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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, bettors and analysts often rely on a wide array of statistics and models to gain a competitive edge. These range from basic box score stats to advanced metrics available in PFF's Premium Stats 2.0 and models like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low model and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is always room for new insights and analyses to help bettors and fantasy managers refine their strategies. That’s why I have developed a new metric that offers several advantages over WOPR. Click here for an in-depth explanation of the model, my process and its advantages.
Week 10 Recap
- WR9 Alec Pierce: 18.1 PPR FP— did better than his average
- WR14 Marvin Harrison Jr.: 16.4— did better than his average
- WR25 Tyreek Hill: 11.7— did better than his average
- WR27 Malik Nabers: 10.8
- WR38 Kayshon Boutte: 8.7— did better than his average
- WR56 D.J. Moore: 5.7
- WR59 Michael Wilson: 5.4
- NR Mason Tipton: 0
The model had been on a hot streak in Weeks 9 and 10, identifying six or more breakout performances each week. While this week saw a bit of a cooldown, the model still delivered solid results.
The model's call on Alec Pierce was spot-on, especially impressive given it lacked updated info on Michael Pittman Jr.‘s injury status. Pierce stepped up, while Marvin Harrison Jr. seemed poised for a huge day but was limited by the game script as the Cardinals took control early, leading to only 24 pass attempts from Kyler Murray. This also affected Michael Wilson, who didn’t get the volume needed to make a big impact, marking one of the model’s few misses.
As for Tyreek Hill and Kayshon Boutte, they may not have been true breakout performances, but they did exceed their season averages, which aligns with the model’s primary goal of identifying players poised for better-than-average games.
The biggest disappointment was Malik Nabers, who, despite some promising underlying stats (10 targets, a 68.9 PFF receiving grade and an 11-yard aDOT), couldn't deliver a standout game. Nabers finished with only six catches for 50 yards in Germany, falling short of expectations.
ROUTE-BASED HEROES: WEEK 11
As a quick reminder of how regression-to-the-mean models work, I predict a player’s FPpG based on their three-week PWOPR (explained more here).
PWOPR is much more stable than FPpG and is a stronger indicator of future performance. To identify potential breakout candidates, I calculate the residual by subtracting the player’s predicted FPpG from their actual FPpG. Players with a good PWOPR and a residual of -3 or lower appear on this list. Players will continue to appear until one of the following occurs:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a big game
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their expected FPpG
Now, let’s review some names on the Week 11 list:
Malik Nabers: Once again, Nabers finds his way onto the list. Though he's on a bye this week, keep an eye on him in Week 12 — he could be poised for a strong performance after the break.
Keenan Allen/D.J. Moore: It might be time to dig deeper into Caleb Williams‘ recent struggles. I mentioned this in last week’s “Coach, I was Open,” but Williams is clearly having a tough season. Through Week 10, he ranks 34th among qualifying quarterbacks in PFF grade. His high average time to throw (3.02 seconds) not only invites pressure but also contributes to his fourth-worst pressure-to-sack ratio at 28.7%. For receivers like Allen and Moore, this level of QB play can be a real obstacle to consistent success. While they may still manage occasional standout performances, sustained production will be challenging.
Rashod Bateman: Bateman delivered a strong fantasy performance in Week 10, posting 17.4 PPR points, but his underlying metrics suggest there could be even more to come. He’s consistently maintained a PWOPR (Predicted Weighted Opportunity Per Route) above .50 in recent weeks without fully capitalizing on it. If he keeps up this level of opportunity, we should expect more standout performances as the season progresses.
This week, Bateman and the Ravens face the Steelers, whose coverage unit ranks in the bottom 12 over the last month, according to PFF team grades. Notably, the Steelers lead the league in middle-of-the-field closed (MOFC) coverage rate both during the season and over the past month. MOFC schemes can set up wide receivers for explosive performances when the conditions are right. However, Bateman has struggled against MOFC coverage this season, with a 62.2 PFF grade. Still, if Bateman can overcome these challenges, he could be in line for another solid game.
Kayshon Boutte: Boutte has been performing well by PWOPR metrics, and his Week 10 output was particularly impressive — he posted a .70 PWOPR, the fourth-highest in the NFL. This level of opportunity suggests that a breakout performance could be on the horizon if he continues at this rate. In Week 11, Boutte faces the Rams, who have had a solid defense overall, posting average PFF grades across most defensive metrics over the past month. However, they do rank in the top 12 for allowing single-coverage opportunities, which could work in Boutte's favor. If he can sustain anything close to his Week 10 PWOPR, Boutte is primed for a potential big game soon.
Jaylen Waddle: Jaylen Waddle hasn’t surpassed nine PPR points in a game since Week 1, despite consistently “being open” by the model’s metrics. He has maintained a PWOPR of at least .38 all season, suggesting he’s often in a position to make plays. This could be largely due to Miami’s unique offensive structure, which may limit his production even when he’s generating strong opportunities. In Week 10, Waddle posted a solid PWOPR of .52 and an Actual WOPR of .67, indicating that he had an impressive level of opportunity. Unfortunately, he couldn’t turn that opportunity into big fantasy numbers. While it seems likely that Waddle will bounce back eventually, his ongoing underperformance makes it challenging to rely on him confidently.
Jameson Williams: Williams will play a top-10-graded defense over the past month in the Jaguars. The unit is generally sound in all areas, but the Jaguars offense could put the defense in many tough situations. Jacksonville has run a lot of MOFO coverage over the last month, which generally suppresses truly elite WR performances. But if the Jaguars offense gives Detroit’s offense excess opportunities, we might see the Lions convert a big play or two to Williams.
Calvin Austin III: Austin has a great matchup against a banged-up Ravens secondary. He is a true boom-or-bust play.
Jauan Jennings: Potentially my favorite name on the list: the 49ers breakout star plays a bottom-seven coverage unit per PFF grading over the last month in Seattle. The Seahawks have also allowed the most single-coverage opportunities over the last four weeks. With his new role after the Brandon Aiyuk injury (90%-plus snap share) in a very good offense, Jennings could be a league-winner in many formats.
Michael Wilson: On a bye this week.
As always, not every player on this list will deliver, but several will likely exceed their average PPR from the past three weeks. A few could even have explosive games.
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