Boom – to flourish vigorously
Bust – a worthless thing
Daily fantasy sports is a hyper-nuanced game. Theory can inform personal ownership stakes, or desirable plays can be identified and then analyzed for fit. I prefer the latter method. Which players do I want to be heavier on than the field, and which players do I want to be light on, or avoid entirely? The boom/bust report will feature players that fit the following descriptions: a boom is a player priced at $6000 or above who I’m projecting to return at least 3x DraftKings salary value, or a player priced at $5900 or less with favorable conditions to hit 4x salary value. A bust is any player with unfavorable conditions to hit 3x value, regardless of salary.
There was no boom/bust Report last week, so there is no report card to share this week. Let’s dive in to week 16 action.
Booms
Quarterback
Blake Bortles ($6500, QB6) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Bortles has multiple touchdowns (either through the air or on the ground) in four straight games and the 49ers have allowed multiple touchdowns in eight of the past nine games. A few weeks ago, this game would’ve projected as one to target the Jacksonville running game, however 49ers game scripts have totally changed since Jimmy Garoppolo took over as the starting quarterback. The 49ers have also allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season and the 10th-fewest rushing touchdowns to running backs.
Running back
Ezekiel Elliott ($8000, RB5) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Elliott is a lock for at least 20 touches in a must-win game for the Cowboys this week. The Seahawks have been absolutely gashed on the ground in the past two games, allowing 158 yards to the Jaguars and 197 to the Rams. They also allowed four rushing touchdowns in those contests. Elliott hasn’t been this cheap since week two. Take the discount in this rosy matchup.
Wide receiver
Doug Baldwin ($6300, WR15) vs. Dallas Cowboys
As bad as the Seahawks have been against running backs of late, the Cowboys have been equally bad against wide receivers, making this Elliott-Baldwin game stack an intriguing play. Baldwin should draw most of his coverage against Anthony Brown and based on our WR/CB Matchup tool this represents a top-10 matchup. The Cowboys have allowed a staggering 19 touchdowns to wide receivers (most in the NFL), including 11 in the past eight games.
Tight end
Antonio Gates ($2500, minimum priced) vs. New York Jets
Teammate Hunter Henry was placed on injured reserve, leaving Gates as the passing-down specialist in a likely positional committee for the remainder of the season. At $2500, Gates can easily return boom value and frees up considerable capital to be used elsewhere in your lineup. The Jets have allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends this season, which is tied for third-most in the NFL. Gates hasn’t broken 10 DraftKings points in a game this season, but this is a positive spot for speculation given that tight end production has become a central part of the Chargers attack over the second half of the season.
Busts
Quarterback
Tom Brady ($6900, QB2) vs. Buffalo Bills
Brady was held without a touchdown in the matchup between these two teams just two weeks ago, even in a game where Rob Gronkowski turned in a strong performance. The Bills have been one of the best teams in the NFL against the pass all season, allowing just three 300-yard games and only two games with multiple passing touchdowns allowed. Brady has been held under the 300-yard bonus in four straight games and three of those were against opposing pass defenses lesser than the Bills. Buffalo is much more beatable on the ground and I expect Bill Belichick to scheme toward the path of least resistance in this spot.
Running back
Mark Ingram ($8100, RB4) vs. Atlanta Falcons
This is an Alvin Kamara week. The Falcons are extremely susceptible to running back receiving production and Sean Payton knows it. Their 91 receptions allowed are tops in the league. In his injury-shortened game against the Falcons in Week 14, Kamara was targeted three times on the opening drive. The Falcons have only allowed five rushing touchdowns this season and are a top-12 defense against the position overall. I’m not sure either back hits 3x at their pricing this week in this matchup, but if one of them does, my money is on Kamara rather than Ingram.
Wide receiver
A.J. Green ($6700, WR6) vs. Detroit Lions
I’m not touching the Bengals star this week. The team is in full meltdown mode, scoring just two touchdowns in the past two games combined. Green still costs a premium and will have to post 20.1 DraftKings points to meet my boom criteria this week. He’s only hit that number three times this season and the Lions won’t make it easy on him, as they have allowed the third-fewest touchdown to wide receivers this season.
Tight end
Greg Olsen ($5200, TE4) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Olsen lit up the scoreboard against the Packers last week in what was easily his best performance of the season. The Buccaneers should prove to be a stiffer test, as they’ve only surrendered 15.6 DraftKings points (our 3x number for Olsen) to the tight end position in three games this season. The Buccaneers are the fourth-best team in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, but are the worst team in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to the wide receiver position. I expect the Panthers to exploit that rather than force Olsen the ball in a minus matchup.
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