Boom – to flourish vigorously
Bust – a worthless thing
Daily fantasy sports is a hyper-nuanced game. Theory can inform personal ownership stakes, or desirable plays can be identified and then analyzed for fit. I prefer the latter method. Which players do I want to be heavier on than the field, and which players do I want to be light on, or avoid entirely? The boom/bust report will feature players that fit the following descriptions: a boom is a high-priced stud with favorable conditions to hit 3x value, or a lower priced player with favorable conditions to hit 4x value. A bust is any player with unfavorable conditions to hit 3x value, regardless of salary.
(Prices and advice based on DraftKings salaries)
Booms
Quarterback
Eli Manning ($5700, QB9) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Despite having a down year overall, Manning has exploited favorable matchups this season, including sterling performances against Tampa Bay (288/2/0) and San Francisco (273/2/0). The Chiefs rank sixth-worst in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and have allowed the seventh-most passing yards. The Chiefs have allowed two or more passing touchdowns in three consecutive road games.
Running back
Kareem Hunt ($8000, RB4) vs. New York Giants
Over his career, Andy Reid has won just shy of 90 percent of his post-bye games. The Chiefs are coming off a Week 10 bye and face the 1-8 New York Giants. Hunt has six touchdowns this season and every one of them came in Chiefs wins. The Giants have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season. I like Hunt’s chances to find the end zone and to grab the 100-yard DraftKings rushing bonus in Week 11.
Wide receiver
Sterling Shepard ($6300, WR12) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Yes, I know. I’m suggesting a Giants passing game stack, but hear me out. Shepard runs 84 percent of his routes from the slot. He will draw the majority of his coverage from Chiefs nickel corner, Steven Nelson. Nelson hasn’t played enough snaps to qualify his player grade yet, but if he had, he’d rank outside the top 100 cornerbacks in overall grade and would be one of only 13 at the position to register a coverage grade under 40. The Chiefs are also the NFL’s worst defense in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, but are a top-10 defense in limiting points to opposing tight ends. This could be a week where we see less volume forced to Evan Engram in favor of Shepard and his rosy matchup.
Tight end
Tyler Kroft ($2900, TE13) vs. Denver Broncos
This call is all about price and opponent. Kroft faces a Broncos defense which has allowed a touchdown to a tight end in six out of nine games this season. The Broncos have held opposing tight ends to less than five receptions just once in nine games. They’ve also allowed 19 or more PPR points to tight ends six out of nine games. It doesn’t take much to hit 4x with a salary of just $2900. A line of 3/30/1 would get Kroft above the mark, and I think that’s setting the bar low.
Busts
Quarterback
Jared Goff ($6500, QB5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sean McVay has proven very willing and able to devise game scripts which take advantage of his team’s best matchup advantages (or to avoid his worst) each week. The Vikings have only allowed nine passing touchdowns this season and are also a top-10 defense in passing yards allowed per game. I’m not suggesting that Gurley will go off either; the Vikings have been equally stout against the run. However, in a key matchup that will have huge playoff seeding ramifications, I don’t think McVay will test Xavier Rhodes and his defensive backfield comrades (eight interceptions) unless his hand is forced.
Running back
Leonard Fournette ($8200, RB2) vs. Cleveland Browns
The Browns have been a brutal matchup for running backs this season, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry and only four rushing touchdowns. They’ve allowed more PPR production out of the backfield via the passing game (53.9 percent, including three receiving touchdowns to running backs) than the rushing game. Fournette didn’t look great last week against a very beatable Chargers run defense (the league’s second-worst). Our OL/DL matchup guide also pinpoints the Jaguars offensive line as having the fourth-worst matchup of the week against the Browns improved defensive front.
Wide receiver
A.J. Green ($7000, WR5) vs. Denver Broncos
As bad as the Broncos have been against tight ends, they’ve remained one of the worst matchups for wide receivers. They are one of only two squads yet to allow 1000 total receiving yards to wide receivers this season (Jacksonville is the other). They’re much easier to attack via funneling targets to the tight end and are also more pliable against the run. Green has faced the Broncos in each of the past two seasons and has only managed PPR lines of 17.7 and 15.7 points and didn’t register more than 80 receiving yards in either game.
Tight end
Hunter Henry ($3500, TE10) vs. Buffalo Bills
Scott Spratt identified a key trend with Henry last week, tying his production to matchups against blitz-heavy teams. The Bills only blitz 23.1 percent of the time, which means another week of not easily finding soft spots under the safeties. Henry has seen his target count drop in five consecutive weeks and has managed just three receptions and 18 receiving yards the past two weeks combined. As of release, it’s also not certain whether Philip Rivers will play.
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