(The Fantasy 5 is a quick-hit wrap-up of some of the biggest news topics of the day for fantasy football players, giving you advice you need to improve your team.)
For the last few weeks, I’ve felt like a little kid on a long car ride. “Are we there yet? Are we there yet?” Mile markers ticking by with no scenery to enjoy. No license plate bingo. No I spy. No padiddle. Nothing. Just mind-numbing boredom.
Such is the NFL after mini-camp breaks. We still have a ways to go until we get to training camp, but that doesn’t matter. Tomorrow is one of the most important days of the year. Yes, it’s the annual celebration of independence in the United States. That means barbecue, fireworks, adult beverages, and, most importantly, fantasy football.
The fourth of July marks the unofficial start to the fantasy football season, so let’s hit the ground running. We have some exciting things coming over the next two months here at PFF, and that all kicks off in just two days. In the meantime, here are the five things fantasy players need to know from around the NFL this past weekend.
1. Dalvin Cook is ahead in the Vikings running back competition
This comes from Latavius Murray, who talked about the Minnesota backfield battle on the NFL Network’s Good Morning Football last week. He noted that his missed time due to injuries has given Cook a head-start on the lead back job. We at PFF Fantasy agree.
While Murray put up double-digit touchdowns last season, he managed just 788 yards on the ground on 195 carries. That’s just 4.0 yards per carry despite running behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. Teammates Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington each averaged well over 5.0 yards per carry behind the same offensive line.
Cook saw his draft stock fall following a lackluster pre-draft process and negative off-field revelations, but he was extremely productive at Florida State. He offers a three-down skillset, but the Vikings are almost guaranteed to use a committee in their backfield. Cook is likely to handle lead duties with Murray getting short-yardage work and Jerick McKinnon being used in passing situations. The committee along with the Vikings’ questionable offensive line caps Cook’s Year 1 fantasy upside. He’s best viewed as a risk/reward RB2.
2. Avoid the Ravens tight ends in fantasy.
Dennis Pitta offered an extremely low ceiling last season, but his heavy target volume ended up producing consistent TE2-or-better numbers all year. In the wake of his season-ending hip injury, there doesn’t appear to be anyone worth targeting as a Pitta replacement in the Ravens’ tight end corps.
Former second-rounder Maxx Williams is a perennial “maybe this year” guy, but he’s still recovering from knee surgery and could open the season on the PUP list. That would cost Williams at least the first six weeks of the season. Ben Watson is entering his age-36 season and coming off an Achilles injury, neither of which bode well for him regaining the fantasy relevance he had two years ago. And Darren Waller was suspended for the year again.
That leaves Crockett Gilmore and Nick Boyle as the two remaining tight ends who aren’t injured, old, or suspended. The two have combined for 75 career catches, which is 11 fewer than Pitta’s 2016 total. We might see one of these guys surface on the DFS radar at some point this year, but neither is a viable re-draft option. Pitta’s targets are likely to spill over to the Ravens’ wide receivers, where Jeremy Maclin could benefit as a reasonably high-volume slot receiver. Maclin doesn’t offer touchdown upside, but he’s a reasonably high-floor WR3 option.
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3. Is Ryan Mathews still in the picture in Philly?
Darren Sproles expects Mathews to split carries with LeGarrette Blount this season. Come again? Mathews is recovering from neck surgery and is widely expected to be released this summer. Sproles is certainly plugged into the Eagles inner workings, but fantasy players shouldn’t take his comments too seriously. Blount remains the favorite early-down back. He should be considered an RB3 in PPR leagues with a boost to RB2 status in standard scoring leagues.
4. Dorial Green-Beckham is out of the picture in Philly.
DGB, we hardly knew ye. The Eagles waived the former second-round pick on Friday following a one-year stint with the team where he caught 36 balls for 392 yards and two scores. A physical specimen, Green-Beckham entered the NFL very green following a meandering college career that was marred by multiple off-field incidents. Once hyped among those in dynasty circles, Green-Beckham's long-term stock is plummeting. He’s likely to surface on another NFL team, but at this point he’s at best on the fringes of the dynasty radar.
5. Browns quarterback update.
Not much has changed in the Cleveland quarterback competition, as Hue Jackson has yet to name a starter and isn’t likely to do so until training camp. The starting job will likely come down to Cody Kessler and rookie DeShone Kizer. Kessler appeared to have a sizable lead heading into OTAs, but Kizer has closed the gap thanks to improved accuracy and a better deep ball.
For fantasy purposes, this is a lot like the Denver quarterback battle. Regardless of who wins the job, that player isn’t likely to be fantasy relevant in one-QB leagues. However, just like with Paxton Lynch in Denver, fantasy players would benefit more from Kizer being under center. Yes, the rookie will make mistakes, but his bigger arm opens things up for the Cleveland offense and will help boost the fantasy value of Corey Coleman, Kenny Britt, and David Njoku. Of course that isn’t an exponential increase, but these players will have higher ceilings with Kizer under center.
Regardless of the outcome at quarterback for the Browns this season, Kizer remains a “buy” candidate in dynasty leagues. Not only does he possess a big arm, but he also adds fantasy value with his legs. Kizer ran for 18 touchdowns in two seasons at Notre Dame.
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