Darkhorse running backs to finish as the fantasy football RB1 in 2021

The running backs being drafted early in 2021 fantasy football drafts obviously have the greatest chance to deliver top fantasy performances. They've proven themselves and have earned the rushing/receiving opportunity to repeat in the coming season. However, every few years we see a running back who hasn’t quite hit the upper echelon of fantasy production break out.

Before we dive into the list of dark horse candidates to finish as the fantasy football RB1 in 2021, let’s first examine the RB1 finishers from the last five years using 0.5-PPR scoring.

Season	RB1	Total Points	PPG	PPG Rank
2020	Alvin Kamara	336.3	22.4	3
2019	Christian McCaffrey	413.2	25.8	1
2018	Todd Gurley	342.6	24.5	1
2017	Todd Gurley	351.3	23.4	1
2016	David Johnson	367.8	23.0	2

The first thing to note here is that each of the last five RB1s ranked in the top three in fantasy points per game. Elite running backs need to play at an elite level most if not all of the season to claim the RB1 title on the year.

Players need to averag around 23 points per game in order to have a shot at the RB1 slot. Kamara’s 2020 RB1 season was solid, but injuries to big-name running backs like Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley and Dalvin Cook opened the gate for his first RB1 title.

Next, let’s look at the breakdown of rushing versus receiving.

Season	RB1	Att	RuYDS	Tgt	Rec	RecYDS	Total TD
2020	Alvin Kamara	187	932	107	83	756	21
2019	Christian McCaffrey	287	1,387	142	116	1,005	15
2018	Todd Gurley	256	1,251	87	59	580	16
2017	Todd Gurley	279	1,305	87	64	788	19
2016	David Johnson	293	1,239	120	80	879	20

Simply speaking, we're look for players who touch the ball a lot. None of these running backs had fewer than 250 total touches, though Kamara's 2020 was on a lighter rushing workload. The benchmark for 2021 should be closer to 325 touches, and it's important to note that none of these running backs saw fewer than 87 targets on the year.

Touchdown variance is also essentially a requirement for landing an RB1 season. All five players had 15 or more total scores in their leading season — an average of about one touchdown per week. In fact, scoring is the most important component of the offense when looking at team ranks.

Season	Team	Off Yds	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	Scoring
2020	Saints	12	19	6	5
2019	Panthers	19	20	14	20
2018	Rams	2	5	3	2
2017	Rams	10	10	8	1
2016	Cardinals	9	9	18	5

Four out of the last five RB1s were part of a top-five scoring offense on the year. This might seem like bit of a chicken or egg conversation, but it’s also a fairly obvious point — the running back absolutely needs to be on a high-scoring offense if he's not named Christian McCaffrey.

EPA-based rankings paint a similar picture, but efficiency doesn’t matter quite as much as pure volume.

Season	Team	EPA	Pass EPA	Rush EPA
2020	Saints	12	13	7
2019	Panthers	27	28	22
2018	Rams	3	5	2
2017	Rams	7	8	8
2016	Cardinals	20	21	21

Four running backs being drafted outside of the top 12 at their position stand out as having the best chance to finish as this season’s RB1 based on these parameters.

2021 dark horse fantasy RB1 candidates

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

What he has: rushing attempts, talent
What he needs: O-line improvement, more targets