Erickson: Best Early Week 18 Player Props

Season-long fantasy football may be over, but the fun doesn’t have to end with DFS and player props readily available.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE PFF TOOLS:

Rankings & Projections | WR/CB Matchup Chart | NFL & NCAA Betting Dashboards | NFL Player Props tool | NFL & NCAA Power Rankings

I’ve been successful playing on PrizePricks throughout the 2021 season. Now, I am shifting toward covering my favorite weekly props from Week 18 up until the Super Bowl, and there will be a special emphasis on hitting inefficient lines early in the week. 

That’s where an edge can be found, and it’s our job as bettors to hammer the bad lines for as much plus expected value as possible.

For those making the leap from fantasy football to player props, PrizePicks is DFS made easy: Choose two or more players from the board and whether they go OVER or UNDER their projected fantasy score or single stat. The payout increases with each additional leg, which is similar to a parlay bet.

PFF has partnered with PrizePicks! Use code PFF and deposit $20 for a FREE PFF EDGE subscription.

JOSH ALLEN OVER 250.5 PASSING YARDS, DEVIN SINGLETARY OVER 59.5 RUSHING YARDS

Allen let me down last week, finishing well under his 255.5 passing yards prop. I shall not be dissuaded by recency bias, though, as the Buffalo Bills take on the New York Jets this week. After all, the AFC East division crown is up for grabs. 

The Jets have allowed over 280 passing yards to the last two quarterbacks they have faced — one being Trevor Lawrence — and Allen ripped them for 366 passing yards back in Week 10.

New York’s defense ranks dead last in yards per attempt since Week 7, making the weather in Buffalo the only thing that can stop Allen from hitting this over. The snowy conditions in Buffalo contributed to Allen finishing under his projection in Week 17, so there is some credence to waiting to see how the weather shakes out before hammering the over on Allen.

However, there should be no hesitation to pound the over on Singletary’s 59.5 rushing yards prop. That number won’t stay down for too long, as the Jets rank first in rushing attempts and fourth in rushing yards allowed to running backs this season.

Singletary has become a certified bellcow over the last four weeks, as he is averaging over 15 carries per game at 4.7 yards per attempt, putting his projected rushing yardage well above 59.5 rushing yards. 

DEVONTA SMITH UNDER 53.5 RECEIVING YARDS

The Dallas Cowboys have said all the right things when it comes to playing their starters on Saturday night while the Philadelphia Eagles have been non-committal. They don’t have much to play for, but the overall ambiguity of the situation calls for betting the under on Smith's receiving yardage prop.

The rookie has surpassed 53.5 receiving yards just twice in his last five games due to the extreme run-heavy nature of the Eagles offense. Also, consider the matchup against Dallas, whose secondary held Smith to just three catches for 28 yards back in Week 3.

Considering all the factors that can go wrong for Smith — run-heavy offense, bad matchup, potential for limited snap share — bet the under on his receiving yardage prop now before Nick Sirianni inevitably announces the Eagles will only play their starters for a few series in a relatively meaningless game for playoff seeding. 

Related content for you:

NFL Week 18 Odds and Best Bets via Eric Eager and George Chahrouri

Correlate betting the under on Smith's receiving yardage prop by betting the under on Jalen Hurts’ 195.5 passing yards and Ezekiel Elliott’s 44.5 rushing yards props. 

Elliott has averaged just nine carries in his last two games, finishing with just 37 rushing yards and 16 rushing yards in each game. He’s cleared 44.5 rushing yards three times in his last five games but only by one yard on two separate occasions.

TYREEK HILL OVER 59.5 RECEIVING YARDS, PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 265.5 PASSING YARDS

Starting cornerbacks Pat Surtain II and Ronald Darby have been ruled out for Chiefs-Broncos leaving Denver's secondary extremely thin. Coming off a 10-target game, Tyreek Hill should easily surpass this extremely low line. PFF’s fantasy projections have him pegged for 85 receiving yards. 

Correlate Hill with an over on Mahomes’ passing yards prop. The Chiefs quarterback has gone over his forecasted total in seven of the nine games Hill has at least 60 receiving yards. 

NOAH FANT UNDER 19.5 RECEIVING YARDS (FIRST HALF), DREW LOCK UNDER 95.5 PASSING YARDS (FIRST HALF)

Garbage time can’t save Noah Fant and Drew Lock in the first half. 84% of Noah Fant’s receiving yards the past two weeks have come in the second half. Fade him with the return of Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy in Week 18.

LAQUON TREADWELL OVER 51.5 RECEIVING YARDS, MARVIN JONES JR. UNDER 40.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Treadwell continues to produce no matter the circumstances. The former first-round pick has accumulated at least 53 receiving yards and four receptions in every game since Week 12. His 381 receiving yards over that span lead the Jacksonville Jaguars by a wide margin (Marvin Jones, 258) and rank 13th in the NFL.

The Indianapolis Colts have a stingy defense against WRs — sixth-fewest receiving yards per game — but Treadwell’s consistent rapport with Trevor Lawrence should enable him to the hit the over on his receiving yardage prop. The same can’t be said for Jones, who has been extremely volatile. He has over 70 receiving yards in two of his last five games, but he has fewer than 15 in two as well. 

With boom-or-bust wide receivers like Jones, the sharp bet is always the under. Not to mention, Jones was held to just two catches for 35 yards the last time he played the Colts. 

Parlay the Jags WRs with over bets on Michael Pittman Jr.'s props. Pittman owns the league’s third highest-target share over the last four weeks (32%). 

For under parlays, I’d look at Carson Wentz‘s 198.5 passing yards prop — a number he has surpassed just twice in his last five starts.