Exception Report: Golden Tate on a big catch streak

Welcome to the Exception Report. This series is designed to examine players and their impressive seasons, games, and/or plays. It looks for the outliers and helps understand how they are doing it and if it can continue.

When mentioning top receivers in this generation, Golden Tate is often overlooked. Part of that is a result of his early years in Seattle where he was efficient but was largely underutilized. Another reason may be his stature (5-foot-10, 197 pounds) and his subsequent lack of receiving touchdowns, but more on that later. Tate has become a high-volume receiver in Detroit, accruing at least 90 receptions in his first three seasons there and on pace for a fourth. If he can accomplish that, Tate would become just the seventh player to put together a stretch of that magnitude. The list, below courtesy of Pro Football Reference, is an impressive collection of receivers:

How did he get here?

Unlike most profiled in this series, Tate is a well-established veteran. Still, his time at Notre Dame flashed a player who was already an excellent route runner and dangerous after the catch. He also showed himself capable of being a top option in a passing offense. The questions centered around his size and if he had the explosiveness to be a threat in the deep part of the field.

As a Seahawks second-round pick, Tate walked into a situation with an uncertain quarterback group (remember Tarvaris Jackson?) and a transition to a defense-oriented team. As a result, he saw just 95 targets through his first two seasons. His catch rates were the lowest he’d experience as a professional, to this point, and fortunately the Seahawks saw an opportunity with the selection of Russell Wilson.

Wilson’s addition took Tate from a “what if” receiver into finally seeing what he could do. In the two years with Wilson, Tate ranked third and then first in forced missed tackles, showing off his ability to create after the catch. He also ranked 16th and second in average yards after the catch per reception, showing how playmaking ability takes many forms. All the while, Tate never ranked inside the top-50 in total routes run and seeing less than 20 percent of those in the slot position.

What has he done?

The move to Detroit not only place him with a team who saw him as a top receiving option, but also placed him with an offense who passed the football more than 600 times per season (Wilson barely exceeded 400 in Tate’s last year in Seattle). With that has come three seasons of 90-plus receptions with some subtle changes from his time in Seattle.

Tate has had two different timeframes in Detroit — one that included Calvin Johnson and one that didn’t. The first two years, with Johnson, had Tate with just over 55 percent of his routes from the slot. He also ranked second and third in total routes run, increasing his volume significantly with a slight drop in yards per route run, from 1.90 his last two years in Seattle to roughly 1.70 in Detroit. From a WR rating perspective, Tate never fell outside the top 30 in his time in Seattle or his first two years in Detroit. He also led NFL receivers in forced missed tackles.

After Johnson’s retirement, the team signed Marvin Jones, but it was clear Tate was now the primary receiving option. Tate’s slot usage has been interesting, with 27 percent of his routes coming from that position in 2016 but a career-high 80 percent this season. His yards per route run has fallen closer to his career average of approximately 1.80 in the last two years and his total routes run falls closer to the top 15 than the top three he saw with Johnson.

One area of difference that is less surprising is a shift in deep targets. In the two years with Johnson, Tate had a combine 20 targets. In 2016, Tate saw 17 deep targets as the team did not have many other options besides Jones. This year, his numbers (five targets) have reverted closer to his time with Johnson than the 2016 season. The low deep-target count is mostly due to the addition of rookie Kenny Golladay, who has seen over a third of his targets go for 20-plus yards.

What can he do?

Since coming to Detroit, Tate has been the model of consistency. He has had between 90 to 99 receptions and four to six touchdowns each year, although his yardage has seen a wider variance with an outlier 2015 where he only managed 813 yards. Tate also has been targeted on 22 percent of his routes and has the target of 22 percent of Matthew Stafford’s total attempts. Neither has varied more than a few percentage points in any season.

This season has been more of the same. Tate is on pace for his third 1,000-yard season with the Lions and has four touchdown receptions at this point. He is also seeing 21 percent of Stafford’s attempts, which accounts for a target on 23 percent of his routes. That latter rate drops when he is in the slot, with a 20 percent target rate on routes in that position. His yards per route run (1.84) was also lower in the slot than when Tate operates outside (2.36).

As for his receptions, Tate is just 11 catches away from that fourth consecutive season surpassing 90. With three games left and a playoff push for the team, Tate’s 6.1 catch-per-game average should carry him across that threshold quite easily. He only has two games with fewer than four catches, the minimum Tate needs to average in order to reach 90. This is a strong bet to take.

Confidence Level: 90%

What does this mean for fantasy?

Tate is a PPR receiver with finishes of 11th, 23rd, and 17th in his three full seasons with the Lions. This season, Tate is 11th in the PPR scoring with Jones just one point behind. Interestingly, Tate is sixth in PPR fantasy points per snap, ahead of receivers like Michael Thomas and Tyreek Hill. Tate’s total fantasy points drop to 17th in standard scoring, a fair difference but still quite usable.

The Lions clearly have focused on the passing game, using a collection of flawed running backs to complement the offense. While Golladay is talented, the Lions have kept him as a one-trick pony in his rookie season. Jones’ contract also has an out clause after next season, while Tate has one after this year. The best-case scenario for Tate is to remain with the Lions for another year. The team remains pass-focused and Tate should command the primary share of targets. Expect at least one more year of starting fantasy value.