest among all qualified quarterbacks. Yet, the Chiefs are still winning … So, I don’t expect anything to change anytime soon, especially against a tough Chargers defense.

Running Backs

Fire RB Start of the Week: Najee Harris (at IND)

Both teams are projected to lean heavy on the run in this matchup. Najee Harris already has the sixth most rushing attempts in the NFL this season, and now it looks like Jaylen Warren is doubtful to play in Week 4 with a knee injury.

Harris has yet to run for more than 70 rushing yards or find the end zone this season, but that should change in a juicy matchup against the Colts. Over the first two weeks of the season, the Colts had allowed 237 rushing yards per game — then they got lucky and got to face the Bears incompetent run offense.

There is no reason that Harris wont see 20 carries in this matchup and if he can score a TD, he should comfortably finish as a top-12 fantasy RB this week.

Sleeper RB of the Week: Chuba Hubbard (vs. CIN)

The Panthers offense has been saved by Andy Dalton while the team gives Bryce Young some time to sit on the bench and think about how terrible he has been. With a competent quarterback under center, Chuba Hubbard finished as the RB5 in Week 3, while putting up 114 yards on the ground, plus 55 yards and touchdown through the air.

Hubbard gets a nice matchup against the Bengals who allowed Rhondre Stevenson to score 21.6 points in Week 1, Isiah Pacheco to score 16.1 points in Week 2, and Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr. to combine for 24.4 points in Week 3.

Ice RB Start of the Week: Josh Jacobs (vs. MIN)

Josh Jacobs is averaging just 10.4 fantasy points per game this season, which ranks 31st among running backs, and he has yet to hit 14 points in a game. Jacobs is not only struggling to score fantasy points, but he is also starting to lose playing time and workload to Emanuel Wilson, who was far more efficient than him in Week 3.

Unfortunately, the outlook only gets more bleak for Jacobs as he has to face the Vikings excellent defense this weekend. Through three weeks, the Vikings have allowed the third fewest rushing yards per game and yards per carry while only allowing one rushing touchdown.

Most Jacobs’ fantasy managers will likely have to start him this week but temper your expectations.

Wide Receivers

Fire WR Start of the Week: Rome Odonuze (vs. LAR)

As I mentioned under Caleb Williams‘ section, the Bears are passing at an alarming rate, which is giving Odunze a lot of opportunities — Odunze has run the third most routes in the NFL over the first three weeks of the season, despite him dealing with a lower body injury to start the year. In Week 3, Odunze was on the field for nearly 99% of offensive snaps and led the Bears with 11 targets, 112 receiving yards and scored a touchdown. His breakout should continue this Sunday in an A-plus matchup.

The Rams have allowed a wide receiver to have 120-plus receiving yards, one-plus touchdown and 25-plus fantasy points against them in each game this season (Jameson Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jauan Jennings). The Rams are allowing the second most yards per reception in the NFL to WRs this season, while Odouze has been a big play machine averaging 17.3 yards per reception, which ranks fifth in the NFL (min. 20 targets).

Sleeper WR Start of the Week: Michael Wilson (vs. WAS)

It was a quiet first couple of weeks for second-year wide receiver Michael Wilson, who showed promise as a rookie, but he was much more involved in the Cardinals offense in Week 3. Last Sunday, Wilson led the Cardinals with eight receptions and only ran one fewer route and saw one fewer target than Marvin Harrison Jr.

The Commanders have allowed a league-high 52.1 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position this season. There is room for both Harrison and Wilson to eat in this matchup … especially if Trey McBride misses the game in concussion protocol.

Ice WR Start of the Week: Garrett Wilson vs. DEN

I guess it doesn’t really matter who is under center for the Jets, Garrett Wilson is just going to be stuck being an average fantasy producer. Over the first three weeks of the season with Aaron Rodgers, Wilson has finished as the WR29, 33 and 29. He has yet to have more than six receptions or 60 receiving yards in a game this season, in fact, he has only hit 80 receiving yards once over his last 11 games played.

This week he will get a heavy dose of coverage from Patrick Surtain II, who has done a fantastic job at shutting down opposing WR1s this season. DK Metcalf, Mike Evans and George Pickens all scored fewer than six fantasy points in their matchup against the Broncos in 2024. It looks like it will be another underwhelming fantasy performance from Wilson this week.

Tight Ends

Fire TE Start of the Week: Dallas Goedert (at TB)

Not only did Goedert show that he still has a high ceiling with a massive game in Week 3, but he will be a necessity as the top target for Jalen Hurts this weekend with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both likely to be out. With the position being sparsely used across the NFL, there is no tight end that has a chance for more targets than Goedert in Week 4

Sleeper TE of the Week: Tyler Conklin (vs. DEN)

Conklin finished as the fantasy TE4 in Week 3 with five receptions for 93 yards. He is consistently on the field, playing 91.6% of the Jets offensive snaps this season and he has run the sixth most routes among all tight ends. With Garrett Wilson likely to get shadowed by Pat Surtain, Aaron Rodgers will need to go to his other playmakers.

Conklin isn’t an exciting start, but if you are desperate this week with a multitude of injuries across the tight end position, he is a viable option that can be found on waivers.

Ice TE Start of the Week: Mark Andrews (vs. BUF)

The disappearing act by Mark Andrews is truly astonishing this season. Not only was he targeted just one time in Week 3, but he was on the field for only 33% of the offensive snaps and ran just six routes all game long.

Through three weeks, Andrews has eight targets, six receptions and just 17.7 fantasy points on the season. We all know what Andrews can do if he is properly utilized, but until we see his usage increase, it is hard to trust him in your fantasy lineups.

Fire & Ice Fantasy Football Plays

Here, I categorize every relevant fantasy player into five different buckets: (1) fire starts (best starts of the week); (2) thumbs up (good starts); (3) Risky players with upside (sleepers); (4) Ice starts (predicting bad performance from good player); (5) Stop (must sits).

Note: If a player/defense is not listed, I am not considering starting them in Week 4. I did not include Cowboys/Giants players as they played on Thursday night.