Fantasy Football: Examining star players who underperformed in 2023

• Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp: He will have a bounce-back season in 2024. 

• Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley: His significantly improved offensive environment bodes positively for his 2024 fantasy football prospects.

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Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes

Season-to-season volatility is a routine fantasy football occurrence, though dips in play can sometimes signal a permanent decrease in ability. Both outcomes frequently result in decreased average draft positions (ADP) the following season, so identifying a potential return to form gives savvy fantasy managers a significant advantage over skittish opponents. The article below examines three NFL star players who underperformed as fantasy football assets in both half-point-per-reception (half-PPR) and PPR scoring formats in 2023 and explains why a return to stardom in 2024 is expected.

WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp finished as the WR25 in both half-PPR and PPR per-game scoring in Weeks 1-17 last year, fighting through poor health, volatile quarterback play, tough opposition and stiff target competition. The frustrating results have expectations for Kupp entering his age-31 season and his 4.06, WR22 half-PPR ADP and 4.10, WR22 PPR ADP now present significant buy-low opportunities. Kupp’s 71.9 PFF offense grade ranks 37th among 64 NFL wide receivers with at least 630 offensive snaps.

Kupp spent Los Angeles’ first four games on injured reserve after suffering a Grade 2 hamstring strain on August 1st. The training staff smartly gave him ample time to rehabilitate and execute the required ramp-up period before returning. His Week 5 debut yielded eight receptions and 118 yards on 13 targets. He followed up the strong showing with an even better fantasy football outing in Week 6, catching seven-of-nine targets for 148 yards and one touchdown.

Though the team’s Week 10 bye was out of Kupp’s control, his fifth absence in 10 weeks surely compounded fantasy manager frustrations. Making matters worse, disaster struck the following week when Kupp suffered a low (inversion) ankle sprain, resulting in one catch on one target for 11 receiving yards. Per Doctor of Physical Therapy (DPT) Adam Hutchison’s injury report, wide receivers average 1.9 games missed due to low/inversion ankle sprains, but Kupp played through the pain, suiting up in Week 12. Head coach Sean McVay was forced to alter Kupp’s deployment for the rest of the season though; after averaging an 11.4-yard average depth of target (aDot) in Weeks 5-to-10, Kupp was reduced to a 6.4-yard mark in Weeks 12-to-Super Bowl LVIII. 

Kupp was also affected by injuries suffered by Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford, who suffered an inguinal hip sprain in Week 4 and a throwing-hand, ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) thumb injury in Week 8. Stafford played through the former but was rested in Week 9 due to the latter. Stafford’s 86.0 PFF passing grade ranks fourth among 31 NFL quarterbacks with at least 500 offensive snaps. 

Kupp was forced to catch passes from backup quarterback Brett Rypien against the Dallas Cowboys’ and Green Bay Packers’ secondaries, whose respective 76.0 PFF coverage grade and 75.9 PFF coverage grade rank 12th and 13th among NFL secondaries. Rypien earned a 48.0 PFF passing grade for his efforts during that span. 

Kupp delivered three top-five finishes, one WR12 finish and another top-24 finish last year despite the difficult circumstances. 

Kupp’s 2023 receiving data among 64 NFL wide receivers with at least 415 receiving snaps:

Kupp also fought for targets against 2023 breakout rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua, whose 89.3 PFF receiving grade ranks ninth among qualifying NFL wide receivers. Among regular season NFL wide receivers, Nacua ranks eighth or better in targets (153), receptions (105) and receiving yards (1,486).

Kupp is due for a bounce-back season in 2024.

WR Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson was expected to leap into the NFL’s elite wide receiver tier after a promising 2022 rookie campaign. His 2023 hopes were halted when newly acquired quarterback Aaron Rodgers suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon rupture after just four Week 1 snaps. Wilson finished as the half-PPR WR30 (161.3 points) and the PPR WR23 (207.8 points), producing just one WR1 weekly finish in each format, toiling in the league’s worst passing offense. Improved quarterback play and a revamped offensive line, coupled with Wilson’s natural third-year development make him a strong bet to return value on his half-PPR 2.02, WR8 and PPR 1.11, WR8 ADPs. His 73.5 PFF receiving grade ranks among 64 NFL wide receivers with at least 415 receiving snaps. 

Wilson valiantly fought for every touch and yard he tallied last year, totaling the 14th-best target rate (24.2%) among 64 NFL wide receivers with at least 415 receiving snaps, despite receiving double coverage on 169 receiving snaps last year, the third-most among NFL wide receivers. Among 31 NFL wide receivers with at least 120 double-coverage snaps, Wilson ranks or ties for eighth across the board in target rate (22.2%), deep-target rate (33.3%) and slot-target rate (8.6%). 

Standing six feet tall with a 192-pound frame, the wiry Wilson tied for the eighth-most missed tackles forced (19) among 64 NFL wide receivers with at least 415 receiving snaps, doing so at the position’s ninth-best rate (0.2). 

New York backup quarterbacks Zach Wilson (57.2 PFF passing grade), Trevor Siemian (37.4 PFF passing grade) and Tim Boyle (61.2 PFF passing grade) all played more than 120 snaps in Wilson’s 2023 campaign. The unit as a whole earned a 50.3 PFF passing grade while producing -0.248 expected points added (EPA) per play and a 35.8% positive EPA rate, ranking 30th, 32nd and 32nd, respectively, among NFL quarterbacks corps. The group’s 2.5% big-time-throw rate, 5.6 yards per passing attempt and 59.3% completion rate all rank 31st.

Rodgers earned a 75.9 PFF passing grade in his last full season as a starter in 2022. He is backed up by free agent signee, quarterback Tyrod Taylor, whose 73.4 PFF passing grade ranks 20th among 39 NFL quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks in 2022.

New York general manager Joe Douglas overhauled the offensive line after it produced a 30th-ranked 49.0 PFF pass-blocking grade, ranked among NFL offensive lines. New starters include an elite tackle tandem in left tackle Tyron Smith (89.3 PFF pass-blocking grade) and right tackle Morgan Moses (77.0 PFF pass-blocking grade), who rank first and 20th, respectively, in PFF pass-blocking grades among 64 NFL tackles with at least 575 offensive snaps. New left guard John Simpson (59.2 PFF pass-blocking grade) is perhaps a lateral move from former left guard Laken Tomlinson (60.6 PFF pass-blocking grade), though Simpson at least provides quasi-continuity after playing as Moses’ Baltimore Ravens teammate in 2023.

Wilson’s 2023 season was a fantasy football letdown but it can be viewed as a promising developmental step as he enters a vastly improved 2024 environment. He can be safely drafted as a WR1 at the Rounds 1-2 turn.

RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles general manager signed former New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley to a three-year, $37.75 million contract this offseason, signaling featured usage as the team’s high-volume No. 1 running back. The deal follows Barkley’s injury-shortened 2023 campaign that yielded back-end RB1 per-game fantasy scoring results in both half-PPR and PPR formats. Barkley managed the feat despite being stuck in New York’s dismal offense, playing behind the team’s 32nd-ranked offensive line (44.6 PFF offense grade), ranked among NFL offensive lines. Barkley delivered a successful 2023 campaign in dire circumstances and should return mid-to-high RB1 value in 2024. His 2.01, RB6 half-PPR ADP and 1.12, RB4 PPR ADP may look foolishly low by season’s end. Barkley’s 70.7 PFF offense grade ranks 21st among 31 NFL running backs with at least 500 offensive snaps.

Barkley’s Week 2 high-ankle sprain sidelined him in Weeks 3-to-5 and he hyperextended his elbow in his second game back. Despite the injuries, the then-26-year-old still delivered half-PPR RB1 results in seven-of-fourteen games and PPR RB1 results in six. He finished as the Week 11 overall RB1 in both formats while adding a half-PPR overall RB1 in Week 14.

Barkley was forced to create on his own thanks to the offensive line’s abysmal blocking; 74.7% of his 962 rushing yards came after contact, the 11th-most among 34 NFL running backs with at least 175 rushing attempts. His 10.5% explosive run-play rate and 2.9 yards after contact per rushing attempt rank and tie for 14th, respectively. 

Barkley was the only Giants offensive player to surpass 800 yards from scrimmage last year and quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a season-ending Week 5 ACL tear, making Barkley the opposing defense’s focal point. Despite the defensive game-planning, Barkley still converted 40.0% of his green zone rushing attempts, tying for sixth-best among 29 NFL running backs with at least 15 such attempts. Jones’ 54.4 PFF passing grade ranks 54th among 38 NFL quarterbacks with at least 220 dropbacks. 

He remains an elite route runner and target-earner, ranking No. 1 overall in aDot (2.3) among 34 NFL running backs with at least 215 receiving snaps. He ranks 13th in target rate (18.9%), eighth in slot-target rate (3.6%) and No. 1 overall in deep-target rate (6.9%). 

Barkley jumps from a New York offense ranking bottom four in EPA per play (-0.174) and positive EPA rate (37.5%) to a Philadelphia offense ranking ninth in both categories (0.029 and 44.8%, respectively). 

The Philadelphia offensive line’s 80.0 PFF offense grade ranks second among NFL offensive lines. Although the unit lost stalwart center Jason Kelce to retirement, his mentee guard Cam Jurgens is a capable replacement. Kelce’s 84.3 PFF run-blocking grade ranks fourth among 32 NFL centers with at least 600 offensive snaps and Jurgens’ 64.8 PFF run-blocking grade ranks 20th among 64 NFL guards with at least 530 offensive snaps

Barkley had a stunningly strong 2023 despite subpar circumstances. He should routinely break off explosive plays while efficiently converting green zone rushing attempts, running behind Philadelphia’s elite offensive line in 2024.