• Jayden Daniels could break fantasy football: Daniels scrambles at a rate far higher than any other quarterback, which could lead to elite fantasy production.
• Sean Payton’s running backs have great value: Payton’s running backs have consistently finished among the top-16 fantasy running backs even if they are in a three-man committee.
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Estimated reading time: 11 minutes
These five potential breakout players have youth on their side, an ADP from the fifth to the 10th rounds and are ranked notably higher than their ADP.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Monday, September 2
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (ADP: 8.07, From consensus ADP)
Quarterbacks who are excellent ball carriers have consistently been valuable in fantasy football. Justin Fields was QB6 in 2022 thanks to his 1,143 rushing yards despite only throwing for 2,242 passing yards. Jalen Hurts averaged over 23 fantasy points per start in 2020 despite completing 51.9% of his passes. That same season, Taysom Hill averaged 21.6 fantasy points per game during his four starts at quarterback.
Daniels has a chance to be a better runner and passer than those players in his first season.
Daniels achieved a 91.5 PFF rushing grade throughout his college career, which is the best among Power-Five quarterbacks over the last decade, joining Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams. He similarly has the most avoided tackles while Jackson and Hurts ranked in the top five. Not only was the quality of his running better, but he chose to scramble far more than any other quarterback has. He scrambled 258 times throughout his college career, which was also the most for a quarterback in the last decade. The next closest was 180. This could lead to more rushing attempts and big runs from Daniels than other rushing quarterbacks. Every quarterback with 100 or more rushing attempts in the last decade has averaged at least 18 fantasy points per start, which should easily be within Daniels' reach.
His passing shouldn’t be overlooked either, as he has the best mechanics of any passer in the class. He received a respectable 84.0 career passing grade in college. We shouldn’t expect him to be as good of a passer as Hurts is now, but ideally, he is better than Hurts as a rookie.
The Commanders added offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Kyler Murray was a top-12 fantasy quarterback in points per game in all four seasons when Kingsbury was his head coach, including his 2019 rookie season. Kingsbury’s offense should be an asset to Daniels, or at least not hold him back. He is being selected as one of the worst options among fantasy starting quarterbacks, but he should be closer to the middle of the starters with the upside to finish among the top three quarterbacks.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: 7.12, From consensus ADP)
Warren, who went undrafted in 2022, quickly secured the Steelers' third-down job. Despite this, the team did not give him many opportunities in the passing game, as he recorded either one or zero receptions in half of his games.
He played a limited number of snaps but was the fifth-highest-graded running back in 2022, partly due to his ability to force missed tackles. Warren also excelled as a runner, breaking long gains despite averaging fewer than five carries per game.
In 2023, Warren's utilization increased significantly, recording more carries per game, more routes per game and a higher target rate. His rushing numbers improved with the larger sample size, and his receiving performance generally increased, as well.
Last season, Warren served as the primary third-down and two-minute drill back. He was the only running back in that role to consistently become a fantasy starter. His main competition remains Najee Harris, as it has been throughout his career.
Warren played more on early downs last season than the previous year, and his playing time could continue to increase. Warren's performance has been significantly better than Harris' in almost every situation, though he has only a slight lead against eight-man boxes. Harris has outperformed Warren on zone plays but nothing else.
The Steelers signed Arthur Smith to be their offensive coordinator. Smith loves running the ball and targeting running backs, which should mean significant fantasy value for the team's running backs. The downside is that he rarely had a clear lead running back in Atlanta — even when it might have been warranted — suggesting this could remain a two-man committee. Ideally, Warren could take on the Bijan Robinson role from last year while Harris takes the Tyler Allgeier role.
Warren has a lot of talent and has earned more playing time as his career has progressed. With a new offensive coordinator, there are many possibilities for his role. However, his main challenge is his poor performance on zone runs, which are a favorite of Arthur Smith.
Warren suffered an injury in the second preseason game that could cost him the first week or two of the season. Expect his ADP to drop, allowing him to be a value still.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos (ADP: 8.02)
In Week 4 of the 2022 season, Willams finally became the feature back fantasy managers were waiting for, playing 23-of-25 first-half snaps. He then tore his ACL and LCL on the first play of the second half, putting an end to his season.
Williams returned in 2023, but he wasn’t the same player. He avoided tackles at half the rate of the previous season and wasn’t breaking big plays as much. Sean Payton has stated he knows historically it takes two seasons for a player with the injuries Williams had to completely heal, so it doesn’t sound like the coaching staff will hold 2023 against him.
Last season, Williams was in a three-man committee. Samaje Perine was the clear third-down and two-minute drill back most of the season. Williams was the primary player on early downs, at the goal line and in short-yardage situations. Jaleel McLaughlin was the secondary player in those situations.
Audric Estime was drafted in the fifth round. Typically, veteran running backs don’t need to worry too much about a fifth-round rookie, but Estime complicates the situation. Estime played the same role at Notre Dame that Williams and McLaughlin played last season.
Williams currently remains at the top of the depth chart. He started the Broncos' first preseason game, playing the first 10 minutes in everything except the clear passing situations, which went to Perine. In the regular season, one or both of the backups could rotate in and there is still a chance one of them takes over as the starter, but for now, Williams is still expected to be the lead back.
After two preseason games, it’s clear Williams remains the starter. He’s the group's only running back to play with the first-team offense and not play with the second-team. It seems like Perine is the odd man out on the roster, which could lead to more receiving opportunities for Williams.
Sean Payton has a long history with fantasy-relevant running backs. From 2011-2021, he had one running back in the top-16 fantasy finish with an average finish of RB8. While in recent years it was Alvin Kamara as the feature back, the Saints often had a three-man committee with some combination of Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram II and Kamara. Over those 11 seasons, the Saints targeted running backs more than any other team. The Broncos' running backs didn’t have the same success as the Saints, but they kept up the receiving tradition by targeting running backs the most last season.
Williams has one of the largest realistic range of options for a fantasy running back. There is a chance he leads all running backs in receptions as well as avoided tackles per rushing attempt, culminating in a strong fantasy season. There is also a chance he doesn’t make the Broncos roster and spends the season on someone’s practice squad. There are plenty of possible scenarios in between.
Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 6.01)
Rice made an immediate impact in his first game, recording 29 yards and a touchdown on three receptions. Despite Kansas City's inconsistency at the position and Rice's impressive per-play performance, he didn't play more than 55% of the Chiefs' offensive snaps until Week 7.
Rice continued to excel on a per-play basis with this larger sample of snaps. By Week 14, he began receiving playing time comparable to a typical starting wide receiver, playing at least 75% of Kansas City's offensive snaps from Weeks 14-17. During this period, he ranked eighth in fantasy points among wide receivers. In the playoffs, Rice played at least 75% of Kanas City's offensive snaps in three of four games, averaging 6.5 receptions for 65.5 yards per game against some of the NFL's best defenses.
Rice is potentially facing a suspension following his arrest after a car accident. The most recent reports say he won’t be set on the commissioner’s exempt list and won’t be suspended until the legal situation plays out, and that is unlikely to be finished this season. His ADP has begun skyrocketing on best ball platforms, while redraft platforms have slowly but surely started to catch up. He is the best value on some of those platforms at the moment.
Rice was used uniquely last season: He was the primary X receiver in two-receiver sets and the primary slot receiver in three-receiver sets. This is the best combination of roles a wide receiver can have; CeeDee Lamb is the only other receiver expected to have that role this season.
Rice's primary competition for targets remains Travis Kelce. The Chiefs retained most of their wide receiver rotation from last season, except for Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Richie James. They upgraded with Hollywood Brown and first-round pick Xavier Worthy, both of whom add speed and the ability to separate, likely leading to more deep passes. Fortunately, their skill sets differ enough from Rice's that they won't compete heavily for the same targets. The Chiefs have a history of easing in rookie wide receivers, as seen with Rice last year and Skyy Moore the year before, so we might not see much of Worthy early in the season.
Through two preseason games, Rice has played 23-of-24 snaps with the starters, including having six targets on 17 routes. If Rice can maintain his 25.5% target rate with increased snaps, it would be excellent for his fantasy value. However, it might decrease slightly as the Chiefs emphasize deep throws more often.
Rice finished as WR27 and was a top-36 wide receiver in nearly 70% of his games despite playing less than 70% of Kansas City's offensive snaps in all but four games. If you’re in a league where others haven’t fully kept up with the news, he is the easiest draft pick to make all draft regardless of where you’re picking in the fifth round.
Editor's note: For a more complete look on Rice this season, check out his full Player Profile.
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: 7.07)
Ferguson was a Dallas Cowboys fourth-round draft pick 2022 to serve as Dalton Schultz‘s backup. The former Wisconsin Badger’ played well enough on a per-route basis to earn the starting job in 2023 while Schultz left for the Houston Texans.
His per-route metrics regressed slightly, but he played a much higher percentage of Dallas' offensive snaps. He’s generally played well in any situation outside of when he needs to line up at tight end. He stood out against man coverage, where he ranked in the 90th percentile in yards per route run at tight end while other young tight ends like Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid struggled in that area.
Ferguson had a slow start to the season with 15 or fewer yards in three of his first six games, but from Week 8 on after the Cowboys' bye week, he was a consistent producer. He was TE7 from that point on with 11.8 fantasy points per game. All of the stats shown in these tables and graphs are for the regular season only, but it’s worth noting he had by far the best game of his career in the wild card round, as he caught 10 passes for 93 yards and three touchdowns.
His PFF receiving grade over the last two seasons including the playoffs is sixth-highest, behind Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson and Sam LaPorta.
Ferguson earned more playing time as the 2023 season progressed. He averaged 66% of Dallas' offensive snaps over the first five weeks and 83% over the rest of the season, excluding the fourth quarter, which was frequently a blowout in one direction or the other. He similarly ran a pass route on 59% of Dallas' plays over the first five weeks and 83% of plays over the rest of the season.
When Ferguson is on the field, we could expect a higher target share. The Cowboys lost two of their five players in targets — Tony Pollard and Michael Gallup. They are turning toward Ezekiel Elliott and in-house replacements at wide receiver. This should mean slightly fewer targets at running back and wide receiver, which should mean more targets for Ferguson. The change at running back should lead the Cowboys to be even more pass-heavy, which should also benefit Ferguson. His biggest area of improvement would be the end-zone target rate, which ideally will improve after his wild card game.
Ferguson was TE9 last season and currently has an ADP of TE9, but everything is pointing up for him. His talent, situation, age, his play ignoring the first few weeks of last season when he first became a starter and including the playoffs, his competition for targets, and consistency with the coach and quarterback are all working for Ferguson. He is the clear-cut top option for anyone who missed out on a tight end in the first five rounds.
Editor's note: For a more complete look on Ferguson this season, check out his full Player Profile.
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