Dynasty leaguers now have post-rookie draft assessments and preseason games to mull over, but there’s not much actual news to report. Because of that, a player's ADP can fluctuate wildly based on a solitary snippet of information from a beat reporter. The more experienced dynasty players will use this to their advantage. They’ll use the months, or even years, of quantifiable data and information when it comes to evaluating a player, rather than reporting how a player “looked” in camp, which is entirely subjective. With that in mind, let’s see whose values you can take advantage of during the dog days of summer.
(All ADP data is from Fantasy Football Calculator’s dynasty ADP)
Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers (position ADP: 5)
At first blush, Newton’s current ADP in dynasty startups is a little startling. Yes, he nearly led the Panthers to a championship in 2015, but Newton’s 2016 was the season from hell. He failed to throw for 20 touchdowns for the third time in his career and, perhaps more disconcerting, rushed for career lows with 359 yards and five rushing touchdowns. Newton’s value has been a roller coaster, going from the mid-QB2 range in 2014, to fantasy’s top quarterback in 2015, and back to QB2 range again. So what do you do with him?
For context, it’s not like his incredible 2015 was a complete fluke. He’s finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback in four of his six seasons. So expecting a top-five finish isn’t entirely unreasonable. Plus, the Panthers spent a lot of draft capital this year on weapons that are expected to provide Newton with a much better supporting cast. Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel, Carolina’s first two draft picks, will offer Newton more in the way of receiving weapons and are able to make more plays than the flat-footed Jonathan Stewart and Kelvin Benjamin.
But while Newton’s value should only be helped by those additions, it will primarily hinge on his running ability. The five rushing touchdowns he had in 2016 tied a career low, while the 359 rushing yards were exactly 200 under his previous low. If he can’t be as effective as a runner, his rushing stats will continue to decrease his overall fantasy value and defenses will play to the pass much more.
Cam’s only 28 and should be able to use his legs for at least a few more years. But there’s no time to waste and he needs to use their powers while he still can. Plus, his 35 passing touchdowns during that magical 2015 season was 10 more than his previous career-high and shouldn’t be counted on to happen again.
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