Fire & Ice: Top starts, sits and sleepers in fantasy football for Week 11

• Justin Herbert is primed for a huge fantasy outing on SNF: It has been three straight weeks that Herbert has been a good fantasy QB, putting up at least 19 points in each game. He faces the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night, who are allowing the fifth most points per game to quarterbacks in 2024.

• Deebo Samuel owns the Seahawks: In eight career matchups against the Seattle Seahawks, Samuel has averaged 128.4 scrimmage yards per game and 25 fantasy points. That is the most career scrimmage yards per game among any wide receiver vs any single opponent in the Super Bowl era (minimum six games played).

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Estimated Reading Time: 11 minutes

Are you struggling to set your fantasy lineups? Maybe I can help… Below you can find my top fire (boom) and ice (bust) players at each position for Week 11. I also include my sleeper of the week at each position in case you are in a deeper league or in need of a replacement for an ice player.

Don’t miss my Fire & Ice chart at the bottom of this page. There, I have listed out all of my fire, good, sleeper and ice plays for Week 11 of the 2024 fantasy football season.

Quarterbacks

Fire QB Start of the Week: Justin Herbert (vs CIN)

On the stat sheet, it hasn’t been an exciting season for Justin Herbert … but he is starting to heat up in his new offensive system. He has scored two touchdowns and at least 19 fantasy points in each of the last three weeks while tapping into his running abilities as of late. This Sunday night, he gets a juicy matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, who have allowed the fifth most fantasy points on average to quarterbacks this season. Over the last three weeks, both Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson have destroyed Cincinnati for 33-plus points a piece in their matchup. I am predicting that this will be Herbert’s first game of the season with at least three touchdowns.

Sleeper QB of the Week: Russell Wilson (vs. BAL)

Wilson has scored at least 18 fantasy points in two of his three starts with the Pittsburgh Steelers, scoring three touchdowns in both of those games. The only game he disappointed fantasy managers was in Week 8 against the New York Giants when he scored 13.8 points — but it is worth noting that he had two passing touchdowns to George Pickens called back in that game. The Baltimore Ravens are a very tough run defense and the Steelers will need to lean on their passing game to have a chance to win in this critical divisional showdown.

The Ravens have allowed the most passing yards per game and passing touchdowns in the NFL this season. Since Week 5, Joe Burrow (33.8 and 33.7 points), Baker Mayfield (27), Jameis Winston (23.6) and Jayden Daniels (21) all scored over 20 fantasy points in their matchup against Baltimore.

Ice QB Start of the Week: Kirk Cousins (at DEN)

There have only been two games that Kirk Cousins has scored 18-plus fantasy points this season — both of them came against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ atrocious pass defense. He has put up fewer than 13 points in six of his other eight games this season. Plus, Cousins has historically struggled on the road throughout his career, especially in a cold environment like Denver, while the Denver Broncos have held opposing quarterbacks to just 9.6 fantasy points in their home games. No quarterback has scored more than 13 points playing in Denver this season.

Running Backs

Fire RB Start of the Week: Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery (vs. JAX)

Jahmyr Gibbs steals all the attention in the Detroit Lions’ backfield due to his insane speed, burst and great receiving ability, but I expect both he and David Montgomery to have huge fantasy performances this weekend against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Montgomery has the exact same number of carries (122) and only four fewer receptions than Gibbs in 2024. They are both scoring machines, each ranking top five among running backs in rushing touchdowns this season. Montgomery has scored a rushing touchdown in seven games this season, only Derrick Henry has more such games to his name in 2024.

The Jaguars have allowed the third most fantasy points per game and rushing touchdowns to running backs in 2024. Over their last three weeks, both Saquon Barkley (32.9 points) and Josh Jacobs (25.5) finished in the top three at their position in fantasy points the week they faced the Jaguars.

Sleeper RB of the Week: Audric Estime (vs. ATL)

Sean Payton has finally realized that Javonte Williams is not cut out to lead a successful NFL backfield. Last weekend, fifth-round rookie Audric Estime was handed the keys to the backfield, leading the RB group in snaps and with a career-high 14 carries in the game — Williams had just one carry the entire game. Estime had an uninspiring performance in his first chance with a sizeable workload … but almost all running backs have struggled against the Kansas City Chiefs this season.

If Estime gets the chance to lead the Broncos’ backfield in Week 11, he should find success against the Falcons who have been leaky against running backs as of late. Since Week 6, Kenneth Walker III (23.3), Rico Dowdle (21.7), Alvin Kamara (15.9), Rachaad White (15.7), Bucky Irving (15.4) and Chuba Hubbard (15.3) have each scored a least 15 fantasy point against the Atlanta Falcons.

Ice RB Start of the Week: Tony Pollard (vs. MIN)

With teammate Tyjae Spears back from injury, Pollard received just nine carries and played on a season-low 53.7% of Tennesse's offensive snaps in Week 10. The Tennessee Titans are determined to give Spears and Pollard a 50-50 split of the backfield as long as both are healthy. This is an unfortunate matchup for Pollard and Spears to have to split their backfield fantasy points as the Minnesota Vikings are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position in 2024.

A couple other things working against Pollard is that he was on the sidelines for almost all of the Titans’ third down plays in Week 10 with Spears taking that role back, and Pollard has not seen a goal line carry since Week 4. I am expecting very poor fantasy output from Pollard in Week 11.

Wide Receivers

Fire WR Start of the Week: Deebo Samuel (vs SEA)

Here are Deebo Samuel’s fantasy points in career matchups against the Seattle Seahawks: 19, 25, 36, 15, 39, 22, 34, 21. He has averaged 109 receiving yards per game, 128 scrimmage yards per game and has scored eight touchdowns over eight career matchups against the Seahawks. Just over a month ago, Samuel put up a season-high 20.7 fantasy points in Seattle with 102 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 6.

On top of that, the Seahawks' secondary has fallen apart as of late. Over their last three games, Seattle has allowed five different wide receivers to score 18-plus fantasy points, including DeMarcus Robinson (27.4) and Cooper Kupp (21.4) who each scored 21-plus points against them in their last game.

Sleeper WR Start of the Week: Quentin Johnston (vs. CIN)

Johnston has hit double-digit fantasy points in four of his last six games, including two weeks with 22-plus points. No doubt, he is a risk to plug into your starting lineup as his fantasy production is highly dependent on whether he comes down with a long touchdown or not, but in this matchup against the Bengals, it is a good bet to happen.

Johnston is expected to see a lot of Cam Taylor-Britt in coverage this Sunday night. No player has allowed more yards or touchdowns in coverage than Taylor-Britt this season. Over the last three weeks, Tylan Wallace, DeVonta Smith, Jakobi Meyers, and Rashod Bateman each scored at least 17 fantasy points in their matchup against the Bengals.

Ice WR Start of the Week: Darnell Mooney (at DEN)

Mooney has put up over 85 receiving yards and scored at least 14 fantasy points in three straight games, but I expect that streak to end in Week 11 in a tough matchup. The Broncos have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points, fourth-fewest receiving touchdowns, and sixth-fewest yards per reception to wide receivers in 2024. With teammate Drake London playing a lot of snaps from the slot this season, Mooney will have the toughest job amongst the Falcons’ wide receiver corps on Sunday as he is projected to see a lot of Pat Surtain II in coverage.

Tight Ends

Fire TE Start of the Week: David Njoku (at NO)

It was a disappointing last game for David Njoku, who had just 29 receiving yards on five receptions in Week 9 against the Los Angeles Chargers. However, Njoku has seen at least seven targets in four straight games and had 60-plus yards and a touchdown in each of his previous two outings prior to Week 9. With the Cleveland Browns coming off their bye, Jameis Winston has had a week to settle in as the team’s starting QB and continue to work on his connection with his playmakers. This is a favorable matchup for fantasy tight ends as the New Orleans Saints have allowed the third-most yards per reception to the position in 2024.

Sleeper TE of the Week: Dawson Knox (vs KC)

It seems there is a good chance that Dalton Kincaid will miss the Buffalo Bills‘ highly anticipated Week 11 game against the Chiefs. Last week with Kincaid banged up, Knox played on a season-high 70% of the Bills snaps and reeled in two receptions for 40 yards. If Knox plays on 70% of the Bills' offensive snaps against the Chiefs, I like the odds of him having his first good fantasy performance of the season. The Chiefs are allowing a league-high 78 receiving yards per game to the tight end position in 2024.

Ice TE Start of the Week: Jake Ferguson (vs HOU)

Jake Ferguson has put up fewer than 25 yards in three of his last four games and he has yet to score a touchdown this season. This Dallas Cowboys offense is just so broken and I don’t expect them to magically fix their issues without Dak Prescott, especially as long as Mike McCarthy is still the head coach.

To add salt to the wound of Ferguson’s fantasy managers, the Houston Texans are allowing just 25 receiving yards per game to the tight end position this season, by far the fewest among all teams. Ferguson will need to score a touchdown to have any fantasy value, but I don’t have high hopes for him to come down with his first touchdown of the season with Cooper Rush (or Trey Lance) in the backfield.

Fire & Ice Fantasy Football Plays

Here, I categorize every relevant fantasy player into five different buckets: (1) fire starts (best starts of the week); (2) thumbs up (good starts); (3) Risky players with upside (sleepers); (4) Ice starts (predicting bad performance from good player); (5) Stop (must sits).

Note: If a player/defense is not listed, I am not considering starting them in Week 11. I did not include Commanders/Eagles players as they play on Thursday night.