Fantasy Football: Darkhorse candidates to finish as QB1 in 2024

• Kyler Murray leads the way: After not playing a full season since 2021 and adding the top receiving prospect in this year’s draft, Murray has the best shot to surprise as the overall QB1 in 2024.

• Jayden Daniels has all the upside we’re looking for in fantasy: As a rookie, there are more question marks about what he can be in the NFL, but based on his college profile, Daniels should be an immediate high-end fantasy asset.

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Estimated Reading Time: 12 minutes

The obvious choices to finish as the overall QB1 for fantasy are already going inside the top five at their position in terms of ADP, but before those players became the obvious choices, they were being drafted well outside of that range. This list will look at some candidates going outside the top-five quarterbacks in ADP and highlight what they need to do in 2024 to finish as the top players at their position.

These are darkhorse candidates after all, so the path to QB1 isn’t going to be easy, but by looking back at what the recipe for success was for those that have been there before, we can try and find the guys that check a lot of similar boxes and have the best shot to make it.

• While Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have been highly drafted in each of the past three seasons, their, along with Lamar Jackson, initial high-end fantasy finishes were not necessarily expected from fantasy drafters. This makes sense and is often the case for almost every position. Players need to prove it before fantasy managers can feel good about investing in them, but it can also pay off to get ahead of the market.
• This has been especially true with quarterbacks who don’t necessarily have a proven track record of success in the NFL as passers but offer the rushing upside that could push them over the top once that passing ability catches up. 
• 2015 Cam Newton is another name to add to the list as someone who could have been considered a true dark horse to finish at the top of his position, as he was drafted as the QB15 in the season he became fantasy’s QB1.

• 2019’s Lamar Jackson is the clear outlier in terms of overall passing yards from a fantasy QB1, but he was also a significant outlier as a runner with over 1,200 yards on double-digit attempts per game.
• This path to success could be key for a lot of young, mobile quarterbacks who are still developing as passers, although 1,200 yards are still on the extreme end of quarterback production.
• Based on this data, the aim should be around 35 touchdown passes and 4,000 passing yards to reach that QB1 status. Last season, there was only one quarterback to do so, Dak Prescott – who made the darkhorse QB1 list last offseason and finished as QB4 overall.
• Considering that these high-end passing totals are rarely accomplished, relying on rushing success could be crucial for these darkhorse options, leading to our next key criteria.

• Rushing upside has become a significant cheat code for fantasy production and a quarterback that comes out on the high end of rushing attempts per game has an even greater shot to reach that QB1 mark.
• Look no further than last year’s top-three quarterbacks, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson who all also finished top-three in rushing fantasy points per game.
• Elite passers like Mahomes don’t necessarily need that much in the way of rushing production to finish as QB1 when throwing for over 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns, but that is a very high bar to set for a potential darkhorse, so rushing upside becomes all the more crucial.
• Allen also set a very high bar in his rushing production last season with 15 rushing touchdowns on the year, helping make up for the lowest passing touchdown total of the past six seasons worth of QB1s.

• A few additional things stood out when looking at what allowed each of the past season’s quarterbacks to finish as the top option at their position, one of which, unsurprisingly, was accuracy. Each quarterback, other than 2021 and 2023 Allen, ranked top-10 at their position on the season in terms of adjusted completion percentage. Allen, at least, had a history of this, ranking fifth the year before his drop-off in 2021.
• Each QB1 was also among the best in the league each season at avoiding sacks, ranking inside the top 10 in terms of pressure-to-sack conversion rate allowed. Keeping drives alive and avoiding pressure, potentially for scramble opportunities, has been key.
• The last bit that stands out is that each QB1 had a top receiving option who earned a career receiving grade over 90.0 on their roster on the year of the QB1 season so their should be at least one option on the team that is either capable of reaching that height or has done so previously.

With all of this in mind, let’s look at this year’s darkhorse candidates going outside the top five in ADP who have a darkhorse shot to be the 2024 QB1.

BEST SHOT: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

• Sleeper ADP: QB8
• Underdog ADP: QB7
• ESPN ADP: QB9

Murray is no stranger to finishing as a top-12 fantasy quarterback, doing so as a rookie and in each of the two seasons that followed. However, due to missed time in 2022 and 2023, it’s been three years since his last top-12 finish. This season is primed to be his best chance of not only returning to that form but also potentially back closer to his 2020 form when he finished as the overall QB2. 

Murray played just eight full games in 2023 and 10 in 2022 but showcased his high-end fantasy potential with 11 top-12 finishes (61%) in those 18 games while never finishing worse than QB22 in the weeks he played more than a quarter of the game. Murray’s floor remains high because of his high-end rushing upside, as he averaged 4.5 runs per game last season that accounted for 5.3 fantasy points per game — sixth at the position. Murray’s rushing ability helps give him an elite fantasy upside to make him one of the most enticing fantasy quarterback targets going outside the top five in ADP right now. If Murray can bounce back as a passer, his QB1 potential is also the best of that group.

Murray’s shortened 2022 and 2023 seasons resulted in his two lowest passing grades since his rookie year, but there is hope that with a full season and a big upgrade at wide receiver, he can get back to his strong 2020 and 2021 season ranks. Murray earned an 86.3 PFF passing grade over those two seasons, which were also the most productive fantasy years of his career when he had DeAndre Hopkins as his top target. Hopkins earned an 89.9 PFF receiving grade over that span (seventh at the position), but Murray hasn’t had a top receiving option like that since, including 2022 Hopkins, who just wasn’t as effective as he once was by that point. Tight end Trey McBride is one of those top options, and the addition of the top wide receiver in the 2024 draft, Marvin Harrison Jr., should provide the perfect combination of receiving talent to help push Murray over the top as a fantasy asset in 2024.

The best quarterback options among the top five in ADP all fit the same criteria with a better recent track record, but that doesn’t mean Murray can’t get back there with some help. He already has the history of 20-plus fantasy points per game in prior seasons, his rushing ability hasn’t diminished, and with the Harrison addition along with McBride at tight end, his passing production should be the best it’s been since 2021. Murray’s last two full seasons resulted in over 3,900 passing yards and at least 425 rushing yards, which both resulted in top-12 finishes at the position. His first full season since 2021 should allow everything to come together once again to potentially top those marks, making him the best candidate as the darkhorse fantasy QB1 this year.

Kyler Murray’s path to QB1 checklist:

MEDIUM SHOT: Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

• Sleeper ADP: QB15
• Underdog ADP: QB11
• ESPN ADP: QB12

The No. 2 overall pick from the 2024 NFL Draft is currently being drafted outside the top 10 at his position, and if his rookie season goes as expected, that ADP should be considered a discount. Daniels arguably offers the most rushing upside of any player going outside the top-five players at his position, evidenced by his 14.0% scramble rate in his college career – the highest mark among any of the top rushing quarterbacks currently in the NFL. Not only does Daniels offer a high number of rush attempts for the position, but his history of what he can do with the ball in his hands is also among the best we’ve seen coming out of college since 2017, ranking among the top 95th percentile in his career in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.31), yards per carry (7.5), yards after contact per attempt (4.05) and explosive run rate (28.5%).

Daniels' biggest question mark, and why he isn’t considered the “best shot” to finish as QB1 among the darkhorse candidates, is what he can provide as a passer. Daniels’ arm strength is one of his defining attributes, but he doesn’t quite have the resume as a passer of some of his peers, outside of his 2023 season. Last year was his lone college season where he threw for more than 2,800 passing yards and recorded at least an 80.0 PFF passing grade, so hitting the ground running as a passer shouldn’t be considered a lock. Helping his case is Terry McLaurin, whose — while not having hit that 90.0 PFF receiving grade in a single season — career receiving grade sits at 89.4 — a top-20 career mark since 2019, implying that he has the potential to still reach that mark.

Daniels’ rushing ability is going to be a significant factor in delivering on his fantasy potential as a darkhorse QB1 candidate. Should he also deliver similarly as the passer he was in his 2023 Heisman-winning season at LSU where he earned a 92.0 passing grade and threw for 3,811 yards, 40 touchdowns, and just four interceptions, he’ll become the dual-threat quarterback necessary to consistently deliver on his fantasy QB1 potential.

Jayden Daniels’ path to QB1 checklist:

LONG SHOT: Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

• Sleeper ADP: QB23
• Underdog ADP: QB21
• ESPN ADP: QB21

Watson managed three straight top-five fantasy finishes from 2018-2020, but since then, he’s been suspended, and injured while his play on the field has been far from his past self. As a result, he is now being drafted outside the top 20 at his position, making him the longest shot for overall QB1 despite just as much fantasy success in his career as our best shot, Kyler Murray. 

Watson’s injuries and suspension have resulted in just 12 appearances across the past three NFL seasons where he’s been unable to regain his pre-suspension form that resulted in a top-10 mark in either overall PFF grade or passing grade in three straight seasons after his rookie year. Unfortunately, it hasn’t just been falling outside of the top-10 quarterbacks since his return, but Watson has been unable to crack the top-25 at his position in either category. Fortunately, we know Watson can perform to this level based on his history, and Amari Cooper — his top receiving option — while not owning a 90.0-plus receiving grade for his career, is right there with an 88.7 for his career. The rest of the Browns offense also provides a high-upside ceiling if head coach Kevin Stefanski can unlock the potential of Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore, while Nick Chubb ideally bounces back from injury. With a top-five-ranked offensive line, Watson has the supporting cast to succeed, he’ll just need to bounce back in a big way.

Part of what can also help Watson bounce back and deliver on his past fantasy success is his rushing ability. Even last season, his 4.3 runs per game were only slightly lower than his high-end fantasy season’s average (4.9) and ranked top-10 at the position last season. Watson’s 8.8% scramble rate in 2023 was a top-five mark at the position with both resulting in 3.4 rushing fantasy points per game (10th). Even with the poor passing performances and missing the elite rushing production, Watson managed a top-10 fantasy finish in three of his six games last year, and in five of his last eight games. An improvement as a passer, and maintaining his rushing production, as unlikely as it seems based on his time with the Browns, is at least within his realm of possibilities, and necessary for him to deliver as a long-shot darkhorse QB1 candidate.

Deshaun Watson’s path to QB1 checklist: