Every fantasy draft season is filled with misses on the part of fantasy owners, whether it be through highly drafted players who flame out or under-drafted players who significantly overperform their ADP.
In the latter case, we then see a significant adjustment in season-to-season ADP, but how well do these players perform in the season after their ADP changes? Here, we identify the biggest risers by comparing historical ADP from the fantasy season (n) to the actual fantasy season (n+1). Let’s take a look at this group from last season to see where they finished within their position groups based on PPR scoring format.
Note: All ADP data comes courtesy of Fantasy Mojo’s data warehouse.
Biggest Fantasy ADP Risers from 2018 to 2019
| Player | Position | ADP 2018 | ADP 2019 | ADP Change | Position Rank ADP | Position PPR Finish | Difference |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | 224 | 90 | 134 | 5 | 19 | -14 |
| Dante Pettis | WR | 195 | 78 | 117 | 31 | 130 | -99 |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | 173 | 60 | 113 | 24 | 26 | -2 |
| Vance McDonald | TE | 183 | 76 | 107 | 9 | 29 | -20 |
| Jaylen Samuels | RB | 214 | 109 | 105 | 42 | 45 | -3 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | 124 | 19 | 105 | 12 | 8 | 4 |
| Christian Kirk | WR | 181 | 79 | 102 | 32 | 37 | -5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 133 | 33 | 100 | 1 | 8 | -7 |
| Jared Cook | TE | 159 | 66 | 93 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | 144 | 51 | 93 | 20 | 2 | 18 |
| Dede Westbrook | WR | 193 | 104 | 89 | 43 | 41 | 2 |
| James Washington | WR | 201 | 113 | 88 | 45 | 53 | -8 |
| D.J. Moore | WR | 145 | 57 | 88 | 22 | 16 | 6 |
| Austin Hooper | TE | 175 | 89 | 86 | 11 | 6 | 5 |
| Kenny Golladay | WR | 129 | 45 | 84 | 18 | 9 | 9 |
| O.J. Howard | TE | 126 | 47 | 79 | 4 | 28 | -24 |
| George Kittle | TE | 100 | 21 | 79 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | 109 | 30 | 79 | 14 | 2 | 12 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | 168 | 95 | 73 | 37 | 19 | 18 |
| Donte Moncrief | WR | 210 | 140 | 70 | 51 | 170 | -119 |
| Mike Williams | WR | 133 | 63 | 70 | 25 | 40 | -15 |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | 124 | 54 | 70 | 21 | 13 | 8 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | 204 | 136 | 68 | 18 | 10 | 8 |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | 151 | 88 | 63 | 38 | 4 | 34 |
| Kalen Ballage | RB | 200 | 138 | 62 | 53 | 68 | -15 |
| Nyheim Hines | RB | 189 | 127 | 62 | 50 | 42 | 8 |
| Latavius Murray | RB | 137 | 77 | 60 | 34 | 28 | 6 |
| DeSean Jackson | WR | 205 | 149 | 56 | 55 | 125 | -70 |
| James Conner | RB | 70 | 14 | 56 | 7 | 35 | -28 |
| Eric Ebron | TE | 123 | 68 | 55 | 8 | 26 | -18 |
| Matt Ryan | QB | 150 | 96 | 54 | 6 | 11 | -5 |
| Geronimo Allison | WR | 167 | 114 | 53 | 46 | 86 | -40 |
| Robert Woods | WR | 99 | 47 | 52 | 19 | 14 | 5 |
| Marlon Mack | RB | 82 | 32 | 50 | 16 | 22 | -6 |
Volatility is the characteristic that most closely sums up this list. Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay and Austin Ekeler were league-winners for a majority of their fantasy owners. Others had less-than-stellar results, as only eight players came close to their ADP value.
Looking at historical data from 2016 to present, it seems like the 2019 season had a higher percentage of hits from this category than in previous seasons. Digging in further, we see that the majority of quick risers failed to live up to their lofty ADP expectations by the time the season was done. I will spare you the massive data tables going back to 2016, but grouping and summarizing this historical data into the below data table gives an interesting perspective.
This dataset consists of all players who had an ADP rise of more than 50 places during the season n+1. This is broken down by percentage of total players who fit into one of three categories:
- Players who outperformed their position ADP by more than five places for WR/RB and three places for QB/TE
- Players who had season-long performances within five places of their ADP for WR/RB and three places for QB/TE
- Players who underperformed their position ADP by more than five places for WR/RB and three places for QB/TE
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