- Key to DFS success: Random combinations of historically similar matchups can identify counterintuitive and lower-cost DFS options with exceeding upside.
- Best relative DFS values: Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins at quarterback, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and James Conner at running back, Allen Lazard and Marquise Brown at wide receiver, Irv Smith and Hayden Hurst at tight end, and the Seattle Seahawks and Miami Dolphins at defense are the best values relative to their DFS price for Week 2.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the slate's highest scorer. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.
QUARTERBACKS
| Highest % | Player | Team | Opponent | DK Fpts | DK Salary | FD Fpts | FD Salary |
| 12.1 | Josh Allen | BUF | MIA | 28.4 | 8,200 | 26.4 | 9,000 |
| 10.7 | Matthew Stafford | LA | ARZ | 22.4 | 6,500 | 20.7 | 7,700 |
| 9.8 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | IND | 24.9 | 7,900 | 23.2 | 8,700 |
| 8.7 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | DET | 21.9 | 6,700 | 20.3 | 7,600 |
| 8.1 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | WAS | 24.8 | 7,600 | 23.2 | 8,100 |
| 6.5 | Justin Herbert | LAC | JAX | 25.0 | 7,400 | 23.4 | 8,200 |
| 4.5 | Kyler Murray | ARZ | LA | 21.3 | 7,300 | 20.1 | 7,800 |
| 4.4 | Joe Flacco | NYJ | CIN | 17.8 | 5,300 | 16.5 | 6,800 |
| 4.2 | Jared Goff | DET | MIN | 15.8 | 5,800 | 14.8 | 7,100 |
| 4.2 | Derek Carr | LV | TEN | 18.6 | 5,900 | 17.2 | 7,100 |
| 3.9 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | BUF | 18.8 | 6,100 | 17.5 | 7,300 |
| 3.3 | Joe Burrow | CIN | NYJ | 22.9 | 6,600 | 21.2 | 7,500 |
| 3.3 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | LV | 18.1 | 5,700 | 17.2 | 7,200 |
| 3.2 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | LAC | 18.6 | 5,400 | 17.3 | 7,000 |
| 2.8 | Lamar Jackson | BLT | NE | 22.7 | 8,000 | 21.3 | 8,600 |
| 2.7 | Jameis Winston | NO | CAR | 15.0 | 5,200 | 14.1 | 6,900 |
| 1.7 | Mac Jones | NE | BLT | 19.2 | 5,100 | 17.8 | 6,400 |
| 1.6 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | TB | 20.1 | 6,400 | 18.7 | 7,400 |
| 1.4 | Davis Mills | HST | CHI | 16.7 | 5,000 | 15.5 | 6,400 |
| 1.3 | Marcus Mariota | ATL | SEA | 21.4 | 5,500 | 19.9 | 7,300 |
| 0.9 | Geno Smith | SEA | ATL | 18.7 | 5,000 | 17.5 | 6,300 |
| 0.8 | Baker Mayfield | CAR | NO | 14.4 | 5,200 | 13.5 | 6,600 |
| 0.7 | Matt Ryan | IND | KC | 17.9 | 5,200 | 16.5 | 6,700 |
| 0.5 | Carson Wentz | WAS | PHI | 17.4 | 6,300 | 16.2 | 7,500 |
| 0.4 | Justin Fields | CHI | HST | 17.8 | 5,600 | 16.7 | 7,000 |
| 0.3 | Tom Brady | TB | GB | 22.0 | 6,000 | 20.3 | 7,400 |
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