Fire & Ice: Top starts, sits and sleepers in fantasy football for Week 16

• Don’t forget about old man Matthew Stafford: Stafford is averaging 18 fantasy points per game since Week 8 and gets a great matchup against the New York Jets , who have surprisingly let many quarterbacks have big games against them as of late.

• Jonathan Taylor will score multiple TDs after “dropping the ball” last week: Yes, Taylor got too excited and celebrated a tad too early before crossing the goal line in Week 15, but he will make up for it by scoring at least two touchdowns against the Tennessee Titans this Sunday.

• Dominate your fantasy draft: Subscribe to PFF+ to get full access to PFF’s suite of fantasy football tools, including the fantasy mock draft simulator, live draft assistant, fantasy draft rankings, cheat sheets and more! Click here to subscribe!

Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes

Are you struggling to set your fantasy lineups? Maybe I can help… Below you can find my top fire (boom) and ice (bust) players at each position for Week 16. I also include my sleeper of the week at each position in case you are in a deeper league or in need of a replacement for an ice player.

Don’t miss my Fire & Ice chart at the bottom of this page. There, I have listed out all of my fire, good, sleeper and ice plays for Week 16 of the 2024 fantasy football season.

Quarterbacks

Fire QB Start of the Week: Baker Mayfield (at DAL)

Baker Mayfield has thrown three-plus touchdowns in seven games in 2024, only Joe Burrow has had more such games (eight). Not only has Mayfield shown great fantasy upside on a regular basis, but he has also been incredibly consistent — Mayfield has hit at least 18 fantasy points in 11 games this season, which is tied for the second most among QBs with Josh Allen and only behind Lamar Jackson 12).

The Dallas Cowboys have allowed 19.8 fantasy points on average to opposing QBs this season, which ranks fourth most in the NFL. When playing at home, the Cowboys' defense has allowed a league-high 33.4 points per game to opponents in 2024, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored an NFL-most 31.6 points per game on the road.

Sleeper QB of the Week: Matthew Stafford (at NYJ)

Despite putting up a couple of dud performances, including his bad performance in Week 15 in heavy rain, Matthew Stafford is averaging 18 fantasy points per game since Week 8. Before last week, he had four straight games with multiple passing touchdowns and scored 27.8, 19.2, 15.6, and 20.8 fantasy points during that span.

The New York Jets‘ passing defense has been very leaky as of late — since Week 10, Kyler Murray (28.7 fantasy points) Anthony Richardson (28.1), Tua Tagovailoa (23.5) and even Mac Jones (18.7) have had good fantasy outings against the New York Jets.

Ice QB Start of the Week: Jared Goff (at CHI)

Jared Goff is often fantastic at home but when you take him out of his dome, his production struggles greatly. Over the last two seasons, Goff has put up 15-plus fantasy points in only five games played on the road — three of those five games were played in a dome and the other two such games were played in a warm weather state (Florida and California).

Goff has made four career starts in Chicago and has averaged just 8.9 fantasy points in those games — he has never scored more than 16.8 points facing the Chicago Bears on the road. Last year when he played in Chicago, Goff scored a season-low 4.4 fantasy points.

Running Backs

Fire RB Start of the Week: Jonathan Tayor (vs. TEN)

It hasn’t been fun starting Jonathan Taylor over the second half of this season. He has averaged just 10.2 fantasy points per game since Week 9 and hasn’t successfully crossed the goalline as a runner since Week 8. However, he is getting a ton of volume and he should be able to find the end zone in Week 16 against the Tennessee Titans, who have allowed the most touchdowns to running backs this season. After last week’s fumble debacle, I predict Taylor will put up a week-winning performance for his fantasy managers in Week 16 with multiple touchdowns.

Sleeper RB of the Week: Jerome Ford (at CIN)

With Nick Chubb going down with another season-ending injury in Week 15, Jerome Ford scored 18.4 fantasy points and put up a season-high 84 rush yards. Ford has had 14-plus touches in just two games in 2024 but he scored over 15 fantasy points in both of those games. He should see great volume this Sunday in a fantastic matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, who have allowed a league-high 32.5 fantasy points per game to the running back position over the last weeks. They have been especially bad at covering running backs in the passing game, while Ford saw at least five targets in each game that Dorian Thompson-Robinson started in 2023.

Ice RB Start of the Week: Najee Harris (at BAL)

Najee Harris had one big game over the last month, against the poor Cincinnati Bengals defense. Outside of that, he has averaged just 7.3 fantasy points in three of his last four games. Not only is his rushing efficiency lackluster, but the Pittsburgh Steelers are also starting to fade him out of their offense. In last week’s game, he tied his career-low with just six carries and played on only 32.6% of the team’s offensive snaps — the lowest percent he has ever seen in a game he wasn’t injured. The Baltimore Ravens are allowing the fewest yards per carry in the NFL and unless Harris’ workload significantly increases this weekend, his fantasy ceiling and floor are both extremely low.

Wide Receivers

Fire WR Start of the Week: Malik Nabers (at ATL)

It doesn’t matter which New York Giants quarterback is under center, Malik Nabers is going to be hyper-targeted. It will be Drew Lock as the Giants' signal caller in Week 16, and yes, that is gross, but Nabers had 13 and 10 targets in two games already played, and he put up at least 15 fantasy points in both of those games. Nabers made up for 37% of Lock’s passing yards over his two starts.

This is a fantastic matchup for Naber to have a monster game. The Falcons have allowed the most receiving touchdowns and fourth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position in 2024. The eight wide receivers to see at least 10-plus targets in their matchup against the Atlanta Falcons have averaged 22.3 fantasy points. The last wide receiver to see double-digit targets against the Falcons was Jordan Addison in Week 14, who came down and put up eight receptions for 133 yards and three touchdowns!

Sleeper WR Start of the Week: Jalen McMillan (at DAL)

Third-round rookie Jalen McMillan has found the end zone three times over the last two weeks while notching 21.9 and 18.5 fantasy points in those games. He came down with a career-high five receptions and 75 receiving yards last Sunday in a tough matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. He gets a much easier matchup against the Dallas Cowboys this weekend, who have allowed the sixth most receiving yards to wide receivers this season.

Ice WR Start of the Week: DeVonta Smith (at WAS)

It was a great day all around for the Philadelphia Eagles’ passing attack last weekend against the Pittsburgh Steelers. DeVonta Smith even recorded his first-ever career game with 10-plus receptions and 100-plus receiving yards. However, Week 15 was Smith’s first game with 40-plus receiving yards since Week 9. He had just 10 receptions for 80 yards and 1 TD over his three previous games combined.

When the Eagles faced the Washington Commanders last month, they ran 40 times for 228 yards and three touchdowns. Smith had just four receptions for 29 yards on six targets in the game — and that was with Marshon Lattimore on the sidelines for the Commanders. Smith will see his fair share of Lattimore in coverage this weekend, who was targeted zero times on 35 coverage snaps in his debut with the Commanders last weekend.

Tight Ends

Fire TE Start of the Week: Trey McBride (at CAR)

Trey McBride is having a monster yardage season but somehow he has still yet to find the end zone. He can’t go the whole season without scoring a touchdown… right?… right!!??? McBride already has 89 receptions on the year, the second most among tight ends in 2024. No tight end in NFL history has caught 70 balls in a single season and not scored a single touchdown. We know McBride will put up plenty of yards but he should also come down with at least one touchdown this weekend against the Carolina Panthers, who have allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends this year.

Sleeper TE of the Week: Brenton Strange (vs LV)

Extra playing time and targets are available in the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense with Evan Engram on IR, and their backup tight end Brenton Strange took full advantage of his opportunity last week. Strange recorded a career-high with 12 targets, 11 receptions and 73 receiving yards in Week 15 against the Jets.

He gets a juicy matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends in 2024. Since Week 8, a tight end has scored at least 10 fantasy points against the Raiders six times — Travis Kelce (did it twice; 25.0 and 13.8), Jonnu Smith (28.1), Mike Gesicki (27.0) , Drew Sample (11.4) and Cade Otton (10.0).

Ice TE Start of the Week: Tucker Kraft (vs NO)

Tucker Kraft has had fewer than 42 receiving yards in five of his last six games. The occasional touchdowns are the only thing that is saving his fantasy value but the New Orleans Saints have allowed just one touchdown to a tight end all season long. Even if ends up being the second tight end to find the end zone against the Saints this season, his ceiling is still around just 13 fantasy points. While if he doesn’t score a touchdown his floor is as low as five or fewer points. The risk just isn’t worth the reward.

Fire & Ice Fantasy Football Plays

Here, I categorize every relevant fantasy player into five different buckets: (1) fire starts (best starts of the week); (2) thumbs up (good starts); (3) Risky players with upside (sleepers); (4) Ice starts (predicting bad performance from good player); (5) Stop (must sits).

Note: If a player/defense is not listed, I am not considering starting them in Week 16. Also, I did not include the Broncos/Chargers because they played on Thursday night.