Fantasy Football: 3 wide receivers to fade at their current ADP in 2024

• Hesitance toward the Houston Texans’ ability to support three top-30 wide receivers: ADP suggests that Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell will all finish as top-30 players at their position, but at least one is bound to disappoint.

• Two second-year wide receivers who don’t project as strongly as their ADPs: Excitement around second-year players often raises the cost, but potential sophomore slumps aren’t out of the question for these two.

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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

Fantasy football drafts are starting in earnest here throughout August, which means that ADP is unlikely to change too wildly for the rest of the offseason. After diving into Sleeper’s current ADP, a few players stand out as slightly overvalued by fantasy managers that we’ll look to avoid at cost for the 2024 season.

Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans

• Sleeper ADP: 30.2
• Sleeper position ADP: WR16
• My rank: WR21

There’s a lot of faith being put in all of the Texans wide receivers right now, and understandably so, but three wide receivers going within the top 30 at the position according to ADP could leave someone on the outside looking in. At the very least, there’s a limited ceiling for each of those wide receivers, which is cause for concern for the older newcomer Diggs, who did have a solid year in 2023 but enters an entirely new system in 2024.

Diggs finished as the overall PPR WR9 last season, doing so as Josh Allen‘s primary target but a lot of his best games were front-loaded to the first half of the season prior to Joe Brady coming in as offensive coordinator. Diggs went from PPR WR3 from Weeks 1-10 to the PPR WR42 from Week 11-on. The Buffalo Bills‘ shift in offensive philosophy had a lot to do with this drop-off, but there is at least concern of a similar drop-off when he isn’t the primary target in Houston’s offense.

Both Nico Collins and Tank Dell have established connections with C.J. Stroud in Bobby Slowik’s offense, and both are closer to their prime than Diggs, who is now in his 30s. Diggs is coming off a season where he posted his lowest receiving grade (79.0) since 2019 – his last year with the Minnesota Vikings – while not being as effective as he once was. Diggs’ catchable reception rate (89.3%) also dipped to the lowest in his time with the Bills, and his yards per route run (1.89) dropped off significantly from last season (2.40). Diggs’ fantasy value came largely from his target rate (26.3%), which Collins (26.8%) and Dell (23.1%) are more than likely to carve into this season, putting a damper on Diggs’ ability to dominate targets himself. If/when that happens, it’ll be difficult for Diggs to live up to his current ADP, especially at this point in his career.

Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens

• Sleeper ADP: 51.7
• Sleeper position ADP: WR25
• My rank: WR29

Flowers is an exciting wide receiver coming off a strong rookie season. He has generated optimism that he’ll potentially improve in Year 2, so why fade him at his current cost of WR25 in the fifth round? One of the reasons exists on his team, as Mark Andrews is being drafted ahead of Flowers by just six spots in ADP. Andrews has consistently been the Ravens' dominant target earner over the past five seasons, and while Flowers did emerge as a threat himself in 2023, he had most of his best games when Andrews was sidelined with injury.

Looking back to last year, Andrews missed Week 1, as well as Weeks 12-17 during the fantasy season. In those six games, Flowers earned 0.31 PPR points per snap (WR14) and was the WR23 overall. In the games where Andrews was in the lineup, Flowers managed just 0.18 PPR points per snap (WR66) as the WR36 overall. There is a clear tendency from Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense to utilize the mismatch that is Mark Andrews as much as possible, which ultimately cuts down on the optimal opportunities for Flowers, as highlighted in the chart below.

2023 Weeks 2-11 with Mark Andrews in the lineup:

Flowers, himself could have a better season in Year 2 and carve out a role that would allow him to be similarly valued as Andrews, as his ADP suggests, but it’s a difficult ask for a young wide receiver without elite metrics as a rookie. Flowers’ metrics were good, but not so stellar that they point to a significant jump in Year 2, which included 1.64 yards per route (45th) and a 73.9 receiving grade (40th). Flowers can still have a good Year 2 but with the target competition and lower projectable metrics as a rookie, he ranks closer to WR30 than the top-24.

Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings

• Sleeper ADP: 30.2
• Sleeper position ADP: WR36
• My rank: WR38

Addison and Flowers share a lot of similarities heading into 2024. Both were first-round wide receivers coming off of solid rookie seasons, both posted average receiving metrics, and both made up a lot of their best fantasy performances while their team’s clear top receiving threat out of the lineup. It’s only fair that if Flowers makes the “fade” list, then so does Addison, even if my ranking is relatively close to ADP.

Addison’s rookie receiving metrics mostly put him outside the top 50 at his position last season, including his 69.7 receiving grade and 1.50 yards per route run. Across the entire season last year, his 17.0% target rate ranks as the lowest mark among all top-40 wide receivers in ADP this season. Addison played seven games without Justin Jefferson in the lineup, and two of those with Kirk Cousins still at quarterback. In those two games with Cousins, Addison delivered an overall PPR WR1 finish and PPR WR9 finish. With Cousins out, Addison’s best finish across the next five games was WR29. Unfortunately, Cousins is gone, Jefferson is back in as the top target, and Addison’s outlook isn’t quite as strong without those two major factors in his favor.

There is hope that without T.J. Hockenson likely back Addison’s role as the second target in Minnesota’s offense will allow him to flourish, but with news of J.J. McCarthy tearing his meniscus while Sam Darnold is the likely next man up, replicating Cousins' play in 2024 is very unlikely, which keeps expectations tempered this season. Again, the ADP is only slightly higher than my ranking, but what can I say, I’m (mostly) an optimistic person, and even still can’t find great reasons to expect much more from Addison in Year 2, so for now, he makes the “fade” list.