Fantasy Football: Favorable early-season pass- and run-game schedules

• Chicago Bears: Chicago’s passing attack faces an extremely soft first-half-season slate.

• Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh’s passing offense will surprise in September.

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Estimated reading time: 11 minutes

Identifying exploitable defensive matchups gives fantasy managers an all-around weekly edge over the opponent. Whether it is a tough WR3 or RB2 decision in re-draft or deciding on a chalky DFS WR1, easily beatable opponents can reliably elevate offensive play. The article below details three NFL teams’ early-season schedules featuring favorable pass defenses and run defenses for fantasy managers to target, with one such team receiving favorable scheduling into the double-digit weeks.

Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears face perhaps the NFL’s single-softest defensive schedule to start the year, featuring nine exploitable pass defenses and three exploitable run defenses in Weeks 1-11. This article is geared toward identifying beatable September opponents, but Chicago’s 2024 defensive slate generally remains cozy well into November. Fantasy managers should regularly target these matchups each week. 

Chicago’s Weeks 1-to-12 schedule:

Chicago’s schedule opens with three straight AFC South contests, keyed by a Week 2 game against the Houston Texans, whose top-to-bottom defensive interior struggles are detailed in “3 run defenses to target in 2024“ and “3 TE1 breakout candidates in 2024.” The latter article also details the Tennessee Titans’ interior coverage liabilities. The front office attempted to bolster the unit by recreating two-thirds of the Seattle Seahawks 2023 safety unit, signing free safety Quandre Diggs and strong safety Jamal Adams but among 83 NFL safeties with at least 270 coverage snaps, Diggs (55.4 PFF coverage grade) and Adams (50.7 PFF coverage grade) both rank outside the top 70 in PFF coverage grade.

The Indianapolis Colts are successfully building a bullying defense but the team’s perimeter cornerback coverage in nickel packages remains a liability. The nickel-package perimeter cornerback unit allowed the 10th-most yards per coverage snap (2.16) and the eighth-highest explosive pass play rate (5.3%) among NFL perimeter coverage units. Its 59.8 PFF coverage grade ranks 26th and the front office failed to improve its personnel this offseason.

The Los Angeles Rams lost rotational cornerback Derion Kendrick to a torn ACL in July and new starting perimeter cornerback Darious Williams suffered a hamstring strain. No. 1 cornerback Tre’Davious White is currently healthy, but he has yet to play a full season since 2020, as he tore an ACL in 2021 and ruptured an Achilles tendon in 2023. Kendrick’s 60.4 PFF coverage grade in 2023 was a 15.6-point improvement from his 2022 rookie season. Williams’ 85.3 PFF coverage grade ties for fifth among 65 NFL cornerbacks with at least 415 coverage snaps. White’s 79.0 PFF coverage grade in 2023 is his best PFF coverage grade since his 2017 rookie season, though he played just 182 defensive snaps. The team’s interior coverage issues are likewise covered in 3 TE1 Breakout Candidates in 2024.

Carolina Panthers No. 1 cornerback Jaycee Horn’s first three seasons featured foot (2021) and wrist (2022) fractures, capped off with a recurring hamstring strain (2023). He earned a career-best 83.0 PFF coverage grade playing in six games last year, making him the only current Carolina cornerback coming off better than a 69.7 PFF coverage grade.

The front seven lost edge rusher Brian Burns via trade this offseason. Burns accounts for 44.5 of Carolina’s 109.5 edge rusher NFL sacks over the last five seasons. Among 20 NFL edge rushers with at least 2,000 pass-rushing snaps during that span, Burns’ 83.3 PFF pass-rush grade ranks 11th. The remaining defensive line possesses just two players who earned at least a 72.0 PFF pass-rush grade last year and none who cleared 80.0. Burns also totaled 10 tackles for loss or no gain in run defense last year, tying for 17th among NFL edge rushers and interior defenders.

The Jacksonville Jaguars added to its interior defender corps oft-injured 30-year-old interior defender Arik Armstead and a former LSU tandem, via the 2024 NFL draft’s second and fourth rounds. The unit’s 58.4 PFF run-defense grade ranks 10th among NFL teams but fails to inspire, and its 21 missed tackles were the position’s second-highest sum. Armstead’s PFF run-defense grades have steadily declined since 2019, culminating in a 52.7 PFF run-defense grade in 2023, the second-worst of his career.

Jacksonville’s front office selected edge rusher Travon Walker with the 2022 NFL draft’s No. 1 overall pick. Among 64 NFL edge rushers with at least 555 pass-rushing snaps over the last two seasons, Walker’s 58.5 PFF pass-rush grade ranks 55th. 

As mentioned in the Los Angeles Rams section, Jacksonville’s former No. 1 cornerback Darious Williams left via free agency this offseason. Fourth-year cornerback Tyson Campbell and 30-year-old free agent signee cornerback Ronald Darby will now man the perimeter and both players have delivered erratic results over the course of their careers. Campbell sandwiches a 2022, 80.7 PFF coverage grade between two sub-60.0 PFF coverage grade seasons while Darby has bounced between a 39.8 PFF coverage grade and a 72.9 PFF coverage grade over the last five.

The Jacksonville linebacker corps’ annual coverage struggles against opposing linebackers continued in 2023. The unit’s 46.1 PFF coverage grade against opposing tight ends ranks 18th among NFL teams and it allowed explosive pass plays to the position at the league’s 12th-highest rate (7.5%).

The Washington Commanders’ league-worst perimeter cornerback unit is covered in “3 cornerbacks to target in 2024.”

The Arizona Cardinals‘ pass defense and run defense are respectively broken down in “3 pass defenses to target in 2024“ and “3 run defenses to target in 2024.”

Green Bay Packers slot cornerback Keisean Nixon is profiled in “3 cornerbacks to target in 2024.” His 63.7 PFF slot-coverage grade ranks 26th among 34 NFL slot-defensive backs with at least 200 slot-coverage snaps. He receives little assistance from No. 2 perimeter cornerback Eric Stokes, whose 2022 and 2023 campaigns were respectively derailed by Lisfranc and hamstring injuries. The lackluster 67.1 PFF coverage grade he earned in his 2021 rookie season remains his career-high.

Chicago’s first-half-season schedule is extremely favorable.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers are expected to employ a run-heavy approach under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, but fantasy managers will be able to gain leverage on the field by exploiting the team’s Weeks 1-4 pass-defense schedule. Pittsburgh respectively faces the Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers and Indianapolis Colts through the first four weeks.

Atlanta Falcons coaches reportedly penciled in journeyman cornerback Mike Hughes for the No. 2 perimeter cornerback role after failing in slot-coverage duties last year via a 72.7% pre-snap alignment slot rate. Hughes has finished with a sub-65.0 PFF coverage grade in five-of-six NFL seasons while surrendering double-digit explosive pass plays in three-of-six. 

Hughes is side-kicked by slot cornerback Dee Alford, who ranks bottom four among 34 NFL slot-defensive backs with at least 200 slot-coverage snaps in targeted rate (20.9%) and yards allowed per coverage snap (1.48). His 72.2 PFF slot-coverage grade ranks 14th.

Atlanta’s three-deep linebacker corps includes coverage-liability, linebacker Nate Landman, whose 2.4% explosive pass plays allowed rate ranks 50th and whose 1.06 yards allowed per coverage snap ties for 44th among 65 NFL linebackers with at least 270 coverage snaps. His 56.7 PFF coverage grade ranks 50th. Strong safety Richie Grant offers little help behind him. Among 65 NFL safeties with at least 350 coverage snaps, Grant’s 45.0 PFF coverage grade ranks 63rd.

Both the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers pass defenses are extensively detailed in “3 pass defenses to target in 2024.” Both teams possess serious coverage liabilities in the secondary and linebacker corps despite featuring at least one well-known, star player. 

Indianapolis’ perimeter coverage woes are detailed in Chicago’s section above.

Pittsburgh’s Weeks 1-4 pass defense schedule is easily exploitable.

Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions’ juggernaut offense kicks off the season against the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ vulnerable pass defenses before facing the Arizona Cardinals’ all-around-awful defensive unit. It makes for an extremely favorable early-season schedule.

The Los Angeles Rams’ pass-defense liabilities are detailed in Chicago’s section above, as are the Arizona Cardinals’ top-to-bottom defensive deficiencies, both in pass and run defense. 

Tampa Bay’s previously mighty defense lost depth this offseason, resulting in a subpar, shallow edge rusher unit and a middling cornerback corps. 

Free agent signee edge rusher Randy Gregory has yet to report for training camp, leaving the edge rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, whose fifth-round option the front office declined in May, and edge rusher Yaya Diaby to lead the way. Among 66 NFL edge rushers with at least 285 pass-rushing snaps, both Tryon-Shoyinka (10.8%, 10.1% and 5.9) and Diaby (6.7%, 9.2% and 6.0) respectively rank 46th or worse in pass-rush win rate, quarterback pressure rate and pass-rush productivity. Tryon-Shoyinka’s 67.2 PFF pass-rush grade ranks 41st and Diaby’s 56.0 PFF pass-rush grade ranks 63rd. Even if active, Gregory’s contributions are uncertain. The 54.5 PFF pass-rush grade he earned in 2023 is the second-worst of his career.

Among 66 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 300 perimeter coverage snaps, Tampa Bay No. 1 cornerback Jamel Dean (74.2 PFF perimeter-coverage grade) sneaks into the top-20 ranks while No. 2 cornerback Zyon McCollum (51.5 PFF perimeter-coverage grade) falls outside the top 60. Dean is not invulnerable though, ranking outside the top 40 in targeted rate (15.4%), catch rate allowed (68.1%), yards allowed per coverage snap (1.24) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (2.8%). Collum likewise ranks outside the top 50 in targeted rate (17.5%) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (3.4%). 

Tampa Bay slot cornerback Scott Izien ranks outside the top 20 in catch rate allowed (78.0%) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (2.4%) among 34 NFL slot-defensive backs with at least 200 slot-coverage snaps. His 66.7 PFF slot-coverage grade ranks 21st and he failed to force a single incompletion.

Detroit’s early-season schedule is extremely favorable.