• Malik Nabers stands out: Nabers tops the list with the highest PWOPR and actual WOPR in the NFL over the past three weeks. He faces a favorable matchup against the Panthers, who rank last in PFF’s team-based pass-rush grade. This should give Daniel Jones more time to connect with Nabers.
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Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, bettors, and analysts often rely on a wide array of statistics and models to gain a competitive edge. These range from basic box score stats to advanced metrics available in PFF's Premium Stats 2.0 and models like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low model and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is always room for new insights and analyses to help bettors and fantasy managers refine their strategies. That’s why I have developed a new metric that offers several advantages over WOPR. Click here for an in-depth explanation of the model, my process and its advantages.
The Week 9 “route-based heroes” model delivered more impressive results.
- WR6 Davante Adams: 22.1 PPR FP — did better than his average
- WR7 Quentin Johnston: 22.0 — did better than his average
- WR18 Jordan Addison: 16.1 — did better than his average
- WR21 Rome Odunze: 15.4 — did better than his average
- WR24 Jerry Jeudy: 14.3 — did better than his average
- WR30 Calvin Ridley: 12.3 — did better than his average
- WR31 Tyreek Hill: 12.0
- WR44 Jaylen Waddle: 7.6
- WR48 Alec Pierce: 7.1
- WR78 Tre Tucker: 2.5
- NA Simi Fehoko: 0
- NA Ja’Lynn Polk: 0
Polk and Fehoko saw significant drops in snap percentage this week, down to 13% and 16%, respectively. Meanwhile, Tucker played 92% of the snaps and maintained a solid PWOPR of 0.41.
If Tucker continues to see this level of on-field presence, he’s poised for a breakout game; however, with TE Brock Bowers, WR Jakobi Meyers and a generally struggling offense, reaching that potential may prove challenging.
The “route-based heroes” model list included 12 players last week, with five finishing as a WR2 (top 24) or better.
ROUTE-BASED HEROES: WEEK 10
As a quick reminder of how regression-to-the-mean models work, I predict a player’s FPpG based on their three-week PWOPR (explained more here).
PWOPR is much more stable than FPpG and is a stronger indicator of future performance. To identify potential breakout candidates, I calculate the residual by subtracting the player’s predicted FPpG from their actual FPpG. Players with a good PWOPR and a residual of -3 or lower appear on this list. Players will continue to appear until one of the following occurs:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a big game
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their expected FPpG
Now, let’s review some names on the Week 10 list:
Malik Nabers: Nabers tops the list with the highest PWOPR and actual WOPR in the NFL over the past three weeks. He faces a favorable matchup against the Panthers, who rank last in PFF’s team-based pass-rush grade. This should give Daniel Jones more time to connect with Nabers.
Marvin Harrison Jr.: Despite a rough game last week, Harrison remains on the list. He has yet to post a PWOPR below 0.50 and rarely dips below 0.60 in actual WOPR, though he has struggled to fully capitalize on his opportunities. This week, he has a favorable single-coverage matchup, which could help him break out.
Tyreek Hill: Hill has consistently gotten open, though he’s only had a few games with his starting quarterback. He draws an excellent matchup this week against a defense with the third-worst season-long PFF coverage grade and a high rate of single-coverage situations.
D.J. Moore: Moore saw nine targets last week and ran a season-high 43 routes but was unable to make much of an impact. His PWOPR and actual WOPR have been stable, though he hasn’t surpassed 10 PPR points in the past three games. He faces the Patriots this week, a team that frequently allows single coverage.
Tucker: On a bye this week.
Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce: They have an intriguing matchup against the Bills. While Buffalo has a bottom-five team PFF coverage grade, they’re top-eight in defending wide receivers. The Bills also play a top-four MOFO (middle of the field open) defense, which often limits elite WR performances.
Kayshon Boutte: Since his snap count has increased, Boutte has maintained a PWOPR above 0.42, a solid mark. He’s seen six targets over the past two games but only managed 11 PPR points. With his strong usage and PWOPR, it’s just a matter of time before Maye connects with him consistently.
Michael Wilson: Wilson shares many positive indicators with Harrison, but in Arizona, there may be too many options for consistent production. Kyler Murray is averaging only 28 pass attempts per game, one of the lowest rates in the league, which could limit both Wilson’s and Harrison’s opportunities.
Mason Tipton: An interesting new addition to the list, Tipton led New Orleans in PWOPR in Week 9 with a mark of 0.46 following Olave’s injury. If Tipton can maintain this rate, he could post solid numbers, assuming Carr can get him the ball.
As always, not every player on this list will deliver, but several are likely to exceed their average PPR from the past three weeks, and a few could have explosive games.
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