Waiting to take a quarterback is almost always the right decision. I say almost because last season I had an early draft, and I waited, and I took Tony Romo and Teddy Bridgewater. #fail
Epic disasters like the one I just described are rare, but more common is the situation when you take the wrong late-round guy who stays on the field, but doesn’t get you points. You were a lot happier if you took Dak Prescott in the 12th round, rather than Eli Manning in the eighth. That’s why it’s important to know which late-round guys should be avoided entirely.
Here are five quarterback busts to avoid in your early drafts, regardless of if they “fall” to you. I’m going to repeat this mantra all offseason, “Just because they’re cheap, doesn’t mean they’re a value.”
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (Overall ADP: 68, seventh QB)
In 2015, Newton was by far the No. 1 fantasy QB. His 0.71 points per dropback was the second-highest overall average of any quarterback over the last 10 years. To illustrate how high Newton’s was, Matt Ryan led the league in that statistic in 2016, at 0.59. However, Newton’s fantasy value took a hard hit last season. His 65.4 adjusted completion percentage was a league-worst. He threw 19 touchdowns to 14 interceptions. In 2015, he carried the ball 132 times for 636 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2016, he carried the ball 90 times for 359 yards and five touchdowns. To make matters worse, Newton underwent surgery on his throwing shoulder at the end of March and won’t throw with the team for at least 16 weeks. That puts him right at training camp, but it’s difficult to imagine his accuracy getting better without a full off-season program. His ADP is way too high for him to return any value.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: 81, 10th QB)
Let’s assume Roethlisberger will play in 2017. His talks of retirement have pretty much been blown off by both his coach and all other coaches in the league. However, you can’t play Roethlisberger in half of the games in each season. Roethlisberger missed six games over the last two seasons due to an MCL sprain in 2015 and a torn meniscus in 2016. In five of the 14 games he played last season, he scored less than 15 fantasy points. One of those games was against the Browns. You can’t even trust this guy against the Browns and yet he’s the 10th QB going off the board? The main issue that everyone will point to during the offseason is Roethlisberger’s home and away splits. In 2016, he threw 20 touchdowns and only five interceptions with a 70.8 completion percentage when playing at home. Away, he threw nine touchdowns to eight interceptions with a 59.4 completion rate. Half of his games will always be away. Buyer beware.
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