Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Risks and rewards for starting WR-WR-WR

• Bank on consistency and safety with a WR-heavy approach: We dive into the potential upside for this build, with more wide receivers to choose from in the first three rounds.

• Rounds 1-3 offer excellent options at WR: With about 18 wide receivers in the first three rounds to choose from, there are some exciting options to stack the position early.

• Dominate your fantasy draft: Subscribe to PFF+ to get full access to PFF’s full suite of fantasy football tools, including the fantasy mock draft simulator, live draft assistant, fantasy rankings, cheat sheets and more! Click here to subscribe!

Estimated Reading Time: 13 minutes

I recently covered the RB-RB-RB draft strategy, looking at the high-upside potential of a running back-heavy build. Now we turn our attention to the opposite end of the spectrum and focus on the outlook for a wide receiver-heavy build.

The wide receiver-heavy approach offers a bit more safety, in that there are a lot more options to choose from early on. There may not be the top-five upside with all of these wide receivers, especially those who have strong target competition, which is part of the downside, but hitting on high-end consistency from multiple players can help make up for that.

While having a set strategy heading into a draft can help a fantasy football manager feel prepared, it’s important to be ready to pivot from the original game plan if things don’t go as planned, or if there’s significant value that falls to you.

PPR SCORING TOP FINISHERS BY POSITION SINCE 2014

TOP:	3	5	10	25	50	75	100	150
RB	27%	26%	25%	18%	21%	24%	26%	27%
WR	17%	16%	23%	26%	34%	37%	39%	40%
TE	0%	0%	0%	2%	5%	6%	7%	12%

0.5 PPR SCORING TOP FINISHERS BY POSITION SINCE 2014

TOP:	3	5	10	25	50	75	100	150
RB	13%	16%	15%	18%	24%	27%	27%	29%
WR	0%	2%	6%	14%	25%	33%	37%	39%
TE	0%	0%	0%	1%	3%	5%	6%	11%

NON-PPR SCORING TOP FINISHERS BY POSITION SINCE 2014

TOP:	3	5	10	25	50	75	100	150
RB	7%	8%	8%	17%	28%	31%	31%	31%
WR	0%	0%	0%	5%	18%	27%	33%	37%
TE	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%	3%	5%	9%

As highlighted in the charts above, the wide receiver position doesn’t quite have the overall finish upside as the running backs, but in full-PPR formats, the potential to finish among the top 25 becomes much greater and a top-10 finish is almost as likely. There are plenty of options to choose from through the first three rounds of drafts to hit on these top 10-25 wide receivers, but finding the right ones isn’t always as easy.

Like the running back position, this receiver-heavy approach carries some risk. You're not only passing on the top-five or potential top-three upside of the running back position, but because of the number of options available, it’s possible for your league-mates to devise a similar strategy and have as much or more success in doing so. By identifying the strengths and weaknesses of the wide receivers in these early rounds, this article will hopefully help your odds of hitting on the correct trio.

This article will focus on PPR scoring, since that is where the ADP is pulled from on Sleeper.

Draft strategy context:

League size: 12 teams
Scoring settings are full PPR
ADP referenced is from Sleeper

WR archetypes to target

The chart below contains the top five PPR WR finishers over the past five seasons and the key metrics they hit. This helps identify the criteria needed for each of the receivers going in Rounds 2 and 3 to hit big.

Key metrics from past fantasy wide receivers who finished inside the top five since 2019

Top-5 WRs (since 2019)	Target Rate	Yards per Route Run	Receiving Grade	Receiving Grade vs. Man	Red-Zone Target Tate
Average	27.4%	2.72	89.4	85.6	25.5%

Round 1

There are typically seven wide receivers going in the first round of drafts this season, giving fantasy managers plenty of opportunity to get the wide receiver-heavy approach off to a strong start. CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown and Garrett Wilson are strong options who check all the right boxes for the high-end fantasy production we’ll be looking for, as highlighted below.

First-round WR	Target Rate	Yards per Route Run	Receiving Grade	Receiving Grade vs. Man	Red-Zone Target Tate
CeeDee Lamb	28.5%	2.78	91.4	94.1	26.7%
Tyreek Hill	35.5%	3.82	94.0	87.2	35.7%
Justin Jefferson	26.6%	2.91	91.2	90.2	18.0%
Ja’Marr Chase	23.5%	2.02	86.7	81.4	25.6%
Amon-Ra St. Brown	27.4%	2.63	90.7	76.9	30.4%
A.J. Brown	26.3%	2.52	90.4	90.4	29.0%
Garrett Wilson	24.2%	1.55	73.5	69.5	25.0%

Heading into the second and third rounds, we can look to identify which wide receivers meet most of the criteria to optimize the WR-WR-WR draft strategy to make it worth passing on other key positions along the way. No matter which position you’re drafting from, there are strong options available at each point in the first round for anyone wanting to attack the wide receiver position early and often.

Round 2

Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals

Sleeper ADP: 15.4

Harrison’s 2023 numbers through 12 college games

2023 Numbers	Target Rate	Yards per Route Run	Receiving Grade	Receiving Grade vs. Man	Red-Zone Target Rate
Totals	32.4%	3.44	89.6	82.6	42.6%

The fourth-overall pick in this year’s draft is set to lead the Cardinals in receiving production this season, and considering his talent and profile coming out of college, he’s being drafted accordingly.

150-plus targets is well within the realm of possibilities for Harrison, and with strong quarterback play from Kyler Murray to help make the most of those targets, he potentially checks all the needed boxes for that top-five upside we’re looking for from the position.

At the top of the second round, pairing him with either A.J. Brown or Garrett Wilson makes for a very attractive duo to start through the first two rounds.

Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders

Sleeper ADP: 17.0

Davante Adams’ 2023 numbers through 17 games

2023 Numbers	Target Rate	Yards per Route Run	Receiving Grade	Receiving Grade vs. Man	Red-Zone Target Rate
Totals	29.4%	1.97	80.0	76.0	37.0%

Adams has been arguably the best target-earner in football over the past few years, finishing in the top 12 for fantasy at his position in five of the past six seasons, including last year.

The concern about Adams getting older and the Raiders' less-than-ideal passing offense with Gardner Minshew at quarterback makes it risky to draft him early, but he still should be the clear leader in receiving production for this team in 2024.

Minshew was able to support the PPR WR14 Michael Pittman last season, and as long as Adams is healthy, he should offer a similar, if not better, outcome this season.

Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

Sleeper ADP: 17.3

Puka Nacua’s 2023 numbers through 17 games

2023 Numbers	Target Rate	Yards per Route Run	Receiving Grade	Receiving Grade vs. Man	Red-Zone Target Rate
Totals	26.7%	2.59	85.1	74.9	18.8%

Nacua broke a lot of rookie receiving records in 2023 to ultimately finish as the PPR WR4.

Heading into Year 2, there’s some expected regression. Cooper Kupp is healthy, a natural decline in overall efficiency is likely and Nacua is currently dealing with a knee injury.

However, reports are that Nacua will be ready for Week 1, and even if he doesn’t replicate his rookie season, his stable metrics offer strong reasons to believe he can outperform his current value of WR10, which makes him a perfect WR2 target for this type of build.

Drake London, Atlanta Falcons

Sleeper ADP: 17.3

Drake London’s 2023 numbers through 16 games

2023 Numbers	Target Rate	Yards per Route Run	Receiving Grade	Receiving Grade vs. Man	Red-Zone Target Rate
Totals	21.9%	1.87	78.9	72.7	27.1%

London’s ADP is based on a significant projection that a Year 3 breakout is coming now that the Falcons have a legitimate starting quarterback and offense suited to help him come through on that potential as a former top-10 draft pick.

He doesn’t offer the strong receiving metrics as some of the other wide receivers going in this range, which makes him riskier as a more quarterback-dependent option, not unlike Garrett Wilson in the first round.

Luckily, being able to pair him with much safer options from this ADP range, like Amon-Ra St. Brown or Ja’Marr Chase (assuming Week 1 availability), allows for the high-upside swing here in Round 2.

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints

Sleeper ADP: 21.8

Chris Olave’s 2023 numbers through 16 games

2023 Numbers	Target Rate	Yards per Route Run	Receiving Grade	Receiving Grade vs. Man	Red-Zone Target Rate
Totals	25.5%	2.07	82.9	89.1	17.1%

Olave, much like Garrett Wilson and Drake London going ahead of him, is primed for his best season yet.

Olave’s strong metrics across the board are a good indicator for continued growth in the peak of his career, and he arguably has darkhorse WR1 potential, as long as Derek Carr can allow him to flourish.

Outside of elite quarterback play, Olave checks all the boxes we’re looking for in this round to help us get an ideal start to our wide receiver-heavy build.

Round 3

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

Sleeper ADP: 26.3

Brandon Aiyuk’s 2023 numbers through 16 games

2023 Numbers	Target Rate	Yards per Route Run	Receiving Grade	Receiving Grade vs. Man	Red-Zone Target Rate
Totals	22.7%	3.01	92.3	90.8	13.3%

There are a lot of unanswered questions about Aiyuk’s status heading into the season, as he has demanded a trade and is holding out for a new contract, which creates significant risk in relying on him as a key part of our build.

However, the potential likely outweighs the risk when pairing him with two other high-end options at the position.

Aiyuk has finished as a top-15 PPR wide receiver in each of the past two seasons, is still in his prime and, if he starts the year by remaining on the elite offense of the 49ers, he is potentially a steal in the third round.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sleeper ADP: 29.0

Mike Evans’ 2023 numbers through 17 games

2023 Numbers	Target Rate	Yards per Route Run	Receiving Grade	Receiving Grade vs. Man	Red-Zone Target Rate
Totals	23.5%	2.32	83.2	86.9	23.9%

Reliability is the name of Mike Evans’ game. He has finished in the top 12 at his position in three of the past four years, including as high as WR7 last year, and no worse than WR17 (in 2022 when he missed two games).

The Evans and Baker Mayfield connection worked out very well last season, with Evans tying for a league-leading 13 receiving touchdowns and delivering more than 1,000 receiving yards for the 10th straight season.

For those fantasy managers drafting from the middle range of picks (5-8) and potentially taking one of the riskier second-rounders (Drake London, Davante Adams, Puka Nacua), adding Evans to the fold for reliability and safety makes for a nice balance in this build.

Nico Collins, Houston Texans

Sleeper ADP: 30.1

Nico Collins’ 2023 numbers through 15 games

2023 Numbers	Target Rate	Yards per Route Run	Receiving Grade	Receiving Grade vs. Man	Red-Zone Target Rate
Totals	26.0%	3.10	90.6	91.6	29.6%

Collins delivered a massive breakout season in 2023 with new quarterback C.J. Stroud under center, which resulted in a WR18 finish through the fantasy year (Weeks 1-17), and a massive Week 18 helped get him to WR12 in PPR formats for the full year.

Collins has more target competition this season with Stefon Diggs joining the team and a healthy Tank Dell back in the lineup after he missed nearly seven full games last season due to injury.

Collins' rapport with Stroud and his encouraging metrics from last season keep him as the favorite to lead the team in receiving production this season, just with the chance that it’s slightly lighter than in 2023.

Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans

Sleeper ADP: 31.7

Stefon Diggs’ 2023 numbers through 17 games

2023 Numbers	Target Rate	Yards per Route Run	Receiving Grade	Receiving Grade vs. Man	Red-Zone Target Rate
Totals	26.8%	1.99	81.1	79.2	18.6%

Right after Collins in ADP is his teammate Diggs, who is coming off a relatively down year compared to his career norm in Buffalo.

Diggs posted the lowest receiving grade (79.0), fewest receiving yards (1,256), fewest receiving touchdowns (eight) and worst PPR finish (WR9) since he joined the Bills in 2020, which could be a concerning trend now that he’s heading to a new team with much more target competition.

The positive of adding Diggs is that if he were to bounce back in a new system — expected to be a high-end offense — then it’s clear that he still has those top-12 wide receiver markers to his game we can rely on, just with more risk than others in this range.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

Sleeper ADP: 33.3

Deebo Samuel’s 2023 numbers through 15 games

2023 Numbers	Target Rate	Yards per Route Run	Receiving Grade	Receiving Grade vs. Man	Red-Zone Target Rate
Totals	22.6%	2.32	84.2	62.3	24.3%

Samuel finished as a top-15 wide receiver last season, despite missing two games and dealing with the elite competition in the 49ers' offense.

Helping his case every year is his usage out of the backfield, which has accounted for no less than 22% of his actual fantasy production in each of the past three seasons, to go along with a minimum of 85 targets every year.

Samuel’s unique usage gives him elite upside in the third round, and landing him as WR3 for this build only increases the odds of this strategy working out.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

Sleeper ADP: 35.0

Jaylen Waddle’s 2023 numbers through 14 games

2023 Numbers	Target Rate	Yards per Route Run	Receiving Grade	Receiving Grade vs. Man	Red-Zone Target Rate
Totals	27.0%	2.63	90.9	72.8	14.3%

For fantasy managers targeting the wide receiver-heavy build from the later portion of the first round, missing out on Tyreek Hill provides a very good consolation prize in his teammate Jaylen Waddle.

Waddle’s receiving metrics are some of the best we’ll find in the third round of drafts, but because he dealt with injuries last season and missed time, it’s helped push his ADP down to a much more desirable price tag.

Waddle checks nearly every box necessary for this build to pay off with upside, especially if his usage in the red zone increases while he absorbs even slightly more of Hill’s receiving work this season.

DJ Moore, Chicago Bears

Sleeper ADP: 36.8

DJ Moore’s 2023 numbers through 17 games

2023 Numbers	Target Rate	Yards per Route Run	Receiving Grade	Receiving Grade vs. Man	Red-Zone Target Rate
Totals	22.3%	2.31	89.5	91.2	15.4%

Moore led the Bears' receiving corps in 2023, resulting in a PPR WR6 finish for the year, despite Justin Fields being at quarterback and the team not having a very pass-heavy offense.

Caleb Williams figures to bring out more of his weapons' upside in the passing game, including Moore.

The issue is that there are a lot more of those weapons to share looks with this season, as the team traded for Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze with a top-10 pick.

Moore can still lead this unit in receiving production with the talent to deliver a top-12 finish, and getting him as our WR3 should result in the high-end steady production we’re looking for from all three of our early wide receivers.

Navigating the rest of the draft

Continuing to use Sleeper’s average draft positions, we can get a better idea of how these strategies play out using the early, middle and late picks.