(“Today’s Crazy Fantasy Stat” is an occasional offseason offering from PFF that highlights something that catches our eye and aids in our preparation for the 2017 fantasy season.)
A wide receiver leading his team in receiving yards is pretty normal. Like a starting pitcher leading his team in wins, or a lead guitarist also being the lead singer.
A tight end leading his team in receiving yard is fine, as well. Relievers can lead a team in wins. Sometimes drummers take the lead for a song.
A running back, though? A running back leading the team in receiving yards is like the shortstop leading the team in wins, or a roadie grabbing the mic for a power ballad.
(Tortured metaphors over now.)
In the last five years, two running backs have led their respective teams in receiving yards for a year:
- Danny Woodhead, Chargers, 2015. Woodhead had 755 receiving yards, while Keenan Allen had 725 and Antonio Gates had 630.
- Jamaal Charles, Chiefs, 2013. Charles had 693 receiving yards, while Dwayne Bowe had 673 and Donnie Avery had 596.
Both running backs had big years in those seasons. Woodhead had 336 yards and three scores on the ground, and added six receiving scores. With 80 receptions, he finished the year as the No. 3 running back in PPR leagues. Charles had an even better year, with 1,287 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns to go with his seven scores on receptions and 70 catches — he was comfortably the No. 1 fantasy running back that year in any format.
Of course, other running backs have had similar receiving seasons. In 2012, Darren Sproles had 667 receiving yards and seven scores, but of course he did it on the Saints, who had big years out of Marques Colston, Lance Moore, and Jimmy Graham at the same time. Marshall Faulk has the post-merger record for RB receiving yards, putting up 1,048 for the Rams in 1999, but Isaac Bruce still topped him. Just this past season, David Johnson had 879 receiving yards and four touchdowns, but on the Cardinals, that was behind Larry Fitzgerald’s 1,023 and six.
Today, we’re not looking for the top PPR running backs. That’s easy. (Which doesn’t make it any less beneficial, just that it isn’t a deep pull.) What we’re looking for is a quirk. What running backs in 2017 could lead their respective teams in receiving yards? Which roadies will get a shot at singing that song? (Sorry, promised I’d stop that.) Are there any candidates for the anomaly this year? Will there be a unicorn?
It’s not just a matter of excellent receiving skill. Woodhead needed Allen to have a strong first half, then get injured. Charles needed a lackluster receiver corps in Kansas City. It’s a confluence of occurrences that have to come together to make it possible.
The candidates
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals: After his monster 2016, which included being named PFF’s best overall receiver, it’s hard to put anything past Johnson in 2017. That said, the last five years, the leading Cardinals receiver has averaged 983.6 receiving yards a year, with the down years coming when the team’s quarterback situation was so bad that no pass-catcher of any sort was going to tally much production.
Can he do it? Probably not. Even if Johnson is exactly as good in 2017 as he was in 2016, and even if Larry Fitzgerald finally realizes he’s old, John Brown sounds like he’s due for a bounceback after a down 2016. Johnson remains one of the league’s top receiving backs, but he’s not our unicorn.
Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers: Bell had 616 receiving yards in 2016, but in only 12 games; over 16 games he would have been right there with Johnson near the top of the leaderboards. Bell’s played all 16 games once in his career, and that was in 2014, when he had 854 receiving yards.
Can he do it? NOPE. As good as Bell is, Antonio Brown is just as good. Brown has led the Steelers in receiving yards four straight years. Had he gained 10 more yards in 2014, he would have had more than double the No. 2 Steeler all four times. Even if Brown were to get hurt, the return of Martavis Bryant means it’s unlikely Bell has any real shot at the team lead.
Theo Riddick, Detroit Lions: Riddick has been one of the top receiving backs the last two years, with 1,068 yards and 133 receptions over 26 games the last two years. With Ameer Abdullah back and seemingly healthy, Riddick won’t be asked to be the workhorse back he had to be for parts of 2016, which should (hopefully) help to keep him healthy.
Can he do it? Very unlikely. Abdullah isn’t a pure runner, and will eat into Riddick’s targets. On top of that, maybe Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, and Eric Ebron are not vintage Calvin Johnson, but all three had 700-plus yards a year ago, better than Riddick’s career-best.
James White and Dion Lewis, New England Patriots: White quietly had the third-most targets among all running backs, with 76. He caught 60 of them for 551 yards and 5 touchdowns. A year earlier, Lewis had 46 targets over only seven games played, a 16-game pace of more than 100. He had 388 yards and 2 touchdowns on receptions before his season-ending injury.
Can they do it? The simple fact that there are two of them contending for the gig on the same team means it’s almost certainly a no. Not only will White and Lewis cannibalize each other’s targets, but Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead will be fed in some way or another, and with Rob Gronkowski healthy and Brandin Cooks in the fold, in addition to the returning Julian Edelman, it’s hard to see a way where either Patriot pass-catching back can stand above the field.
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers: McCaffrey was a big-time pass-catcher in college, particularly in 2015, when he was seventh across all of the FBS in targets with 53 targets and blew away the field with 3.25 yards per route run (no qualifying back in all three years of PFF’s college tracking has topped 2.85, and only Sproles’ 3.45 in 2008 has topped that number in the pros in the history of PFF). McCaffrey’s addition to Carolina signals a bit of a shift change in the team’s gameplan, meaning the team might be looking to target running backs more going forward.
Can he do it? It’s possible. If the question were whether McCaffrey could total more receiving yards than any of the Panthers’ wide receivers, that would be one thing. But Greg Olsen has led the Panthers in receiving four straight years, including topping 1,000 yards the last three. Add to that the new presence of Curtis Samuel, who will do a lot of the same work as McCaffrey, and while it’s possible McCaffrey is a dominant pass-catching rookie, odds are against him leading the team.
Bilal Powell, New York Jets: Powell only had 385 receiving yards in 2016, though he was targeted 69 times and caught 58 balls. His 6.6 yards per reception and 5.6 yards per target were both the third-worst of any back with 50-plus targets. Powell’s targets and overall usage bounced around a bit in 2016, as he jockeyed with Matt Forte for the role as the team’s No. 1 back, but he seized the role late in the season.
Can he do it? Maybe! Working in Powell’s favor is the fact that the Jets have nothing worth writing home about at receiver or tight end. Quincy Enunwa led the team in receiving yards in 2016 at 857, the third time in the last five years the Jets have had its leading receiver finish with under 900 yards (in 2013, Jeremy Kerley led the Jets in receiving yards … at 523). Enunwa, Robby Anderson, ArDarius Stewart, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins do not inspire confidence as big-time receivers. With the Jets in full-on tank mode, there’s even a chance Forte doesn’t make the team (it doesn’t make much sense for a 31-year-old to run out the string on a team that has no chance), making Powell’s path easier. If he can really take the full-time gig from Forte, or even have Forte go away, and produce like he did down the stretch in 2016, he’s our best unicorn candidate in 2017, by my math.
A running back leading his team in receiving yards is very rare, as it should be. Odds are, no back will pull the trick in 2017. But if you were playing it a little crazy and looking for a candidate, it’s Bilal Powell, with an honorable mention to Christian McCaffrey.
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