Stacking is essential to success in DFS GPPs. The average user who submits a handful of lineups on any one DFS slate doesn’t stack nearly enough in their lineups. The art of stacking is a way to increase variance, which is the only option that offers enough upside to win a GPP tournament. An overlooked approach is the game-level stack, which takes not only a quarterback and pass-catching option but also runs it back with a pass-catcher or running back from the opposing team.
We see in our introductory article on stacking that if we hit on the correct quarterback and wide receiver to stack, a player from the opposing team is typically going to be worthwhile to pair with this combination to apply more lineup correlation into your roster builds.
This provides inherent upside to our lineups — if we hit on the correct quarterback, two or more additional lineup spots are typically hit on by the simple fact that they are highly correlated to our quarterback play. If your quarterback is a miss, the rest of your lineup is likely in a similar situation, as it is hard to pull off a quality finish in a GPP contest with a dud at the quarterback position.
Focusing on this approach of identifying quarterbacks who could be hits, we have built a model to project who is most likely to finish as the highest-scoring quarterback on the main slate based on fantasy projections and betting market lines. Utilizing correlations for how fantasy points are distributed at the game level, we can then see the correct framework for how to approach roster construction for a game stack.
Week 1 Review
We saw this approach play out to massive success in Week 1. Our first game stack was a miss, but the second game stack our model identified was Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley and D.K. Metcalf. These three formed the core of the winning DraftKings Millionaire Maker lineup in their $100 contest. It was this combination or a swap of Russell Wilson that found itself at the top of a lot of GPP contests across the industry.
The stack of Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Adam Thielen was the other squad sitting atop GPP contests in Week 1 (that benefited even more with the addition of Allen Lazard). This was a borderline play, according to our model, which knocked it some due to the total dropping as we moved toward opening kickoff.
Week 2 has a lot of intrigue from a game stack perspective. We have three games that opened at 50 or above, with two still holding onto their high total. Five more games on the main slate have a total over 45, which should spread out ownership and allow most stacks to be playable. Let’s dive into the best stacks for Week 2 based on our model predictions for games that could involve the highest-scoring players at each position.
HIGH-OWNED OPTIONS
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans
The Ravens' Week 1 game played out exactly how most expected, but Lamar Jackson failed to burst through the fantasy ceiling at his high salary to pay off his GPP usage. It's going to be a balancing act when utilizing Jackson in GPP contests this season, as his upside is capped in blowout victories if his rushing ability isn’t what leads to offensive production. Jackson threw for three touchdowns and 275 yards but rushed for only 45 yards, which makes it hard to pay off his salary.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.