I love Week 16 as a DFS player. It’s the point in the season where we have the most data we’ll ever have and is typically our last week before we see some teams put it in neutral in Week 17 and coast to the finish line. We can tell already that a select few teams have already mailed it in, but there’s also several teams with extra incentive with the playoffs within reach. Here’s how I’m approaching GPPs this week on DraftKings’ main slate:
(For the FanDuel cash game guide, click here)
Quarterback
I think there’s a legitimate case to be made for six to 10 quarterbacks this week. I’ll try to hit on my favorite quarterback options here for those that are interested in either single entry or mass multi-entry.
This duel between the Seahawks and Cowboys has piqued my interest as one to build my core around this week. Both teams enter this matchup with 8-6 records and will be vying for one of the final Wild Card playoff spots. I’m hoping recency bias hits drafters this week after Russell Wilson’s ($7,000) Week 15 clunker against the Rams and goes a bit lower-owned than he should. This is a game that could be a sneaky shootout in my opinion with both defenses struggling down the stretch. The Cowboys have allowed the seventh-most passing yards and fourth-most passing touchdowns over the last four weeks. In fact, they’ve allowed multiple passing touchdowns to 10-of-14 quarterbacks they’ve faced. Wilson has scored 20-plus DK points in seven of his last nine matchups and has either thrown or run for 33 of the Seahawks’ 34 touchdowns this year. I have no problems with paying up for production this week where there isn’t much value across the board.
Cam Newton ($6,800) will likely be the chalk play at quarterback this week after last week’s 4-TD outing. He draws a very quarterback-friendly matchup against divisional rival Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have allowed the most passing yards and the fifth-most rushing attempts to opposing QBs this season. That latter note is particularly important with Newton coming off a career-high 14 carries last week against Green Bay. Tampa Bay is producing the second-lowest pressure rate (5.1 percent) and the second-lowest sack conversion rate (10 percent) per our OL/DL Matchup chart. Newton should have little difficulty evading the Buc’s woeful pass rush and picking up yardage on the ground with ease.
I typically prefer to target mobile quarterbacks. They provide a higher floor and a second avenue to garnering fantasy points, but I just can’t stop building lineups with Matthew Stafford ($6,200) this week. The Lions remain mathematically still in the hunt for a playoff spot, so I’ve got Stafford on my board as someone worth targeting this week in tournaments. The Lions pass the ball a league-leading 63.3 percent of the time, and I love the matchup for his wideouts against a defense that’s struggling with injuries. Last week saw many LBs and DBs out with injury, and many of them have carried their injury designations into Week 16. Over the last month, Cincinnati has allowed 19.4 DK points to Case Keenum, 21.3 to Mitchell Trubisky, 19.0 to Ben Roethlisberger, and 20.6 to DeShone Kizer. The Bengals have been shredded in back-to-back weeks by the Bears and Vikings, and now take on an eager Lions team looking to secure a win to try and sneak into the playoffs. Stafford enters this matchup with the safety of a 20-ish-point floor and the upside for much more against a team that looks like it has given up on the year.
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