- Key to DFS success: Random combinations of historically similar matchups can identify counterintuitive and lower-cost DFS options with exceeding upside.
- Best relative DFS values: Tom Brady and Dak Prescott at quarterback, Jeff Wilson at running back, Rashod Bateman at wide receiver, Hayden Hurst at tight end, Tennessee Titans and the at defense are the best values relative to their DFS price for Week 5.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.
QUARTERBACKS
| Highest % | Player | Team | Opponent | DK Fpts | DK Salary | FD Fpts | FD Salary |
| 10.7 | Lamar Jackson | BLT | CLV | 22.7 | 8,000 | 21.4 | 8,800 |
| 10.2 | Justin Herbert | LAC | SEA | 25.5 | 7,200 | 23.9 | 8,100 |
| 9.4 | Joe Burrow | CIN | ATL | 22.9 | 6,900 | 21.4 | 8,300 |
| 8.4 | Dak Prescott | DAL | DET | 20.8 | 6,700 | 19.4 | 7,500 |
| 8.1 | Tom Brady | TB | CAR | 23.5 | 6,300 | 21.8 | 7,400 |
| 7.1 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | SF | 22.1 | 7,800 | 20.7 | 8,500 |
| 5.2 | Geno Smith | SEA | LAC | 20.1 | 5,600 | 18.5 | 6,800 |
| 4.8 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | KC | 17.9 | 5,500 | 16.7 | 7,200 |
| 4.5 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | IND | 18.3 | 5,700 | 17.5 | 6,700 |
| 4.4 | Derek Carr | LV | HST | 20.6 | 5,900 | 19.1 | 7,600 |
| 3.8 | Marcus Mariota | ATL | CIN | 17.8 | 5,500 | 16.5 | 7,100 |
| 3.7 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | NYG | 18.5 | 5,700 | 17.2 | 7,200 |
| 3.2 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | WAS | 20.9 | 6,000 | 19.7 | 7,100 |
| 2.6 | Jared Goff | DET | DAL | 14.4 | 5,800 | 13.5 | 7,300 |
| 2.6 | Davis Mills | HST | LV | 17.4 | 5,000 | 16.1 | 6,300 |
| 2.5 | Taylor Heinicke | WAS | GB | 15.9 | 5,000 | 15.0 | 6,600 |
| 2.5 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | DEN | 15.0 | 5,100 | 14.1 | 6,600 |
| 2.3 | Jacoby Brissett | CLV | BLT | 18.1 | 5,300 | 16.9 | 6,500 |
| 2.2 | Matt Ryan | IND | TEN | 16.7 | 5,400 | 15.5 | 7,300 |
| 1.4 | Daniel Jones | NYG | JAX | 20.1 | 5,100 | 18.9 | 6,900 |
| 1.1 | Russell Wilson | DEN | NYJ | 18.1 | 6,200 | 17.1 | 7,000 |
| 0.6 | P.J. Walker | CAR | TB | 15.8 | 5,000 | 14.5 | 6,200 |
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