Fantasy Football: 3 players entering make-or-break seasons

• WR Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens: The downfield wide receiver now faces in-house competition for his specialized role.

• RB A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers: Dillon has the opportunity to assert himself as the team’s long-term starter.

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Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes

Talented NFL players sometimes fail to deliver consistently usable fantasy football results, but they remain mid-to-late-round targets due to their enticing advanced metrics. NFL teams will eventually reduce these players’ opportunities, opting instead to move on to new personnel possessing similar difference-making potential. The article below details three NFL veteran who are entering make-or-break seasons in 2024 by outlining their positives, negatives and potential range of outcomes. 

WR Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens selected former Minnesota wide receiver Rashod Bateman with the 2021 NFL draft’s 27th overall pick. His three-year NFL career is dotted with brilliant moments and lower-body injuries, resulting in a career-long stat line (157 targets, 97 receptions, 1,208 receiving yards and four touchdowns) worth 241.8 points-per-reception (PPR) points. For comparison, Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. finished as the Weeks 1-17 PPR WR13 last year, totaling 242.8 points. Bateman’s 63.7 PFF offense grade from 2021-to-2023 ties for 62nd among 83 NFL wide receivers with at least 1,400 offensive snaps. Pittman’s 78.6 PFF offense grade ranks 14th among 32 NFL wide receivers with at least 830 offensive snaps in 2023. Bateman enters a make-or-break season in 2024, now facing in-house competition for his starting role.

Bateman suffered a Grade 2 inguinal groin strain on August 10th, 2021. The ensuing surgical repair led to a Weeks 1-5 injured reserve stint. He was again listed on the injury report with an inguinal groin strain in November but remained active on game day. 

Bateman’s 2022 campaign featured a Week 1-3 hot streak that included two 59-yard performances, including one touchdown, sandwiching his second-ever 100-plus-yard showing in Week 2. A Week 4 Lisfranc injury derailed his season. Bateman opted for surgery in November after attempting to play through the pain in Weeks 7 and 8.

Bateman missed just one in 2023 following a Week 3 hamstring strain but finished as the WR84 in Weeks 1-17 PPR scoring. 

Bateman’s career receiving metrics show a volatile downfield target earner capable of producing at an elite level when healthy. 

Batemean’s career receiving metrics:

The front office gave Bateman a two-year, $12.87 million extension this offseason, though the $9.6 million in potential cap savings via a pre-June 1, 2025 release speaks volumes. The front office also drafted former North Carolina speedster, wide receiver Devontez Walker (6-foot-1, 193 pounds, 4.36-second 40-yard dash), in the 2024 NFL Draft’s fourth round. Walker bears a striking resemblance to Bateman (6-foot, 190 pounds, 4.43-second 40-yard dash). Among 100 Power Five wide receivers with at least 65 targets, Walker’s 18.2-yard average depth of target (aDot) ranks No. 1 overall. His 68.3 PFF receiving grade ties for 91st though, accurately reflecting his one-dimensional, Bateman-esque skillset. 

Bateman enters a make-or-break season in 2024.

QB Daniel Jones, New York Giants

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones returns from a Week 9 ACL tear to an upgraded offensive line and a budding pass-catching corps. He enters a make-or-break sixth NFL season, as he brought one winning season to New York, a 9-7-1 campaign in 2022, since the front office drafted him with the 2019 NFL Draft’s sixth overall pick. His 63.0 PFF offense grade ranks 33rd among 41 NFL quarterbacks with at least 300 offensive snaps. 

The front office bolstered the offensive line by signing free agents, right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor and guard Jon Runyan, this offseason. Among 63 NFL offensive tackles with at least 550 offensive snaps, Eluemunor’s 71.5 PFF offense grade ranks 35th and among 62 NFL guards with at least 550 offensive snaps, Runyan’s 62.4 PFF pass-blocking grade ranks 30th.

New York’s Week 1 kickoff on September 8th places Jones a couple of days past the 9.5-post-op mark – a little more than two weeks past the minimal recovery timeline needed following ACL reconstruction (ACLR). His fantasy-friendly rushing ability will likely be negatively impacted well into the season. 

Jones’ 354 rushing attempts from 2019-to-2023 rank eighth among NFL quarterbacks. Among 31 NFL quarterbacks with at least 130 rushing attempts, Jones ties for 18th in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.08) and ranks 13th in yards after contact per rushing attempt (2.2) and fifth in yards per rushing attempt (5.7). 

Jones demonstrates adequate NFL-starter accuracy but his steadily declining target depth is concerning. Among 21 NFL quarterbacks with at least 2,000 dropbacks from 2019-to-2023, Jones’ 64.2% completion rate ranks 17th and his 7.5-yard aDot ranks 20th. Jones’ aDot dropped each season from 2019-to-2022, beginning with an enticing 8.4 yards and eventually plummeting to just 6.5. It improved slightly to 6.9 yards in 2023, though he produced a career-low 29.4% past-the-sticks throwing rate. 

Jones’ 2024 prospects are aided by rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers sure-handed slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson and post-catch producer Darius Slayton. 

Nabers provides Jones with an elite No. 1 wide receiver skillset capable of increasing Jones’ per-play efficiency. Among 22 Power Five wide receivers with at least 100 targets, Nabers ranks seventh in yards after the catch per reception (6.6), third in missed tackles forced (30) and first in yards per route run (3.64). The 93.1 PFF receiving grade he earned in his unanimous All-American 2023 season ranks No. 1 overall. 

Robinson (79.0%) and tight end Daniel Bellinger (89.3%) offer surehands, ranking second and first, respectively, among New York pass catchers with at least 25 targets.

Fourth-round rookie tight end Theo Johnson averaged 12.4 yards per reception over the last two years, the 14th-best among 34 Power Five tight ends with at least 65 targets during that span. Fifth-round rookie wide receiver-to-running back convert Tyrone Tracy’s 19.4% target rate ranks ninth among 40 Power Five running backs with at least 25 targets. 

Jones’ ACLR remains an issue but the improved offensive infrastructure is strong enough to erase potential excuses over paltry play. 

The team signed free agent quarterback Drew Lock following a 2023 season that yielded a 62.2 PFF passing grade, second-best of his career, and career-highs in yards per passing attempt (7.1) and adjusted completion rate (75.0%). 

Jones’ 2024 season is his make-or-break campaign.

RB A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers are set to host a season-long backfield competition for the team’s long-term Nos. 1 and 2 running back roles in 2024. The front office churned backfield personnel this offseason, allowing stalwart starting running back Aaron Jones to depart in free agency while retaining fifth-year running back A.J. Dillon on a one-year, $2.575 million prove-it deal. Dillon’s 2024 season results could elevate him to a featured starter role, a lead back role or leave him toiling as a permanent backup. It is his make-or-break season. Among 64 NFL running backs with at least 200 offensive snaps, Jones’ 80.9 PFF offense grade ties for ninth and Dillon’s 75.7 PFF offense grade ranks 22nd. 

Green Bay’s front office drafted Dillon (6-foot, 247 pounds, 1.53-second 10-yard split) as an accomplished size-speed prospect out of Boston College in the 2020 NFL draft’s second round. His four-year NFL profile features consistently strong PFF grading, chaotic per-play efficiency and proficient passing-game talent.

He cleared 1,000 yards from scrimmage just once in four seasons, finishing as the Weeks 1-17 PPR RB22 in 2021. 

Dillon has maintained a 76.1 PFF rushing grade or better in all four seasons and has twice finished with a 64.8 PFF receiving grade or better. Among 22 NFL running backs with at least 600 rushing attempts from 2020-to-2023, Dillon’s 91.9 PFF rushing grade ranks sixth.

Dillon’s per-play rushing efficiency has steadily ticked downward each season. Both Dillon’s yards per rushing attempt and yards after contact per rushing attempt have steadily ticked downward each season, with the former ultimately dropping from 5.2-to-3.4 yards and the latter dropping from 3.4-to-2.7 yards. His missed tackles forced rate decreased from 0.31-to-0.12 from 2020-to-2022, before plateauing at 0.12 in 2023. 

Dillon’s erratic results in scoring position jeopardize his would-be-specialized role. He boasts two seasons with a green zone first-down and/or touchdown conversion rate at 37.5% or better, woven between two sub-28.0% seasons. His 2023 11.1% rate ranks dead last among 29 NFL running backs with at least 15 qualifying attempts.

Dillon’s pass-catching results are similarly unstable, though he ended 2023 with a career-high 10.3 yards after the catch per reception average, ranking fourth among 51 NFL running backs with at least 25 targets. 

Green Bay’s backfield now includes high-priced free-agent signee, running back Josh Jacobs, whose $23.8 million in potential savings, with a pre-June 1, 2025 release loom large. Jacobs’ 66.0 PFF offense grade ranks 31st among 33 NFL running backs with at least 475 offensive snaps but he has already suffered two lower-body soft tissue injuries since joining the team. 

Third-round rookie running back Marshawn Lloyd (5-foot-9, 210 pounds) possesses a complete three-down profile but a hip injury sidelined him for the first week of training camp, costing him valuable repetitions in the summer pecking-order battle. Lloyd’s 80.8 PFF offense grade ranks 27th among 51 Power Five running backs with at least 370 offensive snaps.

The injuries create an opening for Dillon that he can ill afford to miss out on. His talent is evident but his inability to earn the coaches’ trust thus far has prevented him from assuming the fantasy-friendly role he is capable of holding. Dillon enters a make-or-break 2024 season.