Premium Content Sign Up

2022's Fantasy Breakout Wide Receiver: Nico Collins, Houston Texans

Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (12) makes a catch during warmups before the game against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

In this series of articles, we're looking at breakout potential for second-year wide receivers in fantasy football for 2022. This analysis focuses on the Houston TexansNico Collins. You can find articles for other wide receivers from the 2021 NFL Draft class here.

One of the best ways to determine the range of outcomes and the probability of success for fantasy players is by comparing them to similar historical players. In this analysis, I’ll compare Collins to hundreds of receivers drafted since 2006 and project the likelihood of his breakout based on those who had the most similar size, college production, draft position and rookie metrics. 

All PFF+ subscribers now have access to our revamped fantasy football draft guide, which has all the streamlined and intuitive features you’ll need to dominate your draft this season. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR PFF+ AND TRY IT FREE TODAY

METHODOLOGY

The matching methodology for this set of articles is similar to that for focusing on 2022 wide receiver and running back prospect comps, where I found the closest statistically comparable players using principal component analysis (PCA) and the euclidean distance between the players' components, and then gave each a “similarity” score based on percentile of distance. 

The metrics for PCA are draft position, weight, market share of college receiving yards (CFB Yds MS), college yards per reception (CFB YPR), rookie yards per route run (Rook YPRR), rookie average depth of target (Rook aDOT), rookie PPR fantasy points per game (PPR Per) and top-24 fantasy weeks (Top 24). All college numbers are from players’ final seasons.

NICO COLLINS COMPS

DOMINATE FANTASY FOOTBALL & BETTING WITH AI-POWERED DATA & TOOLS TRUSTED BY ALL 32

Unlimited Fantasy League Sync
Fantasy Start/Sit Line-Up Optimizer & Waiver Wire
WR-CB & OL-DL Matchups, PFF Player Grades, & Premium Stats 2.0 Tools
Nathan Jahnkes Rankings - #1 Most Accurate Last 70 Weeks
PFF Best Bets, Player Props, & Power Ranking Tools
NFL Mock Draft Sim with Trades & Draft Grades

Already have a subscription? Log In

Subscriptions

Unlock the 2024 Fantasy Draft Kit, with Live Draft Assistant, Fantasy Mock Draft Sim, Rankings & PFF Grades

$24.99/mo
OR
$119.99/yr