Winning a DFS tournament while competing in a field of 100,000 entrants is an outrageous task. The best way to tilt the odds in your favor is to play into the chaos of the NFL week. Profit disproportionately when things don’t go as planned. Here are three ways to build that kind of leverage into your lineups for Week 4.
Stop paying for committee backs
Four running backs came in over 15% ownership in the Fantasy Football Millionaire contest on DraftKings last week. Only one of them (Miles Sanders) saw at least half of his team’s backfield carries and targets. Johnathan Taylor caught his only target, while Nyheim Hines got five looks through the air.
Kenyan Drake has shouldered 81.8% of the backfield carries for Arizona but saw only one target in Week 3. Jerick McKinnon saw exactly half of his team’s running back carries (14) and fell just shy of a 50% running back target share (4 of 9 looks in the passing game). McKinnon’s $4,900 price tag was fine, but his popularity is another way that his backers had to “pay” for him.
Playing popular running backs isn’t an immediate losing proposition. However, betting on chalky backs who can’t be projected to dominate their backfield is. Either pay up for the certainty of an elite back or pay down for low-owned, unknown situations. There are a handful of good ones this week.
Ezekiel Elliott has 58 carries and 23 targets compared to Tony Pollard’s totals of four and five, respectively. He also leads the league in expected rushing touchdowns at 4.5 but has only three rushing scores. The Cowboys are favored by 4.5 points at home to Browns this week. Zeke should have no problem feasting as one of the league’s true three-down backs.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.