Bold Predictions Week: A bold fantasy call at each position

(Welcome to PFF Fantasy’s Bold Predictions Week. All week long, our writers will offer up the boldest of predictions for the season to come. It’s easy to say Aaron Rodgers will be good; it’s harder to say Mike Glennon will be the No. 1 quarterback. Not that anyone is guessing that, but you get the idea. Check back all week for more.)

I’m probably not the ideal candidate for this series. I’m too frequently unaware of when I’m actually making a bold prediction, because, well, my predictions always feel perfectly reasonable to me. I’ve also always been overly cautious not to make a controversial statement just for the sake of it, and thus, my name is rarely mentioned among fantasy football’s greatest hot take artists.

The boldest prediction I’ve ever made was last season during the Wild Card Round of the playoffs, when I was especially high on Doug Baldwin’s fantasy potential at a $7,000 price tag on DraftKings. I laid out my reasoning, and sent a tweet that read, “Guys, if Doug Baldwin doesn’t lose his mind this week, I’m quitting fantasy and turning this into a cat meme account.” The tweet eventually gained traction and by the time the first half ended (with Baldwin scoring only 3.4 fantasy points), my Twitter notifications were ablaze with followers and friends talking trash. Luckily, Baldwin bailed me out by the end of the game, totaling 31 fantasy points on DraftKings, and saving my Twitter account.

Today, I’ll be making one bold call at each fantasy position. I can’t promise cat memes if these predictions turn out to be wrong, but they are still all predictions I believe in. And a good cat meme never hurt anybody.

Quarterback

The most profitable decision you can make in your dynasty leagues this offseason is trading for Dak Prescott.

Last season, Prescott finished sixth at the position in fantasy points, but appears to be priced in redraft leagues (ADP QB13) as though a sophomore slump is a foregone conclusion. With a tougher strength of schedule this season, it’s certainly possible we see some regression from Prescott, but it’s also possible we haven’t yet seen Prescott’s true potential. For years, fantasy analysts have been urging drafters to avoid rookie quarterbacks and target them in Year 2 or Year 3 instead. The data back this up — on average, rookie quarterbacks improve by 14.5 percent in fantasy points per game from their rookie to sophomore seasons. For Prescott, that would mean an additional 2.7 fantasy points per game. Looking at dynasty ADP, the 24-year-old Prescott’s ranking (QB10) makes even less sense.