Fantasy Football: Analytics strengths and weaknesses for the top 2024 rookie tight ends

• Brock Bowers and his elite production profile: The Georgia tight end makes a case to be a potential top-10 pick in the NFL draft.

• Ja’Tavion Sanders earns strong marks as a receiver: The Texas product figures to get drafted on Day 2 and could be a fantasy contributor in the right situation.

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With the NFL draft right around the corner, the tight end class is drawing some interest from the fantasy community, particularly at the top. 

While Georgia’s tight end is garnering the most attention of the group, there are some interesting names to keep an eye on outside of the first round as well. Taking all the tight end prospects since 2018 and incorporating their career college production will allow us to compare how the top of this year’s class compares to those of years past.

• Strengths are considered production data points where a particular tight end scored the highest in comparison to the prospect pool dating back to 2018.
• Weaknesses are the areas where a particular tight end scored lower relative to the prospect pool since 2018.
• This article will be a spotlight on the top five tight ends on the PFF big board, with a look at some of the other standouts at the position using the same model coming soon.

Brock Bowers, Georgia

• No. 1 ranked tight end on the PFF big board
• PFF Mock Draft Simulator ADP: 12.6

Bowers enters this year’s NFL draft as one of the most highly-touted prospects for his position in recent years, even compared to recent top-10 picks Kyle Pitts and T.J. Hockenson. Bowers has earned the highest career PFF receiving grade, yards per route run and yards per target of the three and is making a case for a top-10 pick himself in this draft.

Bowers’ overall production is about as good as it gets for the position, posting over 2,500 receiving yards over three seasons and a first down/touchdown rate of 14.6% (95th percentile). Bowers also dominated from a yards-per-route run perspective, regardless of alignment. Specifically, from an in-line alignment, Bowers posted 3.83 YPRR (99th percentile), highlighting how much of a matchup nightmare he can be on a consistent basis from the most common tight end alignment. 

Bowers’ yards per target was also a particularly elite metric, delivering a 99th percentile 11.3 in that regard, which speaks to his ability to make the most out of his opportunities in combination with his 94th percentile yards after catch per reception (8.50). 

Brooks’ career college analytics strengths: 

There are only a couple of areas where Bowers didn’t perform at a very high-end level across most receiving metrics. His adjusted separation rate, which looks at open targets on passes 10-plus yards downfield, was only average in comparison to historical prospects dating back to 2018. Stiffness in his cuts on routes was highlighted in the PFF Draft Guide as a reason why he had a lower separation rate against single coverage, and that translates here as well.

It can also be argued that Bowers is seeing a lot more attention when he’s on the field so there’s less room for him to move, which could also explain why his overall explosive play rate is only just above average. All things told, he boasts an elite profile and is deserving of being in the conversation with past top-10 picks like Pitts and Hockenson.

Bowers’ college analytics weaknesses:

Ja’Tavion Sanders, Texas

• No. 2 ranked tight end on the PFF big board
• PFF Mock Draft Simulator ADP: 53.8

The expected draft capital differential between Bowers and Sanders is substantial, as is their ranking on the PFF big board. However, Sanders is going to push for second-round draft capital in 2024, which will be of interest for fantasy purposes. He has good speed to be a vertical threat at the next level and his strong 38.4% explosive play rate (76th percentile) is a testament to that. Considering he’s still just 21 years old and far from a finished product, it’s also been promising that he’s continued to improve his overall offensive and receiving grades in the past two seasons. 

Sanders profiles as a Day 2 pick and a strong receiving tight end with the ability to produce at a high level with help from his high-end athleticism. Sanders isn’t big for the position and that contributes to some of his issues in pass protection and run-blocking, but he has great hands and receiving ability that will hopefully help him overcome other issues and stay on the field in the NFL early in his career.

Sanders’ career college analytics strengths: 

Much like Bowers, Sanders’ separation rate downfield isn’t elite by any means, but this is less of a concern for the tight end position coming out as these players continue to develop and learn more nuanced route-running abilities to help with that in the NFL. 

While Sanders was particularly effective from an in-line position, he produced less successful yards per route run totals from other positions on the field, including from the slot and out wide. He wasn’t used as much in those alignments as Bowers was, for example, but depending on the team he goes to in the NFL, it may be an area he’ll need to get better at in order to contribute to the offense.

Sanders’ college analytics weaknesses:

Erick All, Iowa

• No. 3 ranked tight end on the PFF big board
• PFF Mock Draft Simulator ADP: 164.3

Among the 2024 tight end class, All has the smallest career sample size of work as a receiver (496 routes), but he’s risen to the No. 3 ranked tight end on the PFF big board. With the smaller sample size taken into context, All was still able to deliver some impressive career numbers, including a career-best 2.62 yards per route run (85th percentile) in 2023 in his first season with the Hawkeyes. 

All has also done a really nice job earning targets for himself when he is on the field. Part of that ability to earn targets has to do with his ability to get open, earning an 89th percentile mark in open target rate for passes 10-plus yards downfield (44.7%). All has a case for an early Day 3 pick in the NFL Draft, though there are still some concerns that may keep that from happening.

All’s career college analytics strengths: 

On top of coming off a season-ending ACL tear in October of 2023, there are other areas that stand out as potential red flags for All’s college career. The first is that his 7.4 yards per target is quite low for a player who earned a high rate of targets per route run. The optimistic viewpoint here is that while there aren’t many fantasy-relevant tight ends that emerge after posting such a low yards per target figure in college, one who did was Sam LaPorta (also out of Iowa), as he posted 7.5 yards per target on a slightly higher target rate (0.25).

All’s college analytics weaknesses:

Cade Stover, Ohio State

• No. 4 ranked tight end on the PFF big board
• PFF Mock Draft Simulator ADP: 111.3

Stover has steadily improved as a receiving tight end in his past three years at Ohio State after transitioning from an outside linebacker in high school. Through two seasons as a starter, Stover has delivered five touchdowns in each year with nearly 1,000 receiving yards and just two drops on over 100 targets. 

Stover’s efficiency with his opportunities stands out as a key highlight to his game, earning well above average marks in yards per target (9.8) and yards after the catch per reception (6.48). It was particularly important that Stover deliver when targeted considering the competition for targets in Ohio State’s offense.

Stover’s career college analytics strengths: 

Stover’s yards per route run, targets per route run and first down/touchdown rate are all a stark difference from his yards per target number. This can be attributed to the competition that he had for targets in Ohio State’s offense, including Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. The expectation that Stover would be able to post high-end per-route numbers with those guys on the field was just not going to be likely. That being said, it’s at least promising that he performed well when he did see targets and made the most of his opportunities, which is why he is projected as a potential early Day 3 pick.

Stover’s college analytics weaknesses:

Ben Sinnott, Kansas State

• No. 5 ranked tight end on the PFF big board
• PFF Mock Draft Simulator ADP: 137.2

Sinnott posted one of the best Relative Athletic Scores among tight end prospects in recent history and combined with his decent production profile, he could be in the range of a Round 4 pick in the NFL draft. Sinnott’s athletic ability translated into his career explosive play rate of 38.3%, which ranked in the 75th percentile among prospects since 2018.

Sinnott spent the large majority of his passing down snaps from an in-line alignment, delivering a strong 2.01 yards per route run for his career out of that position. However, it’s noted in the PFF Draft Guide that some of the appeal with Sinnott is his versatility in that he can line up all over the field and be effective. He also earned the strongest PFF pass-blocking grade of his career in 2023 (72.8), making more of a case for him to contribute in all situations and formations. 

Sinnott’s career college analytics strengths: 

Sinnott improved his receiving game quite a bit in 2023, though relative to his peers, he wasn’t nearly as productive from the slot as he was from an in-line position. While his career target rate is also on the lower end, it was another encouraging sign in 2023 that he greatly improved in that regard, even finishing second on the team in total targets (73), receptions (48), and leading the team in receiving yards (669) and touchdowns (six).

Sinnott’s college analytics weaknesses: