- Key to DFS success: Random combinations of historically similar matchups can identify counterintuitive and lower-cost DFS options with exceeding upside.
- Best relative DFS values: Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr at quarterback, Isiah Pacheco and David Montgomery at running back, JuJu Smith-Schuster at wide receiver, Mike Gesicki at tight end and the Tennessee Titans defense are the best values relative to their DFS price for Week 10.
Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.
QUARTERBACKS
| Highest % | Player | Team | Opponent | DK Fpts | DK Salary | FD Fpts | FD Salary |
| 16.1 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | JAX | 25.9 | 7,800 | 25.9 | 7,800 |
| 9.5 | Josh Allen | BUF | MIN | 29.1 | 8,600 | 29.1 | 8,600 |
| 9.1 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | CLV | 20.6 | 6,700 | 20.6 | 6,700 |
| 6.6 | Derek Carr | LV | IND | 19.5 | 5,600 | 19.5 | 5,600 |
| 6.5 | Matthew Stafford | LA | ARZ | 20.9 | 5,600 | 20.9 | 5,600 |
| 6.2 | Jacoby Brissett | CLV | MIA | 18.0 | 5,400 | 18.0 | 5,400 |
| 5.2 | Daniel Jones | NYG | HST | 20.7 | 5,700 | 20.7 | 5,700 |
| 5.1 | Justin Fields | CHI | DET | 18.5 | 6,500 | 18.5 | 6,500 |
| 4.2 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | BUF | 16.9 | 6,000 | 16.9 | 6,000 |
| 4.0 | Kenny Pickett | PIT | NO | 17.3 | 5,100 | 17.3 | 5,100 |
| 3.7 | Sam Ehlinger | IND | LV | 17.2 | 5,000 | 17.2 | 5,000 |
| 3.6 | Davis Mills | HST | NYG | 17.3 | 5,100 | 17.3 | 5,100 |
| 3.3 | Jared Goff | DET | CHI | 15.6 | 5,500 | 15.6 | 5,500 |
| 3.2 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | DAL | 19.4 | 5,800 | 19.4 | 5,800 |
| 3.2 | Dak Prescott | DAL | GB | 18.5 | 6,600 | 18.5 | 6,600 |
| 3.1 | Kyler Murray | ARZ | LA | 20.3 | 7,200 | 20.3 | 7,200 |
| 3.0 | Russell Wilson | DEN | TEN | 17.1 | 5,900 | 17.1 | 5,900 |
| 2.6 | Malik Willis | TEN | DEN | 15.3 | 5,000 | 15.3 | 5,000 |
| 1.7 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | KC | 16.6 | 5,400 | 16.6 | 5,400 |
| 1.6 | Andy Dalton | NO | PIT | 16.7 | 5,500 | 16.7 | 5,500 |
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