Fantasy Football: Best picks in each AFC division

• RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals, AFC North: Brown possesses a three-down talent profile and has shown an ability to remain healthy through hefty workloads.

• RB Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs, AFC West: Pacheco takes on a featured running back role for the first time in his career.

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Estimated reading time: 10 minutes

Variables like talent, offensive environment and average draft position (ADP) must all be weighed when identifying players with noteworthy fantasy football outcomes, both in half-points-per-reception (half-PPR) and PPR scoring formats. Some NFL divisions are stronger than others but worthwhile fantasy football assets can be found in all eight. The article below details the AFC North, AFC South, AFC East and AFC West divisions’ best fantasy football draft picks. 

RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals, AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals second-year running back Chase Brown possesses a high-upside, three-down profile, plays in an elite offense and is available via an affordable Rounds 9-10 borderline pick as the RB38 in both half-PPR and PPR scoring formats. He is the AFC North’s best fantasy football draft pick. His 63.9 PFF offense grade ranks 64th among 93 NFL running backs with at least 90 offensive snaps in 2023.

As detailed in “Running backs with undeserved ADPs, free agent-signee running back Zack Moss is a capable rusher and subpar pass-catcher, though even Moss’ supposed rushing strengths hold up flimsily against Brown. Moss averaged 0.2 missed tackles forced per rushing attempt last year, with Brown hot on his heels at 0.18. Brown also outclasses Moss in both yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.3 to 2.8) and explosive run play rate (11.4% to 10.3%). Brown’s latter two metrics rank top 20 among 78 NFL running backs with at least 40 rushing attempts in 2023. 

Brown’s small-sample receiving profile suggests elite results are possible with a three-down role. As noted in PFF senior fantasy analyst Nathan Jahnke’s preseason takeaways piece, Brown fended off Cincinnati’s long-time backup pass-catching specialists, running backs Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans, taking first-team snaps in third-and-long situations. The development suggests Brown already owns the high-value role, operating as quarterback Joe Burrow’s primary pass catcher out of the backfield. Williams earned a 51.1 PFF receiving grade last year while Evans earned a 52.0 PFF receiving grade. 

Among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 280 dropbacks in 2023, Burrow’s 76.8 PFF passing grade ranks 17th.

Among 68 NFL running backs with at least 15 targets and 35 receiving snaps in 2023, Brown ranks top five in eight receiving metrics, including No. 1 rankings in target rate (42.9%), yards per route run (YPRR, 4.46) and yards after the catch per reception (13.7). His 81.1 PFF receiving grade ranks fourth. Moss comparatively ranks 30th or worse in seven of eight categories. His 43.9 PFF receiving grade ranks 66th.

Brown has been dogged by concerns over his small rookie season pass-protection sample but Brown entered the NFL as one the best pass-protection prospects in the Power Five. Among 31 Power Five running backs with at least 450 offensive snaps in 2022, Brown’s 65.3 PFF pass-blocking grade ranks third and he “earned a 69.2 PFF pass-blocking grade or better in four-of-six games where he recorded a pass-protection snap. He was beaten by a defender twice all year.” Brown earned a 72.9 PFF pass-blocking grade on three preseason pass-protection snaps thus far. 

Though Brown can be expected to hold up well in pass protection, he will undoubtedly have the freedom to regularly run routes on early downs; Jahnke ranks Cincinnati’s offensive line as the 14th-best pass-blocking unit and 19th overall. 

Standing 5-foot-9, 215 pounds with a 31.7 body-mass index (BMI) rating, Brown is built for a high-volume, three-down role. Brown totaled 331 rushing attempts and 32 targets in his final, 2022 college season at Illinois. Aside from injuring his leg after falling “awkwardly” while being tackled out of bounds in the season finale, he remained healthy through the monstrous workload.

Cincinnati’s 2023 offense ranks 12th among NFL teams in positive expected points added (EPA) rate (43.7%) and 11th in success rate (34.3%) despite losing Burrow to a season-ending scapholunate ligament wrist injury in Week 11. The unit should push for top-five finishes in 2024.

Brown is the AFC North’s best fantasy football pick in 2024.

WR Tank Dell, Houston Texans, AFC South

Houston Texans second-year wide receiver Tank Dell is the AFC South’s best fantasy football draft pick thanks to promising preseason usage, an elite rookie season receiving profile and a highly efficient offensive environment. Fantasy managers can conveniently draft Dell in the sixth as the WR29 in both half-PPR and PPR scoring formats. His 83.3 PFF offense grade ties for eighth among 279 NFL preseason wide receivers with at least 12 offensive snaps. 

Dell suffered a season-ending fibula fracture on December 3rd, 2023 and was shockingly shot in the leg in April 2024. He reportedly recovered well from both incidents and looks spry in his first-team preseason usage. 

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As detailed in Jahnke’s preseason Week 2 takeaways piece, Dell lined up both out-wide and in the slot this preseason, and while he has yet to play in two-wide receiver, two-tight end sets (12 personnel), he did play in two-wide receiver, two-running back snaps (21 personnel). Houston will employ 12 personnel more frequently than 21 personnel in the regular season but the two-wide receiver set usage remains a net positive. 

Dell suited up for 11 games in 2023, producing three PPR WR2 finishes and three PPR WR1 finishes.

Houston’s No. 1 wide receiver Nico Collins will likely retain his alpha pass-catcher role but offseason acquisition, No. 2 wide receiver Stefon Diggs’ role is within Dell’s grasp. Dell should routinely turn in weekly WR3 results while battling Diggs for the No. 2 role. 

Dell and Diggs’ 2023 receiving data among 88 NFL wide receivers with at least 320 receiving snaps in 2023:

Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and quarterback C.J. Stroud carved up defenses in their 2023, inaugural season together, ranking 14th in one-score-game passing rate (61.1%) and third in explosive pass play rate (16.7%) among NFL teams. The duo should be even better in year two. Stroud’s 80.4 PFF passing grade ranks 14th among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 280 dropbacks in 2023.

Dell is the AFC South’s best fantasy football draft pick. 

RB De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins, AFC East

Miami Dolphins second-year running back De’Von Achane enters 2024 via a 2.08, RB10 half-PPR ADP and 3.01, RB11 PPR ADP coming off a record-setting 2023 rookie season. Boosted by an elite offense, he is already among the position’s most efficient and explosive producers; his ADP is suppressed only by potentially outdated health-related concerns. Fantasy managers should eagerly chase his season-winning upside. He is the AFC East’s best fantasy football draft pick and his 92.1 PFF offense grade ranks first among 64 NFL running backs with at least 200 offensive snaps in 2023.

Among 2023 NFL teams, Miami’s offense ranks seventh in EPA per play (0.048), sixth in positive EPA rate (46.5%) and fifth in success rate (37.3%).

As detailed in “Committee backfields to Ttarget,” “Achane’s 7.5 yards per rushing attempt rank No. 1 among 50 NFL running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts by a 2.3-yard margin while his 3.9 yards after contact per rushing attempt led by 1.0. His 0.28 missed tackles forced per rushing attempt” ranks third and his 93.1 PFF rushing grade ranks first.

Achane proved himself an exceptional target earner in year one, ranking eighth in target rate (23.0%), fourth in deep-target rate (4.7%) and first in slot-target rate (11.2%) among 62 NFL running backs with at least 100 receiving snaps. He promisingly earned a positive aDot (0.4 yards), ranking 23rd while averaging 1.14 YPRR (25th). His 9.4 yards after the catch per reception rank 13th and his 77.7 PFF receiving grade ranks seventh.

Achane’s speed is well-known though fantasy managers may experience trepidation regarding his size. 

De'Von Achane reached a top speed of 21.76 mph on his 76-yard TD run, the 2nd-fastest speed reached by a ball carrier this season.

Achane is now responsible for the two fastest speeds of the season; Achane reached 21.93 mph on his 67-yard TD run in Week 3.

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Achane measured 5-foot-8.5, 188 pounds at the 2023 NFL combine, registering a 28.2 on the BMI scale. He appeared noticeably more muscular in April after packing on mass this offseason. Per Doctor of Physical Therapy (DPT) Edwin Porras, running backs with a BMI between 29.0 and 33.0 experience the same number of annual games missed, suggesting Achane was potentially 0.8 BMI points away from improved durability. At Achane’s current height, he clears the 29.0 threshold by increasing his weight by just six pounds, up to 194.

Achane suffered an August AC joint sprain and battled recurring MCL issues last year so concerns over durability are not unwarranted but it is reasonable to expect sustained weight in the mid-190s with his college track and field career no longer impacting his workouts.

Achane totaled five PPR RB1 finishes in 10 active games through Weeks 1-17, including four finishes in the top five. He was active for Miami’s final seven games, from Weeks 13-Super Wild Card Weekend, twice hitting 18-plus touches and remained injury-free. 

Achane offers a season-winning profile available at the Rounds 2-3 turn. He is the AFC East’s best fantasy football draft pick.

RB Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs, AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco finished as the Weeks 1-17 RB13 in both half-PPR and PPR scoring formats despite being stuck in a run-centric role, ceding snaps to other running backs on passing downs and in scoring position. Pacheco is set to take on a three-down role in Kansas City’s elite offense after demonstrating requisite receiving and proficient pass-protection skills last year. Fantasy managers are drafting Pacheco as a late second-round pick in both formats; the half-PPR RB11 and PPR RB10. His 79.9 PFF offense grade ranks eighth among 33 NFL running backs with at least 475 offensive snaps in 2023. 

Pacheco faces less in-house competition than he did in his first two NFL seasons with veteran running back Jerick McKinnon no longer on the roster. Kansas City head coach Andy Reid also appears to be hosting a three-way competition for the No. 2 role while featuring Pacheco on 100.0% of first-team snaps in the preseason Week 1 and allowing Pacheco to stay on-field for two third- and fourth-and-long repetitions in preseason Week 2. Janke’s recaps for preseason Week 1 and preseason Week 2 cover the No. 2 battle in-depth. McKinnon’s 63.1 PFF offense grade ranks 54th among 64 NFL running backs with at least 200 offensive snaps in 2023.

Pacheco earned his 2023 finish as fantasy football’s premier RB2 despite limited access to high-value backfield snaps.

Pacheco’s 2023 situational snap counts among Kansas City running backs:

Pacheco improved his target rate from 10.3% in year one to 17.0% in year two last year while maintaining better than a 90.0% catch rate in both seasons. Pacheco’s 0.89 YPRR across two seasons leaves some to be desired, tying for 23rd among 33 NFL running backs with at least 425 receiving snaps from 2022-2023. His 9.2 yards after the catch per reception rank third but this number could actually increase in 2024. Pacheco dealt with recurring shoulder issues in 2023, needing both offseason and in-season (Week 13, 2023) surgery to correct the issue. Whether it affected his ability to play through contact remains to be seen but his performance can reasonably be expected to improve in 2024. 

Pacheco significantly improved his pass protection skills last year, going from a 30.6 PFF pass-blocking grade as a rookie to a 67.4 PFF pass-blocking grade last year. Among 33 NFL running backs with at least 475 offensive snaps in 2023, the latter grade ranks seventh. He produced a nearly identical 67.1 PFF pass-blocking grade on his lone preseason pass-blocking snap thus far. 

Kansas City’s potent offense averaged the second-highest one-score-game passing rate (67.1%) among NFL teams while totaling the 12th-most regular season red zone snaps (184) and the ninth-best scoring drive rate (40.5%). Pacheco benefits from all three numbers.

Pacheco could push for a top-five positional finish in 2024. He is the AFC West’s best fantasy football draft pick.