Fantasy Football: Darkhorse candidates to finish as the overall TE1 in 2024

• This is the year! (It has to be): Kyle Pitts‘ fantasy managers have waited long enough for him to deliver on his overall TE1 upside, and with the situation around him being upgraded significantly, it should allow him to deliver on that potential.

• The Dallas Cowboys have a clear No. 2 receiver next to CeeDee Lamb, and it’s a tight end: Jake Ferguson proved his worth in Year 2 and should continue to build on the strong start to his career.

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Finding a darkhorse fantasy TE1 oftentimes means that Travis Kelce missed a good chunk of games that season, but as proven last year with Sam LaPorta, darkhorse TE1 candidates do exist and Kelce’s throne has proven to be attainable. Kelce and LaPorta are going to be drafted among the top two at their position this season while some of the other top candidates will be selected in the top five, which is where the overall TE1 has come from for over a decade, prior to last year.

To fit the darkhorse theme and qualifications, we’ll look at tight ends going outside the top five in their positional average draft position to find another potential outlier, like LaPorta last season, as difficult as that may seem. Looking back at the impressive numbers that Kelce, LaPorta and Mark Andrews posted in their TE1 seasons, we should at least have a starting point for what to look for in our potential darkhorse options.

• Averaging close to 14 PPR points per game should be considered the absolute minimum for our TE1 candidates this season — a mark that only Kelce and T.J. Hockenson hit last year.
• Several tight ends cleared double-digit PPR points per game last season, so it will be necessary for a darkhorse tight end to add a few more points per game to get themselves into that upper echelon in 2024.

• Several other underlying metrics create the high-end points per game totals that our past TE1s provided over the past few seasons, which will hopefully help us narrow down who can break through this season.
• Much like all high-end receiving options, optimal efficiency goes hand in hand with our top fantasy finishers at the position.
• Yards per route run is one of the key stable metrics for tight ends, so those who have a history of being the most efficient at the position should be able to produce close to 2.00 yards per route run to get within reach of the overall TE1.
• Each past TE1 finished top five in PFF receiving grade in those seasons as well, so having the skill set to get to that range should also be considered.
• Lastly, touchdown opportunities are going to be key for elite fantasy production at the position, so a red-zone target rate of more than 20% is crucial.
• 2021 was one of the only seasons where Kelce didn’t finish as the overall TE1, and it was also the only year that he did not hit a 20%-plus red-zone target rate (15.1%) over these past six seasons.

With all the criteria in mind, we can take on the difficult task of identifying which tight ends going outside the top five at their position could make a real push to become 2024’s TE1.

Best shot: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

• Sleeper ADP: TE6
• Underdog ADP: TE6
• ESPN ADP: TE8

Pitts' fantasy managers over the past two seasons are likely frustrated enough that they’ll not want to consider Pitts as the best shot to emerge as TE1 among these darkhorse candidates, and if we’re looking at his numbers from those two seasons, then he doesn’t even check the boxes to qualify as the best shot. However, that’s where context comes in. With a significant upgrade at quarterback along with a new coaching staff, Pitts has the pieces around him to allow the young and talented tight end’s full potential to come to fruition.

Kirk Cousins coming in as Atlanta’s new QB1 is an upgrade that should not be understated. Over the past two seasons, Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke have been among the most inaccurate quarterbacks in the league, leading to Pitts ranking among the bottom fifth percentile in catchable target rate at his position in each season. Luckily, for Pitts — and all of Atlanta’s pass-catching options – Cousins led the league in adjusted completion rate (80.5%) last season and ranks third (77.8%) in that regard over the past three years combined. The Falcons quarterbacks as a whole ranked 30th in adjusted completion rate over that span.

Pitts should have a lot more opportunities to stay on the field and remain involved in the offense this season as well, which was becoming more of a concern under Arthur Smith as his offensive snap share dipped lower every year. Pitts was just not the fit for Smith’s offense that Atlanta would have hoped for when spending the fourth overall pick on a tight end. The checklist below isn’t encouraging, but keeping in mind that with Raheem Morris taking over, past tight end target competition gone, the upgrade at quarterback and considering he’s just 23 years old and entering his prime, Pitts is clearly the favorite darkhorse candidate for the overall TE1 in 2024. 

Medium shot: Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars

• Sleeper ADP: TE8
• Underdog ADP: TE8
• ESPN ADP: TE7

At 30 years old by the start of this season, maybe Engram can be considered the long-shot, but knowing that Travis Kelce is 34 and has been in TE1 contention every year that he’s been in his 30s, we’ll stick with a medium chance of hitting here for Engram. Engram led the Jaguars in targets (140), which also led all tight ends, as well as receptions (114). Engram was a significant part of the Jacksonville offense in 2023, and there isn’t much in the way of him doing so once again after finishing as the overall PPR TE4.

Engram’s target projection is still likely to remain top-two at his position across multiple outlets, and part of that comes from Calvin Ridley departing in free agency, leaving behind 132 targets to distribute among this year’s Jacksonville receiving corps. Not only are Ridley’s vacated targets helpful, but his red-zone targets, specifically, could provide a big boost to Engram’s ceiling in 2024. Ridley led the Jaguars in red-zone targets – by far – with 25 on the year, which also ranked tied for third in the entire league last season. Engram stands out as the clear favorite to absorb that red-zone role, which, if true, should allow him to set a new career-high in touchdowns – a number that he has yet to improve upon since getting six in his rookie year.

Engram isn’t exactly a star when it comes to his overall receiving metrics, but after what he accomplished last season, he proved he was no slouch either. His 73.2 receiving grade and 1.56 yards per route run were both top-10 marks at his position with room for improvement. Engram has a strong shot to lead this team in targets once again this season while absorbing a larger role in a high-value fantasy area of the field – the red zone, leaving plenty of reasons to be optimistic about his darkhorse TE1 potential.

Long shot: Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

• Sleeper ADP: TE11
• Underdog ADP: TE9
• ESPN ADP: TE10

Ferguson checks in as our long shot for darkhorse TE1, thanks to the most significant target competition among these three, where he’ll compete with last season’s overall target leader (179) and fantasy WR1, CeeDee Lamb. However, without the team adding any other significant competition for targets, there’s reason for optimism that he can even improve on his strong 2023 season.

Ferguson ranked top 10 among tight ends in targets (96), receptions (71) and receiving yards (761) despite Lamb posting elite utilization as a wide receiver. The Cowboys’ high-end offense led the league in red-zone plays last season, which resulted in a league-leading 36 passing touchdowns. Somehow, Ferguson only caught five of those touchdown passes despite ranking top five at his position in red-zone targets per game (1.4) and sixth in overall red-zone target rate (20.6%). Should that usage remain the same this season, there’s room for Ferguson to improve his touchdown totals in 2024.

Dallas relied heavily on Ferguson as its second-best target earner throughout most of the year, especially coming out of the team's bye week when he upped his playing time from 66% of Dallas' offensive snaps to 83% the rest of the year. During that stretch and into the playoffs, Ferguson received fewer than six targets just three times across those 12 games with his best game coming in the playoffs, when he earned 12 targets and caught 10 for 93 yards and three touchdowns. This happened to go along with Lamb earning 18 targets in that game. Ferguson and Lamb figure to once again be the Cowboys’ dynamic duo, and Ferguson has the best shot to improve his stock heading into Year 3 of his NFL career.