• Many wide receiver options to end Round 2: There are a number of wide receivers with top-five potential who will fall to the end of the second round, including Davante Adams.
• It’s not too early to pick a quarterback in Round 3: Round 2 quarterbacks were league-winners last year, and Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts fit that description again. Only this year, they can be drafted a round later.
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Estimated reading time: 12 minutes
The Perfect Draft series integrates current ADPs from both expert and casual drafts to identify the best available picks at each selection. This draft strategy is tailored for 10-team PPR leagues, specifically for those picking first, second or third.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 1
Round 1, Picks 1-3: Draft a wide receiver or Christian McCaffrey
Anyone with the first overall pick should take McCaffrey with little hesitation. The Niners back scored over 100 more PPR points than any other running back last season and has the perfect combination of talent, opportunity and situation. Anyone missing out needs to pivot to a wide receiver. No quarterback or tight end is worth a first-round pick this year, and every other running back is more than a gamble.
Top Target: Christian McCaffrey (Player Profile)
McCaffrey should be the 1.01 because he is far ahead of his competition. He has the right combination of volume and efficiency in both the run and pass games, as well as continuity with everyone on the 49ers' offense.
As is the case for any player, there is risk, but given how far apart McCaffrey is from all other running backs, even worse production could still lead to an RB1 season. He was relied on in the run game more than in the past couple of seasons, and he matched the increased volume with increased efficiency. He was among the top running backs in the run game in every volume and efficiency metric. On perfectly blocked plays, he has averaged an absurd 9.0 yards per carry over the past three seasons.
Possible Targets: CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson
Round 2, Picks 18-20: Draft a quarterback or wide receiver
At this stage, wide receiver depth is strong, but securing a quarterback with one of these picks is crucial. If one isn't selected now, there's a risk of missing out on the top four quarterbacks, and none would offer good value at the next turn. While it might be slightly earlier than their ADP, it's worth the reach since there's plenty of value to be found at other positions in later rounds.
I lean toward picking a wide receiver first and then quarterback because it’s more likely Josh Allen will fall than Davante Adams.
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